Category Archives: Gold Historical

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th April, 2017

A classic upwards breakout has unfolded as expected. In last analysis members were advised to enter a hedge or just enter long. With stops for long positions just below 1,240.24 or 1,221 (depending on trading strategy), members should now have profitable long positions. Short hedges, if entered, should have been automatically closed just above 1,269.72.

Trading advice for profit taking and managing long positions is given today.

It is time to step back and look at the bigger picture. Today’s analysis updates monthly and weekly charts.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th April, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th January, 2017

Gold has had a trend change. How high this next wave goes and what structure it takes will indicate which Elliott wave count at the monthly chart level may be correct.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th January, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th December, 2016

Short term downwards movement was expected. Price is now within the target range.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th December, 2016

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th November, 2016

A new low below 1,172.10 indicated more downwards movement, but the target for the alternate Elliott wave count at 1,169 was inadequate.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th November, 2016

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th August, 2016

Upwards movement was expected, although it was expected to be stronger than what transpired.

Summary: The trend is up. The target remains at 1,582. Confidence in targets may be had with price movement above 1,349.25. There is still some bearish indication from volume to warrant extreme caution with any long positions at this time, so for this reason an alternate wave count today is published. One risk management technique for positive long positions would be to move stops up to break even today. Always use a stop for all positions and do not invest more than 3% of equity on any one trade at this time.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

WEEKLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

This downwards movement labelled super cycle wave (a) subdivides as a double zigzag from the all time high.

Within the first zigzag labelled cycle wave w, primary wave C is 10.13 short of 1.618 the length of primary wave C. It should be noted that primary wave B is a rare running flat because intermediate wave (C) failed to move beyond the end of intermediate wave (A). This truncation occurred before a very strong downwards movement, which is the kind of situation in which a running flat may appear.

Within the second zigzag labelled cycle wave y, there is no Fibonacci ratio between primary waves A and C. Primary wave C is an ending contracting diagonal which meets all Elliott wave rules.

Grand Super Cycle wave IV may not be a combination because the first wave subdivides as a multiple, and the maximum number of corrective structures within a multiple is three. To label multiples within multiples increases the maximum beyond three, violating the rule.

It may not be a zigzag because Super Cycle wave (a) subdivides as a three and not a five.

This leaves two groups of corrective structures: flats or triangles.

Within an expanded flat or running triangle, Super Cycle wave (b) may make a new high above the start of Super Cycle wave (a) at 1,920.18.

Within a flat, Super Cycle wave (b) must retrace a minimum 90% of Super Cycle wave (a) at 1,833.71.

Within a triangle, there is no minimum nor maximum requirement for Super Cycle wave (b). The only requirement for a B wave within a triangle is it must be a corrective structure.

Super Cycle wave (b) may be any one of 23 possible corrective structures. First, a move of this size should have a clear five up on the daily and weekly charts.

So far there is a five up on the weekly chart that is now labelled primary wave 1. This was followed by a shallow three down labelled primary wave 2, which should be followed by another five up that is for now labelled primary wave 3 but may also be labelled primary wave C.

Within primary wave 3 (or primary wave C), no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 1,200.07.

When this next five up is complete, then an alternate wave count at the weekly chart level would be required. Cycle wave a is most likely to unfold as a five wave structure, but it may also be a three. When a 5-3-5 up is complete, then two wave counts at the weekly chart level would be required: one for cycle wave a as a continuing impulse and the other for cycle wave a as a completed zigzag.

The proportions of this wave count look good. Within both zigzags of cycle waves w and y, the C waves are longer in length and duration than the A waves. Cycle wave X is very brief and shallow, exactly as an X wave within a double zigzag should be. The only concern I have with this wave count would be the running flat of primary wave B within cycle wave w.

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave 2 is a complete expanded flat correction. Price from the low labelled primary wave 2 has now moved too far upwards to be reasonably considered a continuation of primary wave 2. Primary wave 3 is very likely to have begun and would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1 at 1,582.

Primary wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse.

So far intermediate waves (1) and (2) may be complete within primary wave 3. The middle of primary wave 3 may have begun and may also only subdivide as an impulse.

