Monthly Archives: September 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th September, 2014

Summary: This correction is still incomplete. An adjustment to the hourly charts for recent movement sees all three possibilities of a flat, triangle and combination still open. I expect Gold to continue to be range bound until Thursday. The breakout when it comes should be downwards.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Main Wave Count

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

On the weekly chart extend the triangle trend lines of primary wave 4 outwards. The point in time at which they cross over may be the point in time at which primary wave 5 ends. This does not always work, but it works often enough to look out for. It is a rough guideline only and not definitive. A trend line placed from the end of primary wave 4 to the target of primary wave 5 at this point in time shows primary wave 5 would take a total 26 weeks to reach that point, and that is what I will expect. Primary wave 5 has begun its 12th week.

At 956.97 primary wave 5 would reach equality in length with primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 is $12.54 short of 1.618 the length of primary wave 1, and equality between primary waves 5 and 1 would give a perfect Elliott relationship for this downwards movement.

However, when triangles take their time and move close to the apex of the triangle, as primary wave 4 has (looking at this on a weekly chart is clearer) the movement following the triangle is often shorter and weaker than expected. If the target at 956.97 is wrong it may be too low. In the first instance I expect it is extremely likely that primary wave 5 will move at least below the end of primary wave 3 at 1,180.40 to avoid a truncation. When intermediate waves (1) through to (4) within primary wave 5 are complete I will recalculate the target at intermediate degree because this would have a higher accuracy. I cannot do that yet; I can only calculate it at primary degree.

Minor wave 3 is $9.65 longer than 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. This variation is less than 10% the length of minor wave 3 and so I would consider it an acceptable Fibonacci ratio. Just.

Movement comfortably below 1,180.84 would provide further confidence in this main wave count as at that stage an alternate idea which sees primary wave 4 as continuing would be invalidated.

I have drawn a Fibonacci retracement the length of minor wave 3. Minor wave 4 has so far reached up to the 0.236 at 1,234.34. If minor wave 4 continues as a triangle this will be its maximum depth. If it continues as a flat correction then it may yet move higher to the 0.382 at 1,250.78 Fibonacci ratio. If it continues as a combination then about the 0.236 Fibonacci ratio will be close to its maximum depth.

Draw a channel about intermediate wave (1): draw the first trend line from the lows labeled minor waves 1 to 3, then place a copy on the high labeled minor wave 2. If it completes as a flat correction minor wave 4 may find resistance and may end about the upper edge of this blue channel. If it overshoots the channel it should find some resistance at the upper blue trend line before breaking above it.

There is a nice morning doji star on this daily chart which supports this wave count. A morning doji star is a bottom reversal pattern, indicating the prior bear trend of minor wave 3 should change to a new trend. This new trend may be either upwards or sideways, and the wave count expects it is sideways.

There are still three structural possibilities for this fourth wave correction: a flat, a triangle or a combination. If fourth wave correction continues for another two days / sessions it may end in a total Fibonacci eight days, this Thursday. This expectation is the same for all three hourly wave counts.

All three hourly wave counts below are viable and all three scenarios must be considered. At this stage I do not favour either of the three hourly wave counts. All expect Gold to remain range bound in a consolidation phase probably for two more days at least.

Hourly Wave Count – Triangle

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly Triangle 2014

Minor wave 4 may still be unfolding as a triangle.

Within a triangle one of the subwaves is often a more complicated and time consuming double zigzag. This may have been minute wave b.

Minute wave b is a 113% correction of minute wave a. The triangle would be a running contracting or barrier triangle.

Within both a contracting and barrier triangle minute wave c may not move beyond the end of minute wave a above 1,236.69. Minute wave c would be very likely to end at the upper pink trend line drawn from the end of minute wave a to the end of minuette wave (x) within minute wave b as it is very common for the subwaves within triangles to touch the triangle trend lines.

Within a contracting triangle minute wave d may not move beyond the end of minute wave b below 1,204.61.

