Tag Archives: technical analysis elliot

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th October, 2015

BEAR – MONTHLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX monthly bear 2014
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BEAR – DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX daily 2014
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BULL – MONTHLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX monthly bull 2014
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There are at this stage three likely structures for primary B for the bull wave count .

BULL – DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT – EXPANDED FLAT

GDX daily expanded flat 2014
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BULL – DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT – TRIANGLE

GDX daily triangle 2014
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BULL – DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT – COMBINATION

GDX daily combination 2014
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Intermediate wave (Y) may be an expanded flat. The target may be too low as it may not see primary B breach the bear market channel, and it should.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th September, 2015

Yesterday two scenarios were presented on the hourly charts for the short term. The second less likely scenario has played out.

Both Elliott wave counts expect the same direction next.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th September, 2015

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st August, 2015

A small correction is unfolding sideways.

The correction was expected to end Monday about 1,148 – 1,150, but it is not unfolding exactly as expected.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st August, 2015

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th August, 2015

Last analysis expected upwards movement to continue, which it has, but the target at 1,141 was inadequate.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th August, 2015

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th August, 2015

Upwards movement to 1,118 – 1,123 was expected. This is what happened, but only after a whipsaw took out the invalidation points on the hourly chart necessitating an updated short term chart for the hourly structure.

I have two wave counts for you today to consider all possibilities.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th August, 2015

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd July, 2015

Price continues to move slowly lower.

Another red candlestick fits the main Elliott wave count.

I have a new alternate Elliott wave count for you today.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd July, 2015

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st July, 2015

I will let Gold lead. For this reason only I will not publish a bull wave count for GDX.

GDX does not appear to have sufficient volume for Elliott wave analysis of this market to be reliable. It exhibits truncations readily, and often its threes look like fives while its fives look like threes. I will let my Gold analysis lead GDX, and I will not let GDX determine my Gold analysis for this reason.

Changes to last analysis are bold.

MONTHLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX monthly alternate 2014
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Price remains within the best fit channel on the monthly chart. A five wave structure down is completing, which may be an A wave within a larger correction.

Within minute wave iii, a second wave correction may not move beyond its start above 21.26.

At 11.22 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1).

At this stage, regular technical analysis strongly favours the bear wave count. A downwards trend is clear and strong.

GDX daily 2014
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The middle of the third wave for GDX may have now passed.

At 12.12 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i. This target expects there would be no more swift strong fifth wave extensions for GDX, which may not be a very reasonable expectation.

If the target is wrong, then it may be too high.

Subminuette wave iv may not move into subminuette wave i price territory. Look for it to find resistance at the upper edge of the orange channel, and if that is breached at the lower edge of the green channel.

Looking back at past major lows for GDX, a volume spike is not seen right at the low but one to four days prior to the low.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

GDX Technical Analysis 2014
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ADX continues to indicate a strengthening downward trend for GDX. On Balance volume continues to move lower along with price, the trend is supported by volume.

Price is below the 34 day EMA indicating a downward trend.

The gap looks like a breakaway or measuring gap and not a pattern gap, so it should not be expected to be filled.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th July, 2015

I have the same two Elliott wave counts for GDX. I still favour neither.

GDX does not appear to have sufficient volume for Elliott wave analysis of this market to be reliable. It exhibits truncations readily, and often its threes look like fives while its fives look like threes. I will let my Gold analysis lead GDX, and I will not let GDX determine my Gold analysis for this reason.

Changes to last analysis are bold.

BEAR ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX monthly alternate 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

Price remains within the best fit channel on the monthly chart. A five wave structure down is completing, which may be an A wave within a larger correction.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 23.22.

At 11.22 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1).

At this stage, regular technical analysis strongly favours the bear wave count. A downwards trend is clear and strong.

GDX daily 2014
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Intermediate wave (5) has now three overlapping first and second waves: minor waves 1 and 2, minute waves i and ii, and now also minuette waves (i) and (ii). This indicates strong downwards movement ahead.

At 12.12 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

Within minuette wave (iii), upwards corrections should find resistance at the upper green trend line. No second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 19.18.

Downwards momentum has not yet shown an increase beyond that seen for minute wave i, and so it should be expected to increase further in the next few weeks.

BULL ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX monthly 2014
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The bull wave count expects that the five wave impulse is complete for primary wave A down. Within it, the extended wave is intermediate wave (3). Intermediate wave (3) is 0.11 longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1), and there is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate wave (5) and either of (1) or (3).

The channel drawn about primary wave A down is a best fit. The upper edge is still providing resistance. For the bear count (or any variation of it) to be discarded this trend line must be breached. That would provide trend channel confirmation that primary wave A is over and the next wave of primary wave B would then be underway.

Because primary wave A subdivides as a five, primary wave B may not move beyond its start above 64.05.

Primary wave B must subdivide as a corrective structure. At this stage, it looks now like it may be unfolding as a flat correction and within it intermediate wave (A) is a three, a zigzag, and intermediate wave (B) is an incomplete double zigzag.

GDX daily 2014
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If intermediate wave (B) reaches 17.13 or below, then the minimum requirement for it to correct to 90% of intermediate wave (A) for a flat correction would be met. Because the downwards structure within intermediate wave (B) is incomplete, it looks very likely that this minimum would be met.

Intermediate wave (B) is unfolding as a double zigzag. The second zigzag labelled minor wave Y is deepening the correction.

The normal depth for a B wave within a flat correction is between 1 to 1.38 times the A wave. This gives a range for the normal depth of intermediate wave (B) between 16.45 to 11.85.