Within intermediate wave (3), the end of minor wave 1 is moved up to the last high. This fits on the hourly chart although it looks odd here on the daily chart. There was a small fourth wave correction up at the end of minor wave 1 and it subdivides on the hourly chart as an impulse. Minor wave 2 may be a complete zigzag, also subdividing as a zigzag on the hourly chart. If minor wave 2 is over, it would be 0.50 the depth of minor wave 1.

No second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 1,310.84 within minor wave 3.

At 1,437 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). If price keeps going upwards through this first target, or if it gets there and the structure is incomplete, then the next target would be at 1,552 where intermediate wave (3) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

The support line in cyan is adjusted today. Draw it from the start of intermediate wave (1) to the end of intermediate wave (2). Downwards corrections may bounce upwards from about this support line.

There may now be four overlapping first and second waves complete: primary, intermediate, minor and now minute. This wave count expects to see an increase in upwards momentum beginning this week.

HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

If the cyan support line copied over here from the daily chart is working, then minute wave ii should be over. Minute wave iii upwards should have begun.

At 1,513 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Within minor wave 3, minute waves i and now ii may be complete. Minute wave ii is a deep 0.66 zigzag, ending close to the cyan support line. At 1,420 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i, and at 1,476 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i.

Within minute wave ii, 1,349.25 is the low labelled minuette wave (a). A new high above this point could not be a fourth wave correction within an impulse developing lower. A new high above 1,349.25 would confirm that the downwards wave labelled minute wave ii was a three and was over. At that stage, more confidence may be had in targets and the overall upwards direction expected from this wave count.

The invalidation point will remain at the start of minute wave i while price remains below this confirmation point. If minute wave ii continues lower, it may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 1,310.84.

Within minute wave iii, so far two first and second waves may be complete, but only within minuette wave (i). When minuette wave (i) is complete, then another correction may unfold downwards and may show up on the daily chart as one or more red candlesticks or doji for minuette wave (ii). Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) below 1,330.01.

THIRD WAVE EXAMPLE – DAILY CHART

Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

In discussing the curved look to Gold’s impulses, particularly for its third waves, here is an example.

Within primary wave 1, the third wave of minor wave 3 had a strong curved look to it. The impulse begins more slowly and has deep and relatively time consuming second wave corrections: Minor wave 2 was 0.68 of minor wave 1, minute wave ii was 0.76 of minute wave i, minuette wave (ii) was 0.56 of minuette wave (i), and subminuette wave ii was 0.64 of subminuette wave i.

The curved look comes from the disproportion between second and fourth wave corrections within the impulse. Here, minute wave ii lasted 4 days and shows clearly on the daily chart yet minute wave iv was over within one day and does not show up with any red candlesticks or doji on the daily chart.

Momentum builds towards the middle of the impulse, continuing to build further during the fifth wave and ending in a blowoff top. This is typical of Gold and all commodities.

This tendency to blowoff tops and curved impulses is particularly prevalent for Gold’s third waves.

ALTERNATE WEEKLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

I have found a solution for Super Cycle wave (a) downwards as a five wave impulse, which meets all Elliott wave rules.

Ratios within Super Cycle wave (a) are: cycle wave III is just 5.19 short of 1.618 the length of cycle wave I, and cycle wave V has no Fibonacci ratio to either of cycle waves I or III.

Within Super Cycle wave (a), there is gross disproportion between cycle wave II and primary wave 2 one degree lower. Cycle wave II is very brief at six weeks and primary wave 2 is much longer in duration at 40 weeks. This gives this part of the wave count a very odd look. No rules are broken, so the wave count is technically valid.

Cycle wave III ends with a slight truncation for primary wave 5 by 1.96.

If Super Cycle wave (a) was a five wave impulse, then Super Cycle wave (b) may not move beyond its start above 1,920.18. Super Cycle wave (b) may be any one of more than 23 possible corrective structures. It may possibly now be a complete zigzag.

ALTERNATE DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

If it is over, then Super Cycle wave (b) would have been remarkably brief for a Super Cycle degree wave. It is possible that it may continue further sideways though. The zigzag upwards may have been only cycle wave a of a larger more time consuming flat or triangle.

