Category Archives: Gold Historical

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th December, 2015

This is the last analysis prior to the Christmas / New Year break.

Next analysis will be done after market close for Monday, 4th January, 2016.

May you all have a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th December, 2015

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 3rd November, 2015

Downwards movement was not expected below 1,132.12.

Only one bull wave count remains valid as does the bear.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 3rd November, 2015

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th September, 2015

Both Elliott wave counts expected more downwards movement for Friday, which is what happened.

Now is when the bull and bear wave counts diverge, and next week price may provide clarity.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th September, 2015

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Grand Supercycle – 8th May, 2015

This Elliott wave count expects Gold is within a grand super cycle correction.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Grand Supercycle – 8th May, 2015

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th April, 2015

Downwards movement for Wednesday was expected, but this is not what happened. While upwards movement remains below the invalidation point it makes the situation unclear. I will present four Elliott wave counts, 2 bull and 2 bear.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th April, 2015

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th September, 2014

Downwards movement continued as expected from last Elliott wave analysis. I have a new alternate wave count for you which differs at the weekly and daily chart level.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th September, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 2nd September, 2014

Movement below 1,273.03 has invalidated the main Elliott wave count and confirmed the alternate. The situation is now clear. Elliott wave analysis will now focus on targets for this new trend.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 2nd September, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th June, 2014

Sideways movement continued, although for less than one day. The breakout was expected to be upwards. The alternate hourly wave count target for sideways movement to end was at 1,311.44 which was met and exceeded by just 1.01.

Summary: Minor wave B is complete as a triangle. Minor wave C may be brief and is extremely likely to fall short of the (A)-(C) trend line on the daily chart. The target for it to end is at 1,343 in one or two days.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2014

It is time to take a quick look at the bigger picture with primary wave 4 now so close to its end.

This wave count sees a clear five wave structure (that is how it subdivides on the daily chart) for primary wave 1. Any wave count which sees the end of primary wave 1 anywhere else than at that point must clearly explain how it is a five and not a three.

Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat which lasted 53 weeks. Primary wave 4 is a regular contracting triangle which has so far lasted also 53 weeks. If primary wave 4 ends soon it will be perfectly in proportion to primary wave 2 giving this wave count the right look.

Primary wave 3 is 12.54 short of 1.618 the length of primary wave 1.

The channel drawn here uses Elliott’s first technique: draw the first trend line from the ends of primary waves 1 to 3, then place a parallel copy upon the end of primary wave 2. If primary wave 4 overshoots the (A)-(C) trend line of its triangle then it may find resistance at the upper edge of this channel.

When primary wave 4 is done then primary wave 5 downwards should follow. It would most likely be equal in length with primary wave 1 at 388.25.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

Primary wave 4 is very close to completion.

Intermediate wave (E) is most likely to fall short of the (A)-(C) trend line. It may also overshoot this trend line, but that is less common. If it does overshoot this trend line then it may find resistance, and end, at the upper edge of the bigger maroon channel on the weekly chart.

Within the zigzag of intermediate wave (E) minor wave B is now complete as a small triangle and minor wave C has begun. At 1,343 minor wave C would reach 0.382 the length of minor wave A and intermediate wave (E) would end before the (A)-(C) trend line.

When there is more structure within minor wave C to analyse I will be able to calculate a target for it to end at minute degree. The target at 1,343 may widen to a small zone or change.

So far within primary wave 4 intermediate wave (A) lasted 43 days (no Fibonacci relationship), intermediate wave (B) lasted 88 days (just one day short of a Fibonacci 89), intermediate wave (C) lasted 53 days (just two days short of a Fibonacci 55) and intermediate wave (D) lasted 56 days (just one day more than a Fibonacci 55). So far intermediate wave (E) has lasted 19 days and is almost complete. It may complete in a total Fibonacci 21 days (give or take one day either side of this).

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2014

Minor wave B is another perfect contracting triangle with minute wave e falling short of its a-c trend line.

Triangles precede the final movement one degree higher. Minor wave C is the final wave up to complete this entire structure at primary wave degree.

Waves following triangles are usually shorter than the wave which precedes the triangle. I would expect minor wave C to be shorter than minor wave A while also considering the (A)-(C) trend line on the daily chart.

