Upwards movement continues and price has remained within the upper half of the channel on the hourly chart, which was expected at this stage.
Trading advice is given to members to manage long positions towards the end of this week.
Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th April, 2017
An upwards breakout was again expected, but price remains range bound.
Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th April, 2017
Price moved strongly higher exactly as the Elliott wave count expected for a third wave up. Targets remain the same.
Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th March, 2017
Price has moved overall higher as expected from the main hourly Elliott wave count in last analysis.
Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th March, 2017
Another upwards day sees the main and alternate Elliott wave counts switched over.
What is now the alternate Elliott wave count still remains viable. It illustrates the risk today to trading based upon the main Elliott wave count.
Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 8th February, 2017
Gold has had a trend change. How high this next wave goes and what structure it takes will indicate which Elliott wave count at the monthly chart level may be correct.
Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th January, 2017
A small inside day fits the preferred expectations for Gold, but all Elliott wave counts still remain valid. Targets remain the same.
Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st December, 2016
The main Elliott wave count was invalidated with a new low below 1,204.05, and the target at 1,203 was inadequate for the alternate Elliott wave count.
Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd November, 2016
The main Elliott wave count expected downwards movement and the alternate expected upwards movement.
A new high above 1,283.63 has favoured what was yesterday’s alternate wave count.
Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1st November, 2016
Upwards movement was expected for Friday.
Price moved sideways to complete a small inside day and a green candlestick.
Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd September, 2016
Downwards movement was expected from yesterday’s analysis.
Summary: While price remains within the narrow pink channel, then assume the short term downwards trend remains intact. If the channel is breached and if price moves above 1,330.01, then assume the upwards trend has most likely returned.
New updates to this analysis are in bold.
Last weekly charts are here.
Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.
DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
Click chart to enlarge.
Primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Thereafter, this wave count differs from the two alternates.
This main wave count will expect primary wave 3 to be longer than primary wave 1. Because this is very common, this is the main wave count and it expects the most common scenario is most likely. At 1,582 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1.
Only intermediate wave (1) so far is complete within primary wave 3. Intermediate wave (2) may be close to completion. It may find support at the lower edge of the base channel drawn about primary waves 1 and 2. Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,200.07
Primary wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse.
Minute wave iv should now be complete. A breach of the dark blue channel drawn about intermediate wove (2) would provide trend channel confirmation that intermediate wave (2) is over and intermediate wave (3) is underway.
At this stage, a new high above 1,330.01 could not be a continuation of minute wave iv, so at that stage minute wave iv and minor wave C would have to be over. A new high above 1,330.01 would provide strong confidence in a trend change and the resumption of the prior upwards trend.
At 1,288 minute wave v would reach equality in length with minute wave i. If this target is wrong, it may be slightly too high. Price may find strong support at the lower edge of the base channel; this trend line may stop price moving lower.
Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,200.07.
Primary wave 2 lasted 56 days (one more than a Fibonacci 55). So far intermediate wave (2) is more brief in duration. It has lasted 40 days and may be just one or two days away from completion.
Keep the small narrow pink channel on daily and hourly charts. Draw a channel about intermediate wave (2) using Elliott’s technique for a correction (blue lines). Price is finding support at the lower edge. If this wave count is wrong, then it may be in expecting more downwards movement. The lower edge of this channel may stop price from falling further.
With this wave count expecting a third wave at two large degrees to begin very soon, look out for surprises to the upside at this stage.
HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
Click chart to enlarge.
Minor wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure.
Within minor wave C, the structure may be still incomplete. Minute wave iv may have been a relatively brief and shallow zigzag exhibiting only alternation in depth with minute wave ii.
At 1,288 minute wave v would reach equality in length with minute wave i.
So far, for this main wave count, the structure within minute wave v looks incomplete. There is too much overlapping for the middle of its third wave to have passed. This wave count expects to see another one or two days of downwards movement.
Within minuette wave (iii), no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 1,315.89.
ALTERNATE HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
Click chart to enlarge.
This alternate is new.
It is possible that minute wave iv was over more recently as labelled. There is still only alternation in depth between minute waves ii and iv. Both are zigzags.
Minute wave iv may be very close to completion. It may end when price again touches the lower edge of the dark blue channel. After a final slight new low below the end of minuette wave (iii) at 1,305.32, then intermediate wave (2) could be over.
Thereafter, a breach of the narrow pink channel that contains recent downwards movement would provide some confidence in a trend change. A new high above 1,315.89 would provide first price confidence. A new high above 1,330.01 would provide stronger confidence. At that stage, upwards movement could not be a continuation of minute wave iv, so minute waves iv and v would have to be over.
ALTERNATE DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
Click chart to enlarge.
It is possible that primary wave 3 is over and shorter than primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 shows stronger volume than primary wave 1 (see technical analysis weekly chart).
If primary wave 3 is over, then the current consolidation for Gold would be primary wave 4.
