Yearly Archives: 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th March, 2017

Price moved strongly higher exactly as the Elliott wave count expected for a third wave up. Targets remain the same.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th March, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th March, 2017

Price has moved lower which was allowed for but not what was expected. Price remains above the invalidation point on the hourly chart.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th March, 2017

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th March, 2017

Last weekly analysis expected a violent downwards breakout as likely. This is exactly what happened.

Alternate wave counts are now invalidated.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th March, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th March, 2017

Price has moved overall higher as expected from the main hourly Elliott wave count in last analysis.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th March, 2017

Trading Room – 13th March, 2017

Today’s Trading Room looks at Copper, US Oil, NGas, USD Index, EURBGP and USDJPY.

To learn what the Trading Room is about see first Trading Room analysis here.

Trading Room will focus on classic technical analysis. Elliott wave analysis will be for support and for targets / invalidation points.

Copper

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Copper Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Volume supports downwards movement. Copper has broken below support and is now trending down.

Lighter volume for the last upwards session is slightly bearish, as is the long upper wick. On Balance Volume is at resistance.

Two concerns: Price may yet move higher before it turns back down and ATR is still declining.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

Copper Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The invalidation point is not too far away. A small fourth wave correction may be complete.

The next wave down may exhibit some increase in momentum as it’s a fifth wave for a commodity.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

US Oil (WTI Crude – Spot)

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USOil Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

RSI and Stochastics can remain extreme for reasonable periods of time when US Oil trends. Oversold conditions for these two indicators does not necessarily mean a low must be in place.

Very strong volume over the last three days supports downwards movement.

Sometimes after a breakout price curves back to retest prior support or resistance. It is possible here that US Oil may turn up for a test of resistance about 50.70. However, this does not always happen.

HOURLY CHART

USOil Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

While price remains within this channel expect it to continue downwards. If the channel is breached, then a larger bounce may be underway.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

USOil Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

A larger flat correction may be unfolding for a fourth wave (EWG members should refer to the US Oil monthly chart for the bigger picture here). Within a flat correction, intermediate wave (B) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of intermediate wave (A) at 28.61.

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Natural Gas

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

NGas Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

It is concerning that the Magee trend line is breached.

The last three daily candlesticks complete stalled pattern. The longer upper wick on the last candlestick is bearish. Declining volume for the last two upwards days is bearish.

On Balance Volume is bullish in that it is making strong new highs with price. There is some bearish divergence as noted.

Overall, it does look like this is a counter trend movement. But there is no indication it is over at this stage, so it may move higher.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

NGas Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The fourth wave is now very close to first wave price territory. If this portion of the wave count is correct, then there is very little room for NGas to move into. The target expects a long strong extended fifth wave, typical of commodities.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

USD Index

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USD Index Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

If there is a resumption of the larger upwards trend, then this next wave up is in its very early stages. In the short term, it looks like USD Index has made a relatively deep correction. Support is about 100.60. If price can break above resistance at 103, then next resistance is about 103.50.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

USD Index Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The structure of primary wave 5 is still incomplete. If the current correction moves lower, it should find support at the lower edge of the trend channel. If that trend channel is breached, then the wave count would be in doubt.

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EURGBP

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EURGBP Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

It looks like EURGBP is currently at resistance and may move into a small consolidation for a few days. This may bring Stochastics down from overbought. Price may find support about 0.8635.

It looks like there is a new upwards trend beginning.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

EURGBP Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The upwards movement should unfold as a three wave structure, so there should be downwards movement for minor wave B within it. If the target is wrong, it may be too low.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

USDJPY

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USDJPY Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

This pair has proven tricky to find an entry. It is currently in a consolidation with resistance about 115.55 and support about 111.55.

The short term Fibonacci 13 day moving average has just crossed above the mid term Fibonacci 55 day moving average giving a bullish crossover.

RSI is not extreme. Stochastics is extreme, but this may remain extreme for long periods of time when this market trends.

VOLUME ANALYSIS

USDJPY Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Volume for the last three upwards days showed an increase to support the rise in price. The long upper wick on the last daily candlestick is bearish.

On Balance Volume is squeezed. A break above the purple resistance line would be a reasonable bullish signal. A break below the yellow support line would be a weak bearish signal.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

USDJPY Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The structure of cycle wave III is still incomplete. The fifth wave up needs to unfold.

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DISCLAIMER

As always, it is essential that anyone using this analysis for trading advice manages risk carefully. Follow my two Golden Rules:

1. Always use a stop.

2. Never invest more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

Trading is about probabilities, not certainties. Failure to follow my two Golden Rules of trading indicates failure to manage risk.

Accept that this analysis may be wrong. It is impossible for any analyst to predict with certainty what a market will do next.

TRADING ROOM SUMMARY TABLE

New to Trading Room is a simplified table to summarise Trading Room. (Thanks to our member Dreamer for the idea.)

Subsequent posts will add a separate table for Open Positions and when applicable a third table for Closed Positions.

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This analysis is published @ 03:20 a.m. EST.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th March, 2017

Price moved into the target zone, which was 1,197 to 1,192, and then turned upwards to print a green daily candlestick.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th March, 2017

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th March, 2017

Silver has continued lower over the last few days as expected from last week’s analysis. The target remains the same.

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th March, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 8th March, 2017

Price continued lower as the two preferred hourly wave counts expected.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 8th March, 2017

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th March, 2017

The classic technical analysis picture has changed this week for US Oil. On Balance Volume is now giving a strong signal as to which direction price may break out.

Price has been consolidating now for about twelve weeks. There will be a breakout and it may come soon.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th March, 2017