At 16.17 minute wave c would reach equality in length with minute wave a.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

GDX Technical Analysis 2014
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Blue Lines: from the high at 55.25 to the high at 28.03 price moved lower while On Balance Volume moved higher. This negative divergence may indicate a larger fall to come.

Lilac Lines: More recently, as price has made lower highs, OBV has also made lower highs. There is no divergence, so the fall in price is supported by a fall in volume.

Green Lines: Recently price has also made higher lows. Again OBV agrees. There is no divergence.

Price is now breaking below support of its green trend line, as is OBV. This is a further bearish indicator.

GDX Technical Analysis 2014
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ADX now indicates a clear and strengthening downwards trend.

OBV agrees with the fall in price. Price remains below the 34 day EMA. All regular TA indicators point to a strong downwards trend at this time for GDX. The bear wave count is favoured.

GDX Technical Analysis 2014
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This is my own particular method of trend line analysis.

Each series of parallel lines is coded with a different colour. I use this approach to suggest potential areas of support and resistance.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 3rd July, 2015

A small upwards correction was expected for the very short term, which is what is happening as the week comes to a close.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 3rd July, 2015

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th June, 2015

Both Elliott wave counts expected a little upwards movement, which may have been quick and brief, but price moved lower after a little sideways movement.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th June, 2015

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th June, 2015

Sideways movement in a larger range fits the bear Elliott wave count at the hourly chart level better than the bull.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th June, 2015

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th June, 2015

I have the same two Elliott wave counts for GDX. I still favour neither.

GDX does not appear to have sufficient volume for Elliott wave analysis of this market to be reliable. It exhibits truncations readily, and often its threes look like fives while its fives look like threes. I will let my Gold analysis lead GDX, and I will not let GDX determine my Gold analysis for this reason.

Bull Wave Count

GDX monthly 2014
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The bull wave count expects that a five wave impulse is complete for primary wave A down. Within it, the extended wave is intermediate wave (3). Intermediate wave (3) is 0.11 longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1), and there is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate wave (5) and either of (1) or (3).

The channel drawn about primary wave A down is a best fit. The upper edge is still providing resistance. For the bear count (or any variation of it) to be discarded this trend line must be breached. That would provide trend channel confirmation that primary wave A is over and the next wave of primary wave B would then be underway.

Because primary wave A subdivides as a five, primary wave B may not move beyond its start above 64.05.

Primary wave B must subdivide as a corrective structure.

GDX daily 2014
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The wave down labelled intermediate wave (X) is 88% of the prior upwards wave of intermediate wave (W). A flat correction can be ruled out for primary wave B, at this stage, because this is less than 90%. Intermediate wave (W) subdivides well as a zigzag.

Primary wave B may be unfolding as a double zigzag. The first zigzag in the double labelled intermediate wave (W) is complete. The double is joined by a three in the opposite direction, a zigzag labelled intermediate wave (X) which is also now complete. The second zigzag in the double is underway labelled intermediate wave (Y).

The purpose of the second zigzag in a double (and the third in a rare triple) is to deepen the correction when the first (and second) zigzag does not move price deep enough. To achieve this purpose the second (and third) zigzag moves substantially beyond the end of the first (and second). Intermediate wave (Y) may be expected to move substantially above the end of intermediate wave (W) at 23.22.

Within intermediate wave (Y), minor wave A is a complete leading contracting diagonal. Minor wave B is now a complete expanded flat. Within it, minute wave c is 0.04 longer than 1.618 the length of minute wave a.

At 28.12 minor wave C would reach 2.618 the length of minor wave A. This would see intermediate wave (Y) achieve its purpose of deepening the correction for primary wave B.

Bear Wave Count

GDX monthly alternate 2014
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While price continues to find strong resistance at the upper black trend line of this channel, this bear wave count must be considered alongside the bull wave count for GDX.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 23.22.

At 11.22 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1).

GDX daily 2014
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A new low below 17.29 would at this stage invalidate the bull wave count and provide confirmation for this bear wave count.

This bear wave count expects a third wave down to begin to gather momentum. At 12.12 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

Draw a base channel about minuette waves (i) and (ii). Along the way down, upwards corrections should find resistance at the upper trend line. A clear breach of the upper green line would reduce the probability of this bear wave count.

Technical Analysis

GDX Technical Analysis 2014
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Blue Lines: from the high at 55.25 to the high at 28.03 price moved lower while On Balance Volume moved higher. This negative divergence may indicate a larger fall to come.

Lilac Lines: More recently, as price has made lower highs, OBV has also made lower highs. There is no divergence, so the fall in price is supported by a fall in volume.

Green Lines: Recently price has also made higher lows. Again OBV agrees. There is no divergence.

The green and lilac trend lines on both price and OBV are converging suggesting a breakout is coming closer. With the strong divergence between price and OBV from September 2012 to July 2014 a downwards breakout may be slightly more likely.

GDX Technical Analysis 2014
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ADX is just over 15 and rising. The -DX line (dashed red) is above the +DX line (green) indicating this may be the start of a new downwards trend. If ADX rises to 20 or above a downwards trend would be more clearly indicated.

As price falls OBV also falls. There is no divergence, so this fall in price is supported by OBV.

Price is below the 34 day EMA. The trend may be expected to be more likely down than up at this stage.

GDX Technical Analysis 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

This is my own particular method of trend line analysis.

Each series of parallel lines is coded with a different colour. I use this approach to suggest potential areas of support and resistance.