Three Elliott wave counts are presented below in the order in which they were developed, not in the order of probability:
FIRST WAVE COUNT
SECOND WAVE COUNT
THIRD WAVE COUNT
For most recent movement, this wave count has the best fit in terms of Elliott wave structure. It does look like a barrier triangle has recently finished, which may be cycle wave b.
If the triangle is correctly labelled, then this tells us two things, because it cannot be a second nor fourth wave and so may only be a B wave:
1. The breakout from this multi month consolidation should be upwards.
2. After an upwards wave to last one to several years, GDX should then turn downwards for wave C.
Published @ 02:20 a.m. EST.
Last analysis expected a pullback, which has arrived. The last three sessions have seen price fall for Silver.
Further downwards movement continued as the last analysis expected.
Another brain teaser to test your Elliott wave knowledge:
I have tried to make it a bit easier by violating only core Elliott wave rules and making the mistakes really bad ones. Price points of all waves are given so you can calculate lengths and look for the mistakes.
You can participate by either posting a chart or comment pointing out the five deliberate mistakes, or post a chart where you fix the wave count to remove the mistakes. It’s up to you. If making a comment, please refer to the degree of labelling the mistake is in.
I encourage all members who find this a bit challenging to really give it a go. This should be a great exercise to really hone your Elliott wave skills.
There are two mistakes which violate the same Elliott wave rule.
One mistake is in a corrective structure, and to me it looks very obvious.
Another mistake violates a core Elliott wave rule, but it is a matter of judgement as to how the wave may subdivide on a lower time frame.
Another mistake violates a core Elliott wave rule, probably the most important core Elliott wave rule which should absolutely never be broken, ever.
Answers will be posted tomorrow after tomorrow’s analysis is published. You have 24 hours. Have fun!
Published @ 04:30 a.m. EST.
Downwards movement continued overall as the last analysis expected.
When is it appropriate to use targets that are longer than 1.618?
It is appropriate to use targets calculated using Fibonacci ratios greater than 1.618 (following ratios in the sequence) when:
1. A first wave is very short, and a target calculation using only 1.618 would see the third wave not move far enough for a ratio using a higher degree to be reached.
2. Price reaches the first target using 1.618 and keeps moving through it. Then the next Fibonacci ratio in the sequence should be used.
3. The particular market analysed often exhibits extreme Fibonacci ratios such as 6.854 and 11.09. Bitcoin is an example of such a market. This behaviour can be determined by Fibonacci analysis of completed waves.
The chart above shows a fairly typical example of a third wave for Gold.
Here, minor wave 1 was relatively short. The first target using 1.618 for minor wave 3 would have been reached about 1,488. The structure was not complete there, unless the end of minute wave i was labelled as minor wave 3. But it did not exhibit a very strong increase in downwards momentum, so although that could have been the end of it (and was suggested to me at the time) that would not have looked right.
Intermediate wave (3) exhibits an extreme Fibonacci ratio to intermediate wave (1). Intermediate wave (1) was very short. As intermediate wave (3) unfolded, it could have been labelled complete at the low labelled minute wave iii. The strongest argument against such labelling would have been that selling climaxes are usually the end of a third wave within a third wave, and not often the end of a third wave of a larger degree.
Both of the fifth waves to end minor wave 3 and intermediate wave (3) exhibit ratios of equality in length with their counterpart first waves.
Published @ 02:11 p.m. EST.
The upwards movement over the last week has remained below the invalidation point on the daily Elliott wave counts.
Last analysis expected upwards movement to continue towards a target at 1,320. Price did make a new high but was well short of the target.
Elliott wave charts of BTCUSD:
Analysis for the last two days has advised members to assume the trend remains the same, upwards, until proven otherwise. Friday has continued the upwards trend. A new short term target is now calculated.
Last analysis expected a little more downwards movement to either 16.347 or possibly as low as 15.799 – 15.649. The low came one day after last analysis was published at 16.311, just 0.038 below the first target.
Last Elliott wave analysis advised to assume the trend remains the same until proven otherwise. More upwards movement continues the trend, but it is now weakening.