Within a barrier triangle minute wave d may end about the same level as minute wave b at 1,204.61. In practice this means minute wave d may end slightly below 1,204.61 as long as the b-d trend line remains essentially flat. This lower invalidation point is not black and white. This is the only Elliott wave rule which has any grey area.

Minute wave e may not move beyond the end of minute wave c and is most likely to end short of the a-c trend line.

Only one of the five subwaves of a triangle may be a more complicated double. This means all the remaining triangle subwaves of c, d and e must be simple A-B-C corrective structures, and they are most likely to be single zigzags. This triangle could end in just two more days, or it could take a little longer.

Hourly Wave Count – Combination

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Combination 2014

At this stage a combination is also entirely possible, and with the duration of minuette wave (b) this idea is now taking on a more typical look.

It is my experience over the years that when one expects a triangle is unfolding it is always necessary to consider a combination alongside it. Often what you think is a triangle completing turns out to be a combination, as the triangle invalidates itself just before the structure ends.

The first structure in the double combination was a zigzag labeled minute wave w. The double is joined by a three, a zigzag, in the opposite direction labeled minute wave x. The second structure in the double combination is a flat correction labeled minute wave y.

Within the flat correction minuette wave (b) is a 109% correction of minuette wave (a) and so the flat is an expanded flat. Expanded flats most commonly have C waves which are 1.618 the length of their A waves. At 1,244 minuette wave (c) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (a).

Within minuette wave (c) at 1,230 subminuette wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of subminuette wave iv.

Subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i below 1,204.61.

The purpose of double combinations is to move price sideways and take up time. The second structure in the double normally ends close to the end of the first structure. At 1,244 minute wave y would end reasonably close to 1,236.69.

Hourly Wave Count – Flat

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly Flat 2014

A flat correction for minor wave 4 is still possible, with a time consuming double zigzag for minute wave b within it.

Minute wave b is a 113% correction of minute wave a so this is an expanded flat correction. At 1,251 minute wave c would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave a and minor wave 4 would reach up to the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 3.

Minute wave c could complete within two more days or sessions, or it may require a little longer. Within minute wave c at 1,230 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

Within minute wave c minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) below 1,204.61.

This analysis is published about 06:30 p.m. EST.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th September, 2014

Downwards movement continued as expected for Silver. I do not think minor wave 1 is over yet though; we should see a final fifth wave down to complete it. Thereafter, I would expect an upwards correction for minor wave 2.

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Silver weekly 2014

Downwards movement subdivides so far as an incomplete double zigzag. This cannot be an impulse if the movement which I have labeled primary wave X is correct as a triangle because a triangle may not be the sole structure in a second wave position.

The first zigzag in the double is labeled primary wave W. The double is joined by a “three”, a triangle, in the opposite direction labeled primary wave X.

The second zigzag for primary wave Y is moving price lower to deepen the correction, and so this structure has a typical double zigzag look in that it has a clear slope against the main trend.

Within primary wave Y the triangle for intermediate wave (B) is now a complete barrier triangle. Movements following triangles, and particularly barrier triangles, have a tendency to be relatively short and brief (more common), or sometimes they are a very long extension. The higher target has a higher probability for this reason.

Within primary wave Y at 11.52 intermediate wave (C) would reach 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 5.309 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).

Within primary wave Y intermediate wave (A) lasted 30 weeks and intermediate wave (B) lasted exactly a Fibonacci 54 weeks. I would expect intermediate wave (C) to end in a total 21 or 34 weeks. So far it has lasted 12 weeks and may yet continue towards the target for a further 9 or 22 weeks, if it exhibits a Fibonacci duration. However, please note, Silver does not reliably exhibit Fibonacci durations nor do its waves reliably exhibit Fibonacci ratios to each other in terms of duration.

Silver daily 2014

Current sideways movement looks very much like a triangle. A triangle may not be the sole corrective structure for a second wave. Therefore, I do not think this is minor wave 2 and so minor wave 1 must be incomplete. This triangle looks like a typical fourth wave.