Primary wave 2 was a relatively shallow 0.35 expanded flat correction. Primary wave 4 may be unfolding as a deeper zigzag which would exhibit perfect alternation.
Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory below 1,282.68.
Primary wave 5 would be limited to no longer than equality in length with primary wave 3, so that the core Elliott wave rule stating a third wave may not be the shortest is met. Primary wave 5 would have a limit of 174.84.
This wave count expects more downwards movement to complete a five wave impulse for intermediate wave (C) in the same way as the main wave count expects a five wave impulse down to complete minor wave C. Only the degree of labelling differs; this wave count is one degree higher.
The hourly charts would be exactly the same except for the degree of labelling.
It is no longer possible for intermediate wave (4) to be a triangle. Within a contracting or barrier triangle, minor wave C may not move beyond the end of minor wave A. If intermediate wave (4) is labelled as a triangle, then minor wave A would be at the low of 1,310.84. The new low today to 1,305.82 invalidates this idea, so this may not be minor wave C.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
WEEKLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
A strong downwards week with an increase in volume supports the main and alternate III wave counts. Overall, volume is still declining and price remains range bound.
The prior two green weekly candlesticks had long upper shadows which was bearish.
Price may find some support about 1,310.
On Balance Volume at the end of last week has come down to find support at the purple trend line. This may help to stop price falling much further.
RSI is not extreme. There is some hidden bullish divergence with price and RSI: RSI has made a lower low below the low of 25th of July but price has made a higher low. This indicates some weakness to this downwards movement. It is more likely to be a smaller correction than a sustainable trend.
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
Price is still range bound and today has reached support. During this range bound period, which began back on 7th of June, it is two upwards days of 8th of July and 26th of August that have strongest volume. This suggests an upwards breakout is more likely than downwards. This trick usually (not always) works well for Gold. This supports the Elliott wave counts.
Volume today is slightly stronger than yesterday, but it is still relatively light.
Price should be expected to find strong support about 1,310 to 1,305. This is an area of prior resistance and support.
On Balance Volume may be finding support today at the yellow trend line. A break below this yellow line would be a bearish signal, but only a weak one because this line has recently been weakened. A break above the purple line would be a bullish signal.
RSI is not yet extreme. There is room for price to fall further. There is no divergence today to indicate weakness between price and RSI.
ADX continues to decline indicating the market is not trending. The +DX and -DX lines continue to whipsaw about each other, typical of a consolidating market. ATR continues to agree as it too is declining.
No clear trend is evident. This downwards movement looks like a swing within a larger consolidation.
Stochastics is oversold and exhibits multi day divergence now with price. With price now at support, an end to this downwards swing would be a reasonable expectation. An upwards swing should be expected to begin about here.
Bollinger Bands are beginning to widen for five days in a row. A trend may be about to return.
The shorter term 13 day moving average is pointing downwards and price is below it. The short term trend is down. The mid term 55 day moving average has just turned and is also pointing downwards today. This indicates the mid term trend may have changed to down. The shorter 13 day average has not yet crossed below the mid term 55 day average yet though, so a trend change has not yet been indicated from up to down.
This analysis is published @ 09:32 p.m. EST.
[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]
Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st August, 2016
A little downwards movement was expected to begin for Monday before a trend change to upwards.
Price has moved lower.
Summary: The trend is up. The target remains at 1,582. Confidence in targets may be had with price movement above 1,349.25. There is still some bearish indication from volume to warrant extreme caution with any long positions at this time. Stops are absolutely essential (as always) and may be set just below 1,310.84. Invest no more than 3% of equity on any long positions entered here. If entering a long position today, the possibility of a loss must be accepted and risk managed.
New updates to this analysis are in bold.
Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.
Last weekly chart is here.
DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
Click chart to enlarge.
Primary wave 2 is a complete expanded flat correction. Price from the low labelled primary wave 2 has now moved too far upwards to be reasonably considered a continuation of primary wave 2. Primary wave 3 is very likely to have begun and would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1 at 1,582.
Primary wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse.
So far intermediate waves (1) and (2) may be complete within primary wave 3. The middle of primary wave 3 may have begun and may also only subdivide as an impulse.
Within intermediate wave (3), the end of minor wave 1 is moved up to the last high. This fits on the hourly chart although it looks odd here on the daily chart. There was a small fourth wave correction up at the end of minor wave 1 and it subdivides on the hourly chart as an impulse. Minor wave 2 may be a complete zigzag, also subdividing as a zigzag on the hourly chart. If minor wave 2 is over, it would be 0.50 the depth of minute wave i.
No second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 1,310.84 within minor wave 3.
At 1,437 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). If price keeps going upwards through this first target, or if it gets there and the structure is incomplete, then the next target would be at 1,552 where intermediate wave (3) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).
