Monthly Archives: March 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st March, 2014

Downwards movement continues as expected. With momentum continuing to slow I will swap over the main and alternate hourly wave counts.

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GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th March, 2014

Price has moved lower as expected for Friday, but the targets have not been met. At this stage the alternate hourly wave count diverges from the main wave count.

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US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th March, 2014

Last analysis looked for the arrival of a second wave correction. The correction was indicated when the channel on the hourly chart was breached. The correction is most likely incomplete. I am now expecting price to move higher to a short term target at 101.76 to 102.21 before a resumption of the downwards trend.

Click on charts to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

The daily chart shows all of the start of cycle wave c downwards.

Minor wave 1 subdivides perfectly as an impulse. Minor wave 2 is now complete as an expanded flat correction which is a 66% correction of minor wave 1.

Within minor wave 2 minute wave b is 106% the length of minute wave a, and minute wave c is 0.59 short of 1.618 the length of minute wave a.

At 72.53 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Minor wave 1 lasted 65 days and minor wave 2 lasted 67 days. If minor wave 3 is of about the same duration it may end in another 50 days or thereabouts.

The channel drawn about minor waves 1 and 2 is a base channel. Minor wave 3 downwards should clearly and strongly breach the lower edge of the channel. Along the way down upwards corrections should find resistance about the upper edge of the channel.

Within minor wave 3 minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 105.21.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2014

The hourly chart shows all of minute wave ii so far. It is an incomplete corrective structure and I expect it to move higher.

Within minute wave ii subminuette wave a may have been a leading contracting diagonal. Subminuette wave b may have been a complete flat correction. At 101.76 subminuette wave c would reach equality in length with subminuette wave a. At 102.21 minute wave ii would reach up to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i.

If the target is met in another three days then minute wave ii will be equal in duration to minute wave i.

The green channel is drawn using Elliott’s technique for a correction about minute wave ii. So far the lower edge is providing support. It should continue to do so while minute wave ii continues higher. Subminuette wave c may overshoot the upper edge of the channel (sometimes C waves do this). When the channel is breached by subsequent downwards movement that would be the first indication that minute wave ii should be over and minute wave iii may have begun.

When minute wave ii upwards is complete then the next downwards wave would be a third wave within a third wave. This should show strong downwards momentum.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 105.21.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th March, 2014

Yesterday’s analysis expected downwards movement to continue. A slight new low was made, but overall price has moved sideways and slightly higher for the session. The target remains the same and the wave count is mostly the same.

Summary: It is most likely we shall see an increase in downwards momentum over the next 24 to 36 hours. The target is at 1,271.

This analysis is published about 04:40 p.m. EST. Click on charts to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete.

Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat. Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be a flat correction because it is likely to show structural alternation with primary wave 2.

The first upwards wave within primary wave 4 labeled intermediate wave (W) subdivides as a three wave zigzag. Primary wave 4 cannot be an unfolding zigzag because the first wave within a zigzag, wave A, must subdivide as a five.

Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be completing as a double zigzag because intermediate wave (X) is a deep 99% correction of intermediate wave (W). Double zigzags commonly have shallow X waves because their purpose it to deepen a correction when the first zigzag does not move price deep enough.

Primary wave 4 is most likely to be completing as a double combination: zigzag – X – second structure. The second structure labeled intermediate wave (Y) may be either a flat or a triangle. For both these structures minor wave A must be a three.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

There are more than thirteen possible corrective structures that minor wave B may take. It is most likely to be a zigzag. Within a zigzag minute wave a must subdivide as a five wave motive structure, either a leading diagonal or an impulse. This downwards movement so far is clearly not a diagonal and it may be an impulse.

This main hourly wave count follows the most likely structure of a zigzag for minor wave B.

If minuette wave (iii) is extending then within it we may see subminuette waves ii and iv show on the daily chart. It looks like that is what is happening. Subminuette wave ii may now be over, but if it continues further it should find resistance at the upper edge of the base channel drawn about minuette waves (i) and (ii).

At 1,271 minuette wave (iii) would reach equality with minuette wave (i). Within minuette wave (iii) when subminuette waves iii and iv are complete I will add to this target calculation at a second wave degree, so it may change. If it changes I would expect it to be lower.

The next wave downwards would be a third wave within a third wave, and it should show an increase in downwards momentum beyond that seen for minuette wave (i) and should strongly breach the lower edge of the base channel.

Subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,342.53.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly Alternate 2013

If minor wave B is a flat (or a combination with a flat as the first structure) then minute wave a within it must subdivide as a three. Minute wave a for this alternate is seen as a zigzag which may now be complete. If the main wave count is invalidated then this is the wave count I would use.

When minute wave a subdivides as a three then minute wave b may make a new price extreme beyond the start of minute wave a. There is no upper invalidation point for this reason.

If minor wave B is a flat correction then within it minute wave b must reach a minimum 90% length of minute wave a at 1,383.87.

If minor wave B is a combination or double zigzag (instead of minute a-b-c we would relabel this minute w-x-y) then there is no minimum requirement for an upwards minute wave x. I would expect it to find resistance at the lower edge of the pink channel.

The green channel drawn here is termed a corrective channel when it is drawn about a correction. Now that minuette wave (c) may be complete a clear breach of the upper edge of this channel would indicate that minute wave a (or w) is over and minute wave b (or x) is underway.

Alternate Daily Wave Count – Triangle.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily Triangle 2013

It is also possible that primary wave 4 may continue as a regular contracting (or barrier) triangle. With MACD moving reasonably close to the zero line on the daily chart this triangle looks typical. At this stage the subdivisions within primary wave 4 do not indicate whether it is a triangle or combination, both are possible. A triangle is less likely only because it is not as common a structure as a double combination.

This wave count has a good probability. It does not diverge from the main wave count and it will not diverge for several weeks yet.

Triangles take up time and move price sideways. If primary wave 4 unfolds as a triangle then I would expect it to last months rather than weeks.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th March, 2014

As expected upwards movement found resistance at the pink trend line on the daily chart. Downwards movement continues towards the target.

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GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st March, 2014

Last analysis expected continued downwards movement to a short term target at 1,295 to 1,293. This is not what happened; price moved slowly higher. Although the wave count remained valid the green candlestick on the daily chart indicates it was wrong and so it is changed.

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GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th March, 2014

Downwards movement again has continued as expected.

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GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th March, 2014

Downwards movement was expected for both the main and alternate wave counts. I had expected a little more upwards movement to 1,366 first, but this target was not reached.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th March, 2014