Minute wave iii is 0.29 short of 4.236 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 0.14 short of 1.618 the length of minuette wave (iii).

When minute wave iv is complete then I would be able to calculate a target down for you for minute wave v. I cannot do that yet as I do not know where minute wave v begins. I would expect it is very likely to be only equal in length with minute wave i which was only 0.523.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory above 20.585.

When minor wave 1 is a completed five wave impulse then minor wave 2 should begin. Minor wave 2 should move price higher, it should be choppy and overlapping. It should last at least two weeks and probably longer.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th September, 2014

As expected GDX has moved lower. The target for minute wave iii to end was 22.32 and I expected it to be met one to two weeks after last analysis. It looks like it may have ended at 22.02 one and a half weeks after last analysis.

I expect a little sideways movement to end about 22.78, followed by more downwards movement to new lows.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX monthly 2013

The clearest piece of movement is the downwards movement from the high. This looks most like a first, second and third wave. This may be the start of a larger correction.

Intermediate wave (3) is $1.06 longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) there are no Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $2.19 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $0.63 longer than 0.382 the length of minute wave iii.

I have played with how to best draw a channel about this downwards movement, which does not fit perfectly into a channel drawn using either of Elliott’s techniques but does fit best if his first technique is used: draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy on the high of intermediate wave (2).

GDX daily 2013

Intermediate wave (5) must subdivide as a five wave structure, either an impulse or an ending diagonal. So far the first five down for minor wave 1 is incomplete. If minor wave 1 completes as a five wave impulse then intermediate wave (5) must be unfolding as an impulse, because an ending diagonal requires all the subwaves to be zigzags.

Minute wave iii is 0.30 longer than 2.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: there is no adequate Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (iii) and (i), and minuette wave (v) is 0.40 longer than 0.618 the length of minuette wave (iii).

Minute wave ii lasted 21 days and was a deep 93% expanded flat correction of minute wave i. So far it looks like minute wave iv may also be an expanded flat, but it is much more shallow. Because there is no alternation in structure between minute waves ii and iv for this wave count, it is possible that my analysis of the end of minute wave iii and the start of minute wave iv is wrong. Minute wave iii may not be over and may yet move lower.

However, because minute wave iii has a close Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and because within minute wave iii there is a good ratio with perfect alternation and almost perfect proportion between minuette waves (ii) and (iv) so far this wave count looks correct. It may be that minute wave iv continues sideways as a running triangle to provide alternation with the flat of minute wave ii, or it could be more time consuming as a double combination with the first structure a flat.

Overall the structure for minor wave 1 down is incomplete. When this piece of sideways movement is done I would expect the breakout to be downwards.

At 14.15 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). This target is likely to be several weeks away.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th September, 2014

Last Elliott wave analysis expected the new week to begin with a continuation of the current correction. Gold remains in a consolidation phase, as expected.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th September, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th September, 2014

Upwards movement was expected for the first hourly chart, sideways movement was expected for the second, and there are still three possible Elliott wave structures which may be unfolding.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th September, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th September, 2014

Downwards movement was expected for both the main and alternate hourly Elliott wave counts.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th September, 2014

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th September, 2014

I had expected 18.335 to be met by 19th September, but price target was too high. Price made a low at 17.347 on 22nd September, and I expect that a second wave correction began there for Silver.

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Silver weekly 2014

Downwards movement subdivides so far as an incomplete double zigzag. This cannot be an impulse if the movement which I have labeled primary wave X is correct as a triangle because a triangle may not be the sole structure in a second wave position.

The first zigzag in the double is labeled primary wave W. The double is joined by a “three”, a triangle, in the opposite direction labeled primary wave X.

The second zigzag for primary wave Y is moving price lower to deepen the correction, and so this structure has a typical double zigzag look in that it has a clear slope against the main trend.

