Tag Archives: technical analysis elliot

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st May, 2015

I have the same two Elliott wave counts for GDX. I still favour neither.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX does not appear to have sufficient volume for Elliott wave analysis of this market to be reliable. It exhibits truncations readily, and often its threes look like fives while its fives look like threes. I will let my Gold analysis lead GDX, and I will not let GDX determine my Gold analysis for this reason.

Bull Wave Count

GDX monthly 2014

The bull wave count expects that a five wave impulse is complete for primary wave A down. Within it, the extended wave is intermediate wave (3). There is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate waves (3) and (1), and intermediate wave (5) is 0.98 short of equality in length with intermediate wave (1). (This chart is on a semi log scale).

The channel drawn about primary wave A down is a best fit. The upper edge is still providing resistance. For the bear count (or any variation of it) to be discarded this trend line must be breached. That would provide trend channel confirmation that primary wave A is over and the next wave of primary wave B would then be underway.

Because primary wave A subdivides as a five, primary wave B may not move beyond its start above 64.05.

Primary wave B must subdivide as a corrective structure.

GDX daily 2014

This daily chart shows all of primary wave B so far.

The wave down labelled intermediate wave (X) is 88% of the prior upwards wave of intermediate wave (W). A flat correction can be ruled out for primary wave B, at this stage, because this is less than 90%.

Primary wave B may be unfolding as a double zigzag. The first zigzag in the double labelled intermediate wave (W) is complete. The double is joined by a three in the opposite direction, a zigzag labelled intermediate wave (X) which is also now complete. The second zigzag in the double is underway labelled intermediate wave (Y).

The purpose of the second zigzag in a double (and the third in a rare triple) is to deepen the correction when the first (and second) zigzag does not move price deep enough. To achieve this purpose the second (and third) zigzag moves substantially beyond the end of the first (and second). Intermediate wave (Y) may be expected to move substantially above the end of intermediate wave (W) at 23.22.

Within intermediate wave (Y) minor wave A is a complete leading contracting diagonal. Minor wave B is most likely an incomplete expanded flat. I am not labelling minor wave B over at the low of minute wave a, that looks to be too brief.

Minor wave B may end closer to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave A about 18.46.

Thereafter, a five wave structure up (very likely to be an impulse) for minor wave C may be very long.

Bear Wave Count

GDX monthly alternate 2014

While price continues to find strong resistance at the upper black trend line of this channel this bear wave count must be considered alongside the bull wave count for GDX.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 23.22.

GDX daily 2014

Minute wave ii is now very likely complete. It is shorter in duration than minor wave 2 one degree higher.

A new low below 17.29 would at this stage invalidate the bull wave count and provide confirmation for this bear wave count.

This bear wave count expects a third wave down to begin to gather momentum.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th April, 2015

I have two wave counts for GDX today. I favour neither. Charts only today.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX does not appear to have sufficient volume for Elliott wave analysis of this market to be reliable. It exhibits truncations readily, and often its threes look like fives while its fives look like threes. I will let my Gold analysis lead GDX, and I will not let GDX determine my Gold analysis for this reason.

Bull Wave Count

GDX monthly 2014

GDX daily 2014

Bear Wave Count

GDX monthly alternate 2014

GDX daily 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th April, 2015

A new low below 1,184.04 has invalidated two Elliott wave counts, leaving now only two valid Elliott wave counts.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th April, 2015

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th April, 2015

Downwards movement for Wednesday was expected, but this is not what happened. While upwards movement remains below the invalidation point it makes the situation unclear. I will present four Elliott wave counts, 2 bull and 2 bear.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th April, 2015

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th March, 2015

I have a new bullish Elliott wave count for GDX for you. The bearish Elliott wave count will be an alternate, in line with Gold.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX does not appear to have sufficient volume for Elliott wave analysis of this market to be reliable. It exhibits truncations readily, and often its threes look like fives while its fives look like threes. I will let my Gold analysis lead GDX, and I will not let GDX determine my Gold analysis for this reason.