The support line in cyan is adjusted today. Draw it from the start of intermediate wave (1) to the end of intermediate wave (2). Downwards corrections may bounce upwards from about this support line.
The analysis of minute wave i is adjusted today. The correction which may have ended today may have been minute wave ii. This has a better look on the daily chart, and it fits well on the hourly chart. If this is correct, then there may now be four overlapping first and second waves complete: primary, intermediate, minor and now minute. This wave count expects to see an increase in upwards momentum beginning this week.
HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
Click chart to enlarge.
If the cyan support line copied over here from the daily chart is working, then minute wave ii should be over today. Minute wave iii upwards should have begun.
At 1,513 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.
Within minor wave 3, minute waves i and now ii may be complete. Minute wave ii is a deep 0.66 zigzag, ending close to the cyan support line. At 1,420 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i, and at 1,476 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i. If minute wave ii moves any lower, then these targets must also move correspondingly lower.
Within minute wave ii, 1,349.25 is the low labelled minuette wave (a). A new high above this point could not be a fourth wave correction within an impulse developing lower. A new high above 1,349.25 would confirm that the downwards wave labelled minute wave ii was a three and was over. At that stage, more confidence may be had in targets and the overall upwards direction expected from this wave count.
The invalidation point will remain at the start of minute wave i while price remains below this confirmation point. If minute wave ii continues lower, it may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 1,310.84.
THIRD WAVE EXAMPLE – DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
In discussing the curved look to Gold’s impulses, particularly for its third waves, here is an example.
Within primary wave 1, the third wave of minor wave 3 had a strong curved look to it. The impulse begins more slowly and has deep and relatively time consuming second wave corrections: Minor wave 2 was 0.68 of minor wave 1, minute wave ii was 0.76 of minute wave i, minuette wave (ii) was 0.56 of minuette wave (i), and subminuette wave ii was 0.64 of subminuette wave i.
The curved look comes from the disproportion between second and fourth wave corrections within the impulse. Here, minute wave ii lasted 4 days and shows clearly on the daily chart yet minute wave iv was over within one day and does not show up with any red candlesticks or doji on the daily chart.
Momentum builds towards the middle of the impulse, continuing to build further during the fifth wave and ending in a blowoff top. This is typical of Gold and all commodities.
This tendency to blowoff tops and curved impulses is particularly prevalent for Gold’s third waves.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
WEEKLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
The week before last completed a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern supported by stronger volume than the prior downwards week. Last week made a new high, then completed a red candlestick on lighter volume. Overall, the fall in price last week is not supported by volume at the weekly chart level. Last week looks to more likely be a corrective movement than a new trend.
On Balance Volume is still relatively bullish above the purple trend line, which is redrawn at the end of last week. A break below the purple line would be bearish. A break above the green line would be bullish.
RSI is not extreme. There is room for price to rise or fall.
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
First impression of Friday’s candlestick is a strong downwards day that is well supported by volume. With the fall in price over three days having support from volume, the initial impression is that this movement may be a new downwards trend and not a counter trend movement. Price has closed below the 13 day moving average, which often (not always) provides support or resistance for smaller corrections during Gold’s trends.
Looking back over this bull market that started on 3rd December, 2015, the multi day corrections may assist to see how Friday’s volume spike should be interpreted.
During the upwards trend from 3rd of December, 2015, 14 multi day corrections are noted. Of those 14 multi day corrections, 8 ended with strong volume on the final day and six did not. Gold has a tendency to blowoff tops and volume spikes at the end of downwards waves. It is possible that this is what happened on Friday.
There are two ways to read Friday’s strong volume: as a spike at the end of a movement, which is a bullish interpretation, or as support for downwards movement, which is a bearish interpretation.
Monday completes a small green doji on light volume. The bulls and bears today were very evenly balanced, with the bulls very slightly winning to complete a green candlestick. With light volume for overall a sideways day, the message is unclear but may slightly favour a bearish outlook.
On Balance Volume is bullish while it remains above the purple trend lines. There is some hidden bearish divergence between price and OBV at the last high: OBV made a new high but price did not. This indicates some weakness in price. This weakness may now be resolved by overall four days of downwards movement.
RSI is sitting very close to neutral. There is room for price to rise or fall.
ADX is still declining today indicating no clear trend. ADX has not indicated a trend change: the +DX line remains above the -DX line.
ATR is still overall declining in agreement with ADX. This market is not currently trending, so it should be assumed to be consolidating.
Stochastsics is returning from overbought. If the market is still consolidating, then some more downwards movement would be expected to continue until price finds support about 1,305 – 1,310 and Stochastics is oversold at the same time. This approach works for most swings within a consolidation, except the last, which is when the trend returns.
This analysis is published @ 08:40 p.m. EST.
[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]
Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 8th August, 2016
Upwards movement was expected. This is not what happened.
Price moved lower but remains above the invalidation point on the hourly Elliott wave chart.
Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th July, 2016