Yearly Archives: 2017

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th April, 2017

On Balance Volume gave a signal early in the week that a deeper pullback may unfold. Price found support at the Fibonacci 55 day moving average before turning upwards.

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th April, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th April, 2017

Upwards movement continues and price has remained within the upper half of the channel on the hourly chart, which was expected at this stage.

Trading advice is given to members to manage long positions towards the end of this week.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th April, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th April, 2017

Upwards movement continues as expected. Members have been advised to move stops up now to protect some profit. Profit targets are still the same. A new channel on the hourly chart will be used to manage long positions.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th April, 2017

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th April, 2017

Again, last week expected downwards movement from US Oil but price continues higher. The main Elliott wave count was invalidated leaving only one wave count now, which was last week’s alternate.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th April, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th April, 2017

A classic upwards breakout has unfolded as expected. In last analysis members were advised to enter a hedge or just enter long. With stops for long positions just below 1,240.24 or 1,221 (depending on trading strategy), members should now have profitable long positions. Short hedges, if entered, should have been automatically closed just above 1,269.72.

Trading advice for profit taking and managing long positions is given today.

It is time to step back and look at the bigger picture. Today’s analysis updates monthly and weekly charts.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th April, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th April, 2017

The breakout from a consolidation zone has still not happened. The longer price coils between support and resistance, the more violent the breakout will be.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th April, 2017

Trading Room – 9th April, 2017

Today’s Trading Room looks at Copper, Natural Gas and GBPUSD.

To learn what the Trading Room is about see first Trading Room analysis here.

Trading Room will focus on classic technical analysis. Elliott wave analysis will be for support and for targets / invalidation points.

Copper (Spot)

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Copper Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Last Trading Room advice to Elliott Wave Gold members advised to enter short with a stop just above 2.717. Members were advised that short positions should become profitable within 24 hours, which is what happened, and that stops should have been then moved to breakeven. The whipsaw of the 5th of April should have closed short positions for no loss.

Copper is now range bound with resistance about 2.70 and support about 2.59 (with overshoots). Volatility declines as price moves sideways, ATR remains very low and flat, and ADX indicates a consolidating market.

In the short term, the very long lower wick for the candlestick of the 7th of April indicates upwards movement is likely to begin the new trading week.

TREND LINE

Copper Chart Monthly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Copper has found very strong resistance at the green trend line, which goes back to at least August 2011. The doji candlestick for February puts the trend from up to neutral.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

Copper Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The upper edge of the blue channel has provided resistance, with a strong overshoot for the 30th of March. Copper may be ready to move lower in a third wave at three degrees now and this should see an increase in downwards momentum.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

Natural Gas

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Natural Gas Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Last trading advice for Natural Gas to Elliott Wave Gold members on the 31st of March was:

A trade set up is not seen at this time. Look for price to pullback to touch the green Magee trend line on the TA chart. If that happens, then enter long with a stop just below the line. Allow for overshoots, but exit long positions if the line is breached.

The Magee trend line was touched again on the 4th of April. This was the signal to enter long according to trading advice given. That best case entry point would have been at the low of the day at 3.122, but in reality members may not have entered exactly at the price point where price touched the line. However, any long positions should now be profitable and stops may be moved up to protect a little profit.

The Magee trend line may be used now as a trailing stop for long positions.

ADX indicates an upwards trend and RSI allows further room for price to rise. Stochastics is overbought and exhibits divergence with price, but this oscillator may remain extreme for long periods of time when this market trends. The bottom line is any pullbacks may be expected to find support at the green Magee trend line.

On Balance Volume is now bound within a small range. Watch this carefully; if it breaks below the yellow support line, it would indicate a deeper pullback may be underway; if it breaks above the purple resistance line, it would indicate an increase in upwards momentum.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

Natural Gas Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The last Elliott wave count was invalidated with a new high this week above 3.174. Cycle wave b may be continuing higher as a double zigzag.

Natural Gas Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

MACD indicates an increase in momentum to support this third wave up.

When minor wave 3 is complete, then minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory below 3.088.

The gold channel’s lower edge is the same as the green Magee trend line on the daily technical analysis chart. Price should continue to find support at the lower edge while minor wave 3 continues.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

GBPUSD

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

GBPUSD Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Price looked like it was forming a Pennant pattern. What StockCharts data does not show today is the daily candlestick for the 7th of April that broke out of the pattern to the downside. The candlestick is shown today on FXCM data below.

VOLUME ANALYSIS

GBPUSD Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

On Balance Volume gives a bearish signal with a break below the short term yellow support line. The downwards breakout from the pennant pattern has support from volume for a strong downwards day.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

GBPUSD Chart Monthly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave c needs to complete as a five wave structure. The final fifth wave is incomplete and may only have just begun. The target expects to see the most likely Fibonacci ratio between primary waves 5 and 1.

GBPUSD Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave 4 fits perfectly as a regular contracting triangle, offering perfect alternation with the zigzag of primary wave 2. Primary wave 2 lasted 2 months and primary wave 4 lasted 6 months. Triangles are usually longer lasting structures than zigzags, so this disproportion is not only acceptable but should be expected. This wave count has the right look.

The breakout from the triangle should be down.

Within minor wave 3, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 1.25620.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

TRADING ROOM SUMMARY TABLES

OPEN POSITIONS

Trading Room Open Positions 2017
Click table to enlarge.

Trading advice for gold given to Elliott Wave Gold members will be included in Trading Room summary tables. However, so that it remains private for Elliott Wave Gold members only, it will not be included in Trading Room posts.

CLOSED POSITIONS

Trading Room Closed Positions March 2017
Click table to enlarge.

Each month a new “closed positions” table will begin. To see all closed positions for March 2017 see the last Trading Room post for March here.

RECOMMENDATIONS

[Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

 

DISCLAIMER

As always, it is essential that anyone using this analysis for trading advice manages risk carefully. Follow my two Golden Rules:

1. Always use a stop.

2. Never invest more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

Trading is about probabilities, not certainties. Failure to follow my two Golden Rules of trading indicates failure to manage risk.

Accept that this analysis may be wrong. It is impossible for any analyst to predict with certainty what a market will do next.

This analysis is published @ 06:48 p.m. EST.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th April, 2017

A strong upwards movement was expected on Friday. This is what happened, but then price reversed and retraced almost all of the upwards movement.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th April, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th April, 2017

An upwards breakout was again expected, but price remains range bound.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th April, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th April, 2017

Upwards movement was expected. Price moved lower, but has rebounded strongly after the session closed. Downwards movement remained above the invalidation point on the hourly chart.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th April, 2017

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th April, 2017

A pullback was expected for Silver. Price continued higher with a small sideways movement during the week.

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th April, 2017

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4th April, 2017

Price has moved higher over the last few days.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4th April, 2017