Within primary wave Y the triangle for intermediate wave (B) is now a complete barrier triangle. Movements following triangles, and particularly barrier triangles, have a tendency to be relatively short and brief (more common), or sometimes they are a very long extension. The higher target has a higher probability for this reason.

Within primary wave Y at 11.52 intermediate wave (C) would reach 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 5.309 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).

Within primary wave Y intermediate wave (A) lasted 30 weeks, and intermediate wave (B) lasted exactly a Fibonacci 54 weeks. I would expect intermediate wave (C) to end in a total 21 or 34 weeks. So far it has lasted 11 weeks and may yet continue towards the target for a further 10 or 23 weeks, if it exhibits a Fibonacci duration. However, please note, Silver does not reliably exhibit Fibonacci durations nor do its waves reliably exhibit Fibonacci ratios to each other in terms of duration.

Silver daily 2014

Minor wave 1 is now a complete impulse with a strong fifth wave typical of commodities.

Minor wave 1 does not fit nicely into a channel drawn using either of Elliott’s techniques so I have drawn a best fit channel instead. A breach of this trend channel on the upside would provide trend channel confirmation and confidence in this wave count.

Minor wave 2 should last at least one week, and most likely will be longer. If minor wave 2 is a deep zigzag it may be sharp and quick. If minor wave 2 is a more time consuming flat or combination it may last longer. Minor wave 2 is most likely to reach up to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio at 19.852, but it does not have to be this deep. The 0.382 Fibonacci ratio should be the first expectation. When price reaches up there the development of the structure within minor wave 2 may illuminate whether or not it will continue higher.

Minor wave 2 is most likely to be a single or double zigzag. It may also be a flat or combination, and these structures allow for a new low as part of minor wave 2. For this reason there can be no lower invalidation point for this wave count at this stage. It is impossible to tell which corrective structure will unfold at the start of a correction, only to say which is more likely.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 21.579.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd September, 2014

Upwards movement for Tuesday was expected. Movement above the channel on the hourly chart and above 1,228.67 provided confirmation of the Elliott wave count.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd September, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd September, 2014

A new low below 1,213.84 invalidated the main hourly wave count. The alternate hourly wave count allowed for downwards movement and had a target range of 1,211 – 1,206. No trend change has yet been confirmed.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd September, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th September, 2014

Price made a new low and we have another red candlestick which was expected, although price has fallen $2.84 short of the upper edge of the target zone.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th September, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th September, 2014

Since last analysis price has moved sideways to complete a small green candlestick for Thursday’s session (I had expected a red candlestick). The Elliott wave count remains mostly the same and the target is now calculated at three wave degrees.

Summary: The structure is incomplete. I expect more downwards movement. The new target for it to end is 1,211 to 1,206 and should be met in 24 hours.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Main Wave Count

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

Extend the triangle trend lines of primary wave 4 outwards. The point in time at which they cross over may be the point in time at which primary wave 5 ends. This does not always work, but it works often enough to look out for. It is a rough guideline only and not definitive. A trend line placed from the end of primary wave 4 to the target of primary wave 5 at this point in time shows primary wave 5 would take a total 26 weeks to reach that point, and that is what I will expect. Primary wave 4 has just begun its 10th week.

The black (B)-(D) trend line is clearly breached. I have confidence that primary wave 5 has begun. The black (B)-(D) trend line is now also clearly breached on the weekly chart. This is significant.

At 956.97 primary wave 5 would reach equality in length with primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 is $12.54 short of 1.618 the length of primary wave 1, and equality between primary waves 5 and 1 would give a perfect Elliott relationship for this downwards movement.

However, when triangles take their time and move close to the apex of the triangle, as primary wave 4 has (looking at this on a weekly chart is clearer) the movement following the triangle is often shorter and weaker than expected. If the target at 956.97 is wrong it may be too low. In the first instance I expect it is extremely likely that primary wave 5 will move at least below the end of primary wave 3 at 1,180.40 to avoid a truncation. When intermediate waves (1) through to (4) within primary wave 5 are complete I will recalculate the target at intermediate degree because this would have a higher accuracy. I cannot do that yet; I can only calculate it at primary degree.

