Yearly Archives: 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd February, 2017

An upwards day with some increase in volume has broken above resistance.

The main Elliott wave count was invalidated and the alternate Elliott wave count was confirmed.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd February, 2017

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd February, 2017

Last week expected a pullback for Silver.

Price has so far for the week moved sideways, with a lower high and a lower low.

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd February, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd February, 2017

Gold is still range bound.

On Balance Volume today is giving a signal for the next direction for Gold.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd February, 2017

Trading Room – 21st February, 2017

Today’s Trading Room looks at NGas, EURUSD, USDJPY and EURGBP.

To learn what the Trading Room is about see first Trading Room analysis here.

Trading Room will focus on classic technical analysis. Elliott wave analysis will be for support and for targets / invalidation points.

NGas

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

NGas Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Natural Gas continues lower as the last analysis expected. Today’s strong volume spike may be a selling climax. In the short term, it may be followed by a small consolidation before price may continue lower.

For the very short term, if price breaks above the steeply sloping rose trend line, then look out for a deeper correction. Expect price to fall to next support at 2.55 while price remains below that line.

This trend is not yet extreme and there is no divergence yet between price and RSI to indicate weakness.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

MAIN WAVE COUNT – WEEKLY CHART

NGas Chart Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This wave count expects Natural Gas is in a new bear market to last one to several years.

MAIN WAVE COUNT – DAILY CHART

NGas Chart Daily 2017
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If a deeper correction does develop here after the selling climax, then it may be a primary degree fourth wave that may last a Fibonacci 13 or 21 days. First, the rose trend line on the TA chart above must be breached to indicate primary 3 is over. So far it is less than 1.618 the length of primary wave 1, so it is likely to continue further.

ALTERNATE WAVE COUNT – WEEKLY CHART

NGas Chart Weekly 2017
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Downwards movement from the last high may be primary wave B coming to an end as a very common expanded flat correction.

ALTERNATE WAVE COUNT – DAILY CHART

NGas Chart Daily 2017
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Minor wave 3 has only just broken below the lower edge of the base channel. This is how a third wave should behave. The selling climax of the 21st of February may be followed by a brief shallow correction before price continues lower to complete minor wave 3. Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory.

Both Elliott wave counts expect Natural Gas to continue lower from here at least to make a new low below 2.549. That has not happened yet.

USDJPY

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USDJPY Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

I have published this pair often in Trading Room. That is because I consider it to be a good opportunity at this time. The idea of Trading Room is to look for markets that are trending and find entry points to join the trend in order to have a wider range of opportunities to profit from.

This is my favourite trade set up: a breach of a trend line followed by a back test of support or resistance. USDJPY has done this with the blue trend line.

The risk with this set up is that the trend line is too steep and not often tested, so price may break back below it. The risk does not at this stage look to be high, but it must be acknowledged.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

USDJPY Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This market is behaving as expected so far.

EURUSD

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EURUSD Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Last analysis of this pair expected a bounce to unfold after the candlestick of the 15th of February showed a bullish long lower wick. This was followed by a strong upwards day, and now a strong downwards day.

This is not correctly a bearish reversal pattern; the red candlestick for the 17th of February does not engulf the green candlestick for the 16th of February. However, it is still a strong downwards day and is bearish. Price may now be finding some resistance at the Fibonacci 13 day moving average and the mid line of Bollinger Bands.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

EURUSD Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

On Balance Volume remains bearish. A purple resistance line is added. The last test is another small bearish signal.

EURGBP

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EURGBP Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

This pair is presented in response to a member’s request. While the Elliott wave count is bearish, this classic analysis is not so much.

The last two upwards trends reached extreme. Since the high on the 16th of January downwards movement has brought ADX down from extreme. There is again room for a trend to develop.

This market currently looks range bound. Resistance is about 0.8650 and support is about 0.8450. The bottom line is a breakout would be required before any confidence may be had that this market is trending.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

EURGBP Chart Monthly 2017
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The large downwards wave labelled Super Cycle wave (II) will not fit as a five wave structure. It will only fit as a three. This may be the end of the bear market.

The upwards wave labelled cycle wave I looks like a very good five wave impulse. It should be expected to reasonably be followed by a three wave down movement for a second wave correction, which is most likely to end close to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio.

DAILY CHART

EURGBP Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

C has not yet moved beyond the end of A to avoid a truncation. The target has a good probability.

While classic analysis is not very bearish, this Elliott wave count is.

Use the lilac line for resistance.

Volume analysis:

The strong volume for the last session of the 21st of February supports this wave count. The fall in price is supported by volume here as a third wave should be.

On Balance Volume is giving no signal, either bullish or bearish.