If this alternate wave count is confirmed with a new low below 1,200.07, then alternate ideas must be considered for Super Cycle wave (b). At this stage, those ideas would not diverge with this chart; they would expect some downwards movement from here.

If a zigzag upwards is complete for Super Cycle wave (b) (or cycle wave a within it), then downwards movement should continue from here.

So far downwards movement may be an impulse for intermediate wave (1), followed by an expanded flat for intermediate wave (2).

Within intermediate wave (3) down, minor wave 1 may be an incomplete impulse. When minor wave 1 is complete, then minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 1,366.87.

Within minor wave 1, minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory above 1,349.25. This price point would be a very short term invalidation of this alternate idea. If it is passed, then the main wave count would increase in probability.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Gold Weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

The week before last completed a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern supported by stronger volume than the prior downwards week. Last week made a new high, then completed a red candlestick on lighter volume. Overall, the fall in price last week is not supported by volume at the weekly chart level. Last week looks to more likely be a corrective movement than a new trend.

On Balance Volume is still relatively bullish above the purple trend line, which is redrawn at the end of last week. A break below the purple line would be bearish. A break above the green line would be bullish.

RSI is not extreme. There is room for price to rise or fall.

DAILY CHART

Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

From the last high on 2nd of August, volume increased as price fell. The fall in price was supported by volume.

Overall, price for the last two days has risen in a small range on declining volume. The volume profile short term is bearish. This is concerning for the main wave count and the reason today for publishing an alternate.

It looks like price is range bound between resistance about 1,375 and support about 1,305. ADX has been mostly declining since 12th of July and price has overall moved sideways within this range. ATR has also been declining during this period, This supports ADX in expecting the market is consolidating. Volume is declining as price moves sideways.

It is the upwards day of 8th of July, during this big consolidation, that has strongest volume suggesting an upwards breakout is more likely than downwards.

It should be expected during a consolidation that price will swing from support to resistance and back again. Stochastics may be used to indicate when one swing ends and the next begins. At this stage, Stochastics is returning from overbought and is now about neutral. A downwards swing may be expected to continue until Stochastics reaches oversold and price reaches support about 1,305 at the same time.

Price swings during a consolidation do not move in straight lines, and support or resistance may be overshot yet price returns back to within the consolidation. This is one reason why consolidations are so difficult to trade.

RSI is close to neutral. There is room for price to rise or fall.

Trend lines on On Balance Volume are redrawn today. A break above the purple line would be a bullish signal. A break below the yellow line would be a bearish signal.

This analysis is published @ 08:22 p.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th August, 2016

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd July, 2016

In the short term, a small correction to about 1,325 was expected.

Price moved lower, reaching 1,320.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd July, 2016

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Grand Supercycle – 7th July, 2016

This Elliott wave count expects Gold is within a grand super cycle correction.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Grand Supercycle – 7th July, 2016

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th May, 2016

The main hourly Elliott wave count expected upwards movement for Monday from Gold, which is what happened.

Price has made a higher high and a higher low on slightly increasing volume.

Summary: At the beginning of this week, the picture is not as clear as last week. The main wave count expected stronger upwards movement. It still does, and the target remains at 1,477, but there is a very real risk that this count is wrong and price may move substantially lower for a few weeks. Risk remains at 1,237.97. If members have long positions, it is essential that risk is managed and stops are used. Do not invest more than 3-5% of equity on any one trade and stops should be set just below 1,237.97. For profitable long positions, members may like to consider moving stops to break even to remove the risk of losses if price moves strongly lower from here.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

WEEKLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

The cyan trend line is breached. This gives substantial confidence that Gold has very likely changed from bear to bull.

This downwards movement subdivides as a double zigzag from the all time high.

Within the first zigzag labelled cycle wave w, primary wave C is 10.13 short of 1.618 the length of primary wave C.

Within the second zigzag labelled cycle wave y, there is no Fibonacci ratio between primary waves A and C. Primary wave C is an ending contracting diagonal which meets all Elliott wave rules.