Minor wave 3 has now passed 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. If minor wave 3 ends within the new target zone it may still exhibit an adequate Fibonacci ratio of 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. I consider any variation less than 10% to be adequate.

Movement comfortably below 1,180.84 would invalidate the alternate daily wave count below and provide further confidence in this main wave count.

When minor wave 3 is over (I expect this to be over within 24 hours, before next analysis) I will draw a Fibonacci retracement along its entire length and expect minor wave 4 to correct up to the 0.236 or 0.382 Fibonacci ratio, so that there is alternation with the deep correction of minor wave 2. I expect this tendency to alternation may be stronger than a tendency for corrections following fifth wave extensions to reach up to the end of the second wave within the extended fifth wave.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2014

Subminuette wave v is still incomplete, must subdivide as a five wave structure, and is unfolding as an impulse. I have adjusted the analysis of micro wave 2 within it because sideways movement for Thursday looks so clear as its counterpart fourth wave correction. This expects just one final short push down for micro wave 5 to complete the entire structure of minor wave 3 at all wave degrees.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between micro waves 1 and 3. It is more likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between micro wave 5 and either of 3 or 1. At 1,211 micro wave 5 would reach 1.618 the length of micro wave 1.

At 1,210 subminuette wave v would reach 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i. Because there is no adequate Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves iii and i I would expect it is very likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio for subminuette wave v to either of i or iii.

At 1,206 minuette wave (v) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (iii). There is no adequate Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (i) and (iii) so I would again expect it is very likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between minuette wave (v) and either of (i) or (iii).

This gives a $5 target zone calculated at three wave degrees. The upper edge of the zone is calculated at the lowest wave degree, and the lower edge of the zone is calculated at the highest wave degree. I favour the upper edge of the zone for this reason.

Draw a channel about minuette wave (v) using Elliott’s second technique: draw the first trend line from the highs of subminuette waves ii to iv, then place a parallel copy on the low of subminuette wave iii. Look for the downwards edge of this channel to provide support. This may be where this downwards movement for minor wave 3 ends.

Within subminuette wave v micro wave 4 may not move into micro wave 1 price territory above 1,231.74. *edit: this price point was previously given incorrectly as 1,234.74

When subminuette wave v may be seen as a completed five wave impulse then subsequent movement above 1,234.74 would provide price confirmation that minor wave 3 in its entirety is over. At that stage also movement above the upper edge of the channel would provide trend channel confirmation of a trend change at minor degree also.

Alternate Wave Count

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly Alternate 2014

I would judge this wave count to have a very low probability only because of proportion between primary waves 2 and 4. The main wave count sees them almost exactly of the same duration, with primary wave 2 lasting 53 weeks and primary wave 4 lasting 54 weeks. This alternate would see primary wave 4 as much longer in duration than primary wave 2. It is the proportion between second and fourth waves within an impulse which gives the wave count what is called the “right look”. This alternate would still have the right look, but it would not look as good as the main wave count.

If intermediate wave (D) is continuing it can only be as a double zigzag. For a contracting triangle intermediate wave (D) may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (B) below 1,180.84. For a barrier triangle intermediate wave (D) should end about the same level as intermediate wave (B), as long as the (B)-(D) trend line is essentially flat. In practice this means that intermediate wave (D) could end slightly below 1,180.84 and the wave count would remain valid. Unfortunately, this invalidation point is not black and white.

If intermediate wave (D) is a double zigzag, then intermediate wave (C) must be seen as a single zigzag because only one of the five subwaves of a triangle may be a double.

It is possible to see intermediate wave (C) as a zigzag, but to do so a rather obvious triangle must be ignored after the end of minor wave A. The main wave count sees a triangle in that position. I think this reduces the probability of this alternate.