Main Wave Count

GDX monthly 2014

I have learned the hard way, specifically with AAPL, that in a market with insufficient volume (even at a monthly chart level) if a movement looks like a three or a five that this apparent clear structure may not be relied upon.

For GDX this downwards movement looks like a five wave impulse which may be complete. This wave count would required a clear breach of the channel before I have confidence in it.

If primary wave A is a five then primary wave B may not move beyond its start above 64.05.

Primary wave A lasted 38 months.

B waves exhibit the greatest variety in form and structure. Primary wave B may be a quick movement, or it may take longer. At this stage there are multiple corrective structures it may be unfolding as.

GDX daily 2014

If primary wave B has begun then it may be unfolding as a double zigzag (as labelled), or a single zigzag with a leading diagonal incomplete for primary wave A, or a double combination or a triangle. All possible corrective structures are still open.

Because the downwards wave labelled intermediate wave (X) is less than 90% the length of intermediate wave (W), this cannot be a flat correction unfolding and may only be a double zigzag or double combination.

The second corrective structure may be either a zigzag, flat or triangle, and can make a new low below the start at 16.45. There can be no lower invalidation point.

The only thing I am reasonably confident of for this main wave count is that overall GDX should be in an upwards trend for the next several weeks.

Intermediate wave (W) lasted 51 days and intermediate wave (X) lasted a Fibonacci 34 days. Intermediate wave (Y) may be expected to most likely last a Fibonacci 55 days.

Alternate Wave Count

GDX monthly alternate 2014

This was the only wave count up until today. I am letting Gold determine the wave count for GDX.

It is possible that intermediate wave (5) is incomplete. At 14.13 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). Within it minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 27.78.

GDX daily 2014

Minor wave 3 must move below the end of minor wave 1 at 16.45.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th March, 2015

A slight new low below 20.42 is enough to invalidate the alternate Elliott wave count. For GDX I now have only one Elliott wave count.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX does not appear to have sufficient volume for Elliott wave analysis of this market to be reliable. It exhibits truncations readily, and often its threes look like fives while its fives look like threes. I will let my Gold analysis lead GDX, and I will not let GDX determine my Gold analysis for this reason.

GDX monthly 2014

I have learned the hard way, specifically with AAPL, that in a market with insufficient volume (even at a monthly chart level) if a movement looks like a three or a five that this apparent clear structure may not be relied upon.

For GDX this downwards movement looks like a developing five as an impulse. The final fifth wave for intermediate wave (5) looks like it is underway.

The channel drawn here is a best fit. The upper edge has recently provided resistance again.

At 14.13 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). However, so far in my analysis of GDX I have noticed it does not reliably exhibit Fibonacci ratios between its actionary waves. This makes target calculation with any reliability impossible for this market. The target at 14.13 is indicative only of a somewhat likely point for downwards movement to end.

Within intermediate wave (5) minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 27.78.

GDX daily 2014

I had expected minute wave ii to move higher to 22.13 or above. It did not manage that, and only managed to correct to 0.389 of minute wave i.

At 16.86 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i. This target expects an extended fifth wave to end minor wave 3 so that minor wave 3 moves far enough below the end of minor wave 1 to allow room for subsequent upwards / sideways movement for minor wave 4, which cannot move back into minor wave 1 price territory.

As minute wave iii continues lower keep redrawing the channel. Draw the first trend line from the end of minute wave i to wherever minute wave iii ends, then place a parallel copy on the high labelled minute wave ii. Minute wave iv may be contained within this channel.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory above 20.50.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th February, 2015

Downwards movement and an increase in momentum were expected. Price remains within the lower half of the channel on the hourly chart, but has not managed to make a new low.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th February, 2015

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th February, 2015

A slight new low below 20.42 is enough to invalidate the alternate Elliott wave count. For GDX I now have only one Elliott wave count.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX does not appear to have sufficient volume for Elliott wave analysis of this market to be reliable. It exhibits truncations readily, and often its threes look like fives while its fives look like threes. I will let my Gold analysis lead GDX, and I will not let GDX determine my Gold analysis for this reason.