So far within minor wave C there is an almost complete five wave impulse. Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory below 1,319.27.

When minute wave i upwards is a complete five wave structure then I would expect downwards movement for minute wave ii which may not move beyond the start of minute wave i at 1,310.43. At that stage it would also be entirely possible that minor wave C and so primary wave 4 are complete. At that stage movement below 1,310.43 would indicate that primary wave 5 has begun.

My only concern with this wave count today is what degree of labeling to use on minor wave C upwards. Is this just minute wave i or is minor wave C going to be particularly brief and is it almost over now? The depth of the next wave downwards will answer that question tomorrow.

This analysis is published about 04:55 p.m. EST.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th June, 2014

The target at 1,271 was met and exceeded by 3.97 during the last 24 hours. Upwards movement was expected for the short term.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th June, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Grand Supercycle – 7th June, 2014

This wave count expects Gold is within a grand super cycle correction.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Grand Supercycle – 7th June, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th March, 2014

Price has moved lower as expected for Friday, but the targets have not been met. At this stage the alternate hourly wave count diverges from the main wave count.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th March, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th September, 2013

Movement above 1,374.17 invalidated the main wave count and confirmed the alternate. Yesterday I judged the two wave counts to have a close to even probability.

It is time to review the bigger picture. I will review my main and alternate historic wave counts today.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2013

This is now my main historic wave count, previously it was an alternate. It looks most likely that downwards movement is unfolding as a five wave impulse from the all time high at 1,921.15. So far we have primary waves 1, 2 and 3 complete. Primary wave 4 is and incomplete double zigzag or double combination.

Primary wave 3 is 12.54 short of 1.618 the length of primary wave 1.

Primary wave 2 was deep 68% correction as a running flat. I will expect alternation between primary waves 2 and 4.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

There are still several possible structures for primary wave 4. So far we have a three down from the high at 1,433.83. This three down is less than 90% the length of intermediate wave (W) so it cannot be a B wave within a flat over there. This structure may be a double zigzag or double combination. In a double combination the second structure labeled intermediate wave (Y) may be either a flat or triangle.

It is most likely at this stage that primary wave 4 is continuing as a double zigzag. Intermediate wave (Y) is most likely to be a zigzag.

Primary wave 2 was a deep 68% regular flat correction lasting 54 weeks. Given the guideline of alternation we may expect primary wave 4 to continue for longer than it has so far, possibly for another 10 weeks to last a Fibonacci 21 (give or take one week either side of this). If it completed as a double zigzag there would be nice alternation in structure with primary wave 2.

Primary wave 4 has already passed the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio, so it may end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of primary wave 3 at 1,529.97. It should find resistance at the upper edge of the parallel channel drawn here using Elliott’s first technique.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.

Main Hourly Wave Count.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

This main hourly wave count expects minute wave i is incomplete. At 1,408 minuette wave (v) would reach 0.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

Within minute wave i there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (iii) and (i). This makes it more likely we shall see a Fiboancci ratio between minuette wave (v) and either of (i) or (iii).

Within minuette wave (v) subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i. This main wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,359.20.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly Alternate 2013

It is possible that minute wave i is over and a second wave has just begun.

Within minute wave i there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (i) and (iii), but minuette wave (v) is just 0.03 longer than equality with minuette wave (i).

The only reason why this is an alternate is because there is a very slight truncation at the end of minute wave i. Otherwise this wave count would have a better fit. It has a very good probability despite the truncation.

Movement below 1,359.20 would invalidate the main wave count and confirm this alternate. At that stage I would have confidence gold is in a second wave correction which could last one to a few days. The most likely structure for minute wave ii is a zigzag, and the most likely price point for it to end is at the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i at 1,323.12.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,291.95.

Historic Alternate Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly Alternate 2013

This wave count was my prior main historic wave count. It is now an alternate.

This wave count sees the correction for cycle wave IV as a completed zigzag and recent upwards movement the start of a new cycle degree wave to last one to several years. At 1,961 cycle wave V would reach equality in length with cycle wave I.

Cycle wave IV may not move into cycle wave I price territory. Movement below 1,032.70 would invalidate this alternate providing further confirmation for the main historic wave count.