Within intermediate wave (C) the subdivision within minuette wave (i) of minute wave iii of minor wave C is problematic. On the hourly chart this upwards wave subdivides as a double zigzag and does not fit well at all as a five wave structure. This is another reason why I would prefer a wave count which sees a triangle in that position because the subdivisions of those waves fit a triangle perfectly. This further reduces the probability of this alternate.

This alternate wave count does not diverge from the main wave count at this stage, and will not diverge for another one or two weeks. The main wave count expects downwards movement to complete minor wave 3 and this alternate expects downwards movement to complete minute wave c. Thereafter, the main wave count would expect upwards movement for minor wave 4 and this alternate wave count would expect upwards movement for intermediate wave (E). If at that stage price moves above 1,280.35 for that upwards movement then the main wave count would be invalidated and this alternate confirmed.

This analysis is published about 04:29 p.m. EST.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th September, 2014

Price continued lower as expected, a little. The target of this third wave to end was 85.88. It has likely ended at 90.43, $4.55 short of the target.

Summary: In the short term I expect a final fifth wave down to complete minor wave 1. The target is 84.65 which may be met in about 3 – 4 weeks time. The mid – long term target remains at 74.53. This target may be months away.

Click on charts to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2014

This wave count sees US Oil as still in the early stages of a third wave down at intermediate degree.

The target for intermediate wave (3) remains at 74.53 where it would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). Intermediate wave (1) lasted a Fibonacci 13 weeks and intermediate wave (2) lasted 28 weeks. So far within intermediate wave (3) minor wave 1 has lasted 14 weeks and it is still incomplete. It looks like intermediate wave (3) will be much longer in duration than intermediate wave (1) and maybe intermediate wave (2) as well. If intermediate wave (3) exhibits a Fibonacci duration it may be either or 34 or 55 weeks. That would see it end in another 20 or 41 weeks. However, this is a very rough guideline only. Intermediate wave (1) may not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio in terms of duration to intermediate wave (1) as these relationships in terms of duration are not reliable for US Oil.

I have drawn a base channel about intermediate waves (1) and (2). Minor wave 1 downwards may end when price finds support at the lower edge of this channel.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1, and because this is a second wave correction within a third wave at intermediate degree minor wave 2 may be more brief and shallow than second waves are normally. I would not expect minor wave 2 to breach the upper edge of this base channel because second waves of lower degrees do not normally breach base channels drawn about first and second waves one or more degrees higher.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 107.54.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

The structure of minor wave 1 is most likely still incomplete.

Within minor wave 1 so far minute wave iii is just 0.52 short of 6.854 the length of minute wave i. We may not see a Fibonacci ratio between minute wave v and either of iii or i, so the target for minor wave 1 down is now best calculated at minuette degree within minute wave v. But that cannot be done until close to the end of this movement.

At 88.48 minute wave v would reach 0.618 the length of minute wave iii. This target may be met within 3 – 4 weeks.

This wave count expects that minute wave iv is over. If it is over here there is perfect alternation between minute waves ii and iv: minute wave ii is a deep 92% expanded flat correction and minute wave iv is a very shallow 28% zigzag. Minute wave ii lasted 4 days and minute wave iv lasted 3 days, and this close proportion gives the wave count the right look.

I have drawn a best fit channel about minor wave 1. I would expect minute wave v to find support at the lower edge. Along the way down upwards corrections should find resistance at the upper edge. If price breaches the upper edge of the channel before minute wave v downwards is complete then this wave count would reduce in probability.

Within minute wave v no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 95.18.

If this wave count is breached by upwards movement it is possible that minute wave iv is continuing further as a double zigzag. Alternatively, my wave count within minor wave 1 is wrong and upwards movement could be the start of minor wave 2.

There are too many problems with the alternate I had in last analysis so I will not publish it at this stage because the probability of it is so low. It too would expect downwards movement at this stage, so there is no divergence.