GDX monthly 2014

I have learned the hard way, specifically with AAPL, that in a market with insufficient volume (even at a monthly chart level) if a movement looks like a three or a five that this apparent clear structure may not be relied upon.

For GDX this downwards movement looks like a developing five as an impulse. The final fifth wave for intermediate wave (5) looks like it is underway.

The channel drawn here is a best fit. The upper edge has recently provided resistance again.

At 14.13 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). However, so far in my analysis of GDX I have noticed it does not reliably exhibit Fibonacci ratios between its actionary waves. This makes target calculation with any reliability impossible for this market. The target at 14.13 is indicative only of a somewhat likely point for downwards movement to end.

Within intermediate wave (5) minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 27.78.

GDX daily 2014

So far within the new downwards movement of minor wave 3, I have tried to see this as either a series of overlapping first and second waves or a completed diagonal. The diagonal has a better fit.

This wave count expects some upwards movement for minute wave ii. Second wave corrections following leading diagonals in first wave positions are often quite deep, at least to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio and sometimes deeper. I would expect minute wave ii to move higher to 22.13 or above.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 23.22.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4th February, 2015

The situation for GDX remains exactly the same as last Elliott wave analysis.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX daily 2014

For GDX the main and alternate wave counts have exactly the same subdivisions, only the degree of labelling differs. This means it is impossible at this stage to determine which is correct, and in my judgement they have a completely even probability.

A-B-C and 1-2-3 have exactly the same subdivisions as they both subdivide 5-3-5. This main wave count requires a new low below 20.42 for confirmation.

At this stage a new high above 23.22 would substantially reduce the probability (but not finally invalidate) of this wave count. If this happens the alternate will be strongly preferred.

Alternatively, if this main wave count is correct then downwards movement should begin to build momentum as a third wave begins.

GDX daily alternate 2014

This wave count moves everything within intermediate wave (5) up one degree to see it as a complete impulse.

Within the new upwards trend a clear five up should develop on the daily chart. Within that minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory below 20.42.

Minor wave 2 looks like a zigzag. Minor wave 4 is probably incomplete, and may continue sideways to be better in proportion to minor wave 2 (although GDX does not always have nicely proportioned waves). If minor wave 4 is a flat correction it would exhibit alternation with minor wave 2. This may include a new high above 23.22 for minute wave b, because within a flat the B wave may move beyond the start of its A wave. If this happens this alternate would be strongly favoured.

At first glance it looks like minor wave 4 may be unfolding as a triangle, but that does not fit. Minute wave c would be slightly below the end of minute wave a which is invalid for a contracting triangle.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th January, 2015

Downwards movement did not continue as expected. A new high above 1,272.34 invalidated the Elliott wave count at the hourly chart level.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th January, 2015

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th January, 2015

The third wave is over, and it did not reach the target. The fourth wave is either over or halfway through.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX monthly 2014

I see an incomplete five wave structure downwards. The final fifth wave for intermediate wave (5) is unfolding. At 14.13 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1).

I have changed this monthly chart to a semi log scale to try and get the channel right. This channel is a best fit and may show where minor wave 2 upwards finds resistance. This indicates that the target for minor wave 2 to end may be too high.

GDX daily 2014

Minuette wave (iii) is over and minuette wave (iv) is either over also, or halfway through.

Minuette wave (ii) was a deep 65% correction, so I would expect minuette wave (iv) to be shallow. So far it is 45% which fits. Minuette wave (ii) was probably a combination lasting 5 days. Minuette wave (iv) may well be more brief if it is a zigzag for alternation.

It is impossible for me to tell if this fourth wave correction is over, but I am confident that GDX needs at least one more upwards wave to complete this structure.

Redraw the channel about minute wave c as shown. Look for upwards movement to find resistance at the upper edge of this channel.

When a final fifth wave up is complete, then a subsequent breach of this channel would provide confirmation that minute wave c is over, and so minor wave 2 should be over. At that point minor wave 3 down should have begun.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 at 27.78.

Within minute wave c minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory below 19.03.