DISCLAIMER

As always, it is essential that anyone using this analysis for trading advice manages risk carefully. Follow my two Golden Rules:

1. Always use a stop.

2. Never invest more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

Trading is about probabilities, not certainties. Failure to follow my two Golden Rules of trading indicates failure to manage risk.

Accept that this analysis may be wrong. It is impossible for any analyst to predict with certainty what a market will do next.

This analysis is published @ 12:10 a.m. EST on 22nd February, 2017.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st February, 2017

Gold is still range bound.

Classic analysis, with a heavy reliance on volume analysis, is used to determine probability of the main versus alternate Elliott wave counts today.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st February, 2017

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th February, 2017

Price is still range bound. On Balance Volume is giving a strong signal about what direction price will break out.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th February, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th February, 2017

A lower high and a lower low moved price lower for Monday’s session, which is overall what the main Elliott wave count expected. A public holiday in the USA for Presidents Day saw markets very quiet.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th February, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th February, 2017

Price moved higher for Friday’s session, which was not expected but was allowed for. Price remains below the invalidation point on the main hourly Elliott wave count.

This week volume and ATR are giving some clues as to what the upwards movement for the last three days most likely means.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th February, 2017

The Trading Room – 17th February, 2017

Today’s Trading Room looks at USDJPY, EURUSD and Copper.

To learn what the Trading Room is about see first Trading Room analysis here.

Trading Room will focus on classic technical analysis. Elliott wave analysis will be for support and for targets / invalidation points.

USDJPY

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USDJPY Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

A pullback within the new upwards trend may offer an opportunity to join the trend when it is done. However, this is still very early stages; ADX does not yet indicate a new upwards trend. This is a lagging indicator; it is based upon a 14 day average.

Price may find support here at the blue trend line.

Caution: the last three daily candlesticks give a reversal signal, an Evening Doji Star pattern. This indicates a change from up to either down or sideways.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

USDJPY Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This market is behaving as expected so far. Elliott wave targets may be used as profit targets.

HOURLY CHART

USDJPY Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

At this stage, expect a 0.618 retracement of the prior upwards wave.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

EURUSD

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EURUSD Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Overall, this chart looks bearish. When markets trend downwards, corrections offer an opportunity to join the trend. In this case, the long lower wick and green candlestick today are slightly bullish. A bounce may be unfolding within a downwards trend here.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

EURUSD Chart Daily 2017
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A deeper bounce may find resistance at the lower edge of the best fit yellow channel. On Balance Volume remains bearish.

HOURLY CHART

EURUSD Chart Daily 2017
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Price has breached a support line, but this line is very steep and does not offer good technical significance. Price may yet move higher to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio before turning. Watch this closely over the next 24 hours. If price begins to move down and away strongly, then the next wave down may be underway.

Copper

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Copper Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Price is finding support about the short term Fibonacci 13 day moving average. If a full daily candlestick can print below this average, it would offer a little confidence in a trend change.

Upwards movement shows weakness: divergence with RSI, flat to declining ATR, and contracted Bollinger Bands.

However, there is as yet no indication nor confirmation of a trend change from up to down. Watch On Balance Volume closely over the next few days; a breakout there may indicate the next direction for price.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

USDJPY Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

If the triangle labelled primary wave X is correct, then this upwards movement may not be a developing impulse, so it must be corrective. Triangles may not be a sole corrective structure within a second wave.

This upwards movement fits as a completed double zigzag. This may be a large counter trend movement within a bigger downwards trend.

If price prints a full daily candlestick below the lilac support line, then the next wave down may have begun.

MONTHLY CHART

USDJPY Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Watch the green resistance line (copied over to the daily chart, both on a semi-log scale). If price prints at least one full daily (and preferably weekly) candlestick above that trend line, then expect more upwards movement. If that happens, then my Elliott wave count above would be wrong.

DISCLAIMER

As always, it is essential that anyone using this analysis for trading advice manages risk carefully. Follow my two Golden Rules:

1. Always use a stop.

2. Never invest more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

Trading is about probabilities, not certainties. Failure to follow my two Golden Rules of trading indicates failure to manage risk.

Accept that this analysis may be wrong. It is impossible for any analyst to predict with certainty what a market will do next.

This analysis is published @ 03:46 a.m. EST.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th February, 2017

Last week again expected upwards movement for Silver, which is again what has happened.

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th February, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th February, 2017

Upwards movement for the main Elliott wave hourly chart was expected to reach a target at 1,240.

Price moved higher as expected to reach 1,241.99.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th February, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th February, 2017

Price made a lower low and lower high today, the definition of downwards movement. Overall, this was expected.

But the session closed green with a strong bounce and that was not expected as the most likely scenario, but it was allowed for.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th February, 2017