For this downwards movement this is the only wave count that I have been able to see so far which meets all Elliott wave rules. I remain aware that Elliott Wave International and Danerics have this downwards movement as a five wave impulse which ends with a contracting diagonal for the fifth wave, but that wave count violates the rule for wave lengths within a contracting diagonal. I will keep that wave count in mind, but for now I do not want to publish a wave count which does not meet all Elliott wave rules as laid out in Frost and Prechter.

Grand Super Cycle wave IV may not be a combination because the first wave subdivides as a multiple, and the maximum number of corrective structures within a multiple is three. To label multiples within multiples increases the maximum beyond three, violating the rule.

It may not be a zigzag because Super Cycle wave (a) subdivides as a three and not a five.

This leaves two groups of corrective structures: flats or triangles.

Within an expanded flat or running triangle, Super Cycle wave (b) may make a new high above the start of Super Cycle wave (a) at 1,920.18.

Within a flat, Super Cycle wave (b) must retrace a minimum 90% of Super Cycle wave (a) at 1,833.71.

Super Cycle wave (b) may be any one of 23 possible corrective structures. First, a move of this size should have a clear five up on the daily and weekly charts. That is still to complete. Within the first five up, no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 1,046.27.

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (2) may be a double combination.

Minor wave W is a zigzag, the first structure in a double. The two structures in the double may be joined by a simple zigzag for minor wave X in the opposite direction.

Minor wave Y may be a running contracting triangle. The triangle is supported by MACD hovering at the zero line here on the daily chart.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 below 1,237.97.

The next wave up for intermediate wave (3) should be swift and strong. It must move above the end of intermediate wave (1) at 1,282.68. It must move far enough above this point to allow room for intermediate wave (4) to unfold and remain above intermediate wave (1) price territory.

At 1,477 it would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). This target is reasonable because intermediate wave (2) was very shallow.

If intermediate wave (2) is over as labelled, then it may have totalled a Fibonacci 34 sessions.

Minor wave 2 is 0.71 the depth of minor wave 1. Minor wave 1 lasted two days. Minor wave 2 lasted six days. If it is over here, it would have good proportion and look like a clear three wave structure on the daily and hourly charts.

If minor wave 2 continues lower for another one or two days, as per the first hourly alternate wave count, it would still look reasonable in proportion to minor wave 1.

Gold often begins new trends slowly. There is a good example on this daily chart: the beginning of intermediate wave (1) saw brief impulses and time consuming deep second wave corrections at minor, minute and minuette wave degrees.

Golds impulses, particularly its third waves, normally accelerate at the middle and explode in a blowoff at the end of the fifth wave.

All hourly charts today will show movement from the low labelled minor wave 2 at 1,257.24 on 10th May.

HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave 2 fits as a zigzag.

Minor wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse. Minute wave i is incomplete.

Within minute wave i, there may now be two first and second waves complete: minuette waves (i) and (ii) now followed by subminuettte waves i and ii.

Subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i below 1,263.36, if it continues further.

A green base channel is added about minuette waves (i) and (ii). Lower degree corrections along the way up should find support at the lower green trend line.

Another base channel is added about subminuette waves i and ii. If subminuette wave ii is over, then along the way up downwards corrections should find support about the lower edge of this orange channel.

At 1,367 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. If this target is wrong, it may be too low. The next possible target would be at 2.618 the length of minor wave 1 at 1,433.

Confidence may be had in a trend change with each of these conditions being met, in order:

1. A five up followed by a three down which does not make a new low. This first condition is now met.

2. A breach of the upper edge of the pink channel. This is overshot today (see daily chart), but price quickly returned to below the upper edge. For confidence price needs to break above this channel and stay above it.

3. A new high above 1,295.34 would invalidate the reworked first alternate below.

4. A new high above 1,303.51. This will be final confirmation.

It would not be until the middle that acceleration to the upside may be expected to be clear for minor wave 3. The fourth wave corrections within it may be quick and shallow, and the fifth waves to end minor wave 3 and then the final fifth wave up of minor wave 5 also may be expected to be very strong movements, completing blowoff tops for Gold.

FIRST ALTERNATE HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

What if minor wave 2 is not over?

Sideways movement of the last several sessions is still not convincing as another impulse up so far.

Minor wave 2 may be continuing further as a more time consuming correction, still subdividing as a zigzag. The last four days may be a running contracting triangle for minute wave b which may now be incomplete.

Direction of price entry into the triangle is down, so direction of price exit from the triangle should be down.

Within the possible triangle, minuette wave (c) may have moved higher during Monday’s session. If it continues any further as a more time consuming and complicated double, then it may not move above the end of minuette wave (a) at 1,295.34. This is the final upper invalidation point for any triangle idea.

Minuette wave (d) may end when price touches the lower triangle trend line. Minuette wave (d) may not move beyond the end of minuette wave (b) below 1,257.24.

The following zigzag upwards for minuette wave (e) would most likely fall short of the (a)-(c) trend line and may not move beyond the end of minuette wave (c).

When the triangle is complete, then a five wave structure downwards for minute wave c would complete a zigzag for minor wave 2. That may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 below 1,237.97.

This alternate wave count expects sideways movement in an ever narrowing range for another two to three days, followed by a short sharp downwards thrust which may end close to but not below 1,237.97.

Thereafter, the upwards trend should resume.

This wave count is published primarily to illustrate why risk to long positions must remain at 1,237.97 while price remains below 1,303.51.

ALTERNATE DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart ly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

It is still possible that intermediate wave (2) is not over. With inconclusive sideways movement for the last five days, the probability of this wave count has slightly increased.

Normally, the first large second wave correction within a new trend is very deep, often deeper than the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio. The main wave count sees intermediate wave (2) as very shallow at only 0.19 of intermediate wave (1). This is unusual. And so this alternate must be considered.

If any members have long positions on Gold already it is essential that stops are used in case this alternate unfolds.

Intermediate wave (2) may be an expanded flat correction. Minor wave A is a three, minor wave B is a three and a 1.28 length of minor wave A. This is within the normal range of 1 to 1.38.

At 1,183 minor wave C would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave A. This would be the most likely target. If price keeps falling through this first target, then the second target would be at 1,108 where minor wave C would reach 2.618 the length of minor wave A.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,046.27.

ALTERNATE HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart ly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

The main purpose in publishing an hourly chart for this alternate is to determine what price points need to be passed to reduce the probability of this alternate and increase the probability of the main wave count.

A secondary purpose is to remain open to considering what this alternate looks like at a lower time frame. Alternates should always be considered; what if the main wave count is wrong? Alternates provide a road map for what should happen next if the main wave count is wrong.

Minor wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure. With inconclusive sideways movement for the last five days, an ending diagonal must now be considered and published.

Within an ending diagonal, all sub-waves must subdivide as zigzags. The fourth wave must overlap back into first wave price territory and may not move beyond the end of the second wave. Second and fourth waves are commonly from 0.66 to 0.81 the depth of the first and third waves they correct. Thus ending diagonals are choppy overlapping movements. Contracting diagonals, the more common variety, have their classic technical analysis equivalents as falling or rising wedges.

Minute wave i subdivides as a zigzag in the same way as minor wave 2 subdivides as a zigzag for the main wave count.

Minute wave ii is now a complete zigzag most likely. It is possible that it could continue higher. If it does, it may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 1,303.51.

Here, minute wave ii is 0.67 the depth of minute wave i which is within normal range of 0.66 to 0.81.

Minute wave iii must subdivide as a zigzag and must make a new low below the end of minute wave i below 1,257.24.

When minute wave iii is complete, then the type of diagonal, contracting or expanding, would be known, so a target range and minimum or maximum for minute wave iv may be calculated.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Gold Technical Analysis Chart Weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

How useful is weekly volume data?

Looking at recent movement, going back to March 2014, lets examine each rally and see if volume at the weekly level indicated weakness.

The first rally from June 2014 to July 2014 was six green weekly candlesticks in a row. Within the last four weekly candlesticks, three came on declining volume indicating weakness and the final week saw an increase in volume which may have been due to a volume spike on the final day at the high.

The next rally from November 2014 to January 2015 did not indicate much weakness. The last three strong upwards weeks of the rally came on strong volume, with only the final week showing weakness.

The next rally from March 2015 to May 2015 saw divergence with price and volume at the end compared to the first swing high within the rally: as price made a new high to end the rally, it came on lighter volume than the high of April within the rally. Overall, during this rally, it was an upwards week with strongest volume, but this was not a reliable indicator of future price direction as price completed the rally and went on to make new lows as the bear market continued.

The next rally from July 2015 to October 2015 also saw much lighter volume at its end compared to the start. The strongest week during the rally was a downwards week.

Turning attention to the current rally, from March 2016 to the last high at the start of May 2016, so far price comes overall on increasing volume as price is rising. So far that does not indicate weakness. Strongest weeks are downwards weeks.

Conclusion: Currently, for this market, weekly volume in terms of strongest vs weakest weeks is not a reliable indicator of future price direction. It may be better to “look inside” each week and analyse daily volume data. Currently, for this market, overall weekly divergence with price and volume may indicate weakness to upwards movement.

More weight will be given to volume analysis at the daily chart level.

On Balance Volume, however, will work well with trend lines at the weekly chart level. A few examples are drawn here:

On the week beginning 9th June, 2014, OBV broke upwards out of a consolidation. This preceded four more weeks of upwards movement for a bear market rally.

On the week beginning 6th October, 2014, OBV broke above a resistance line. This was followed by a new low for price and then a strong bear market rally. The consolidation zone here for OBV is not clear.

On the week beginning 6th July, 2015, OBV broke below a clearly defined and long held consolidation zone. This preceded two more strong downwards weeks for price.

On the week beginning 2nd November, 2015, OBV broke below a short support line delineating a short consolidation. This was followed by more downwards movement from price.

On the week beginning 25th January, 2016, OBV broke above a small consolidation zone. This was followed by several weeks more of strong upwards movement from price.

Now OBV is breaking below a reasonably long held and clearly defined consolidation zone. It would be entirely reasonable to expect price to follow by continuing lower for a few weeks. This piece of evidence strongly supports the alternate daily Elliott wave count.

Price has found resistance at the horizontal line about 1,310. The first support line may be about 1,225.

DAILY CHART

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Last week looked like Gold had broken out of a consolidation delineated by the pink support and resistance lines on 29th April. This strong upwards day broke above resistance and had strong volume. A throwback was expected.

Price turned and moved lower as expected for a throwback, to initially find support around the uppermost pink line, then the next pink line.

But price has failed to move strongly away from support; it seems to have stalled. This is concerning for the main wave count.

Overall, price is moving sideways on declining volume. This indicates another small consolidation, possibly an Elliott wave triangle which equates to a classic pennant pattern in this instance.

Pennant patterns are one of the most reliable continuation patterns, so the breakout direction would be expected to be upwards. They commonly come with declining volume, which is seen here. This favours the main hourly Elliott wave count.

Of recent days, volume increases as price rises, supporting the rise in price. The last two daily candlesticks again come with increasing volume. At the daily chart level, volume looks to be more bullish which also supports the main Elliott wave count.

ADX is flat indicating the market is not currently trending and ATR agrees as it is declining. ADX does not indicate a trend change: the +DX line remains above the -DX line.

On Balance Volume at the daily chart level is constrained within the two trend lines which are converging. A break above the green line would be bullish. A break below the blue line would be bearish. A bearish daily indication from OBV would switch this analysis strongly to bearish. A bullish indication from daily OBV would be interpreted in conjunction with weekly OBV, but it would not necessarily be strongly bullish.

RSI is neutral. There is room for price to rise or fall. There is currently no divergence between price and RSI to indicate weakness in either direction.

Stochastics is neutral. There is room for price to rise or fall. A fall in price may end when Stochastics reaches oversold.

This analysis is published @ 10:17 p.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th May, 2016

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th February, 2016

Downwards movement was expected for Friday’s session.

Price moved overall lower in a small inside day.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th February, 2016

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4th February, 2016

Upwards movement has now breached the final bear market trend line.

With confirmation of a trend change, the main wave count should now be bullish.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4th February, 2016