Tag Archives: elliott wave usd

USD Index: Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis | Charts – 15th November, 2018

An upwards breakout on the 12th of November was today proven false as price is back below resistance.

Summary: The bearish Elliott wave count expects a new high to 98.09 or above and then a trend change. The bullish Elliott wave count expects a trend change now.

The bottom line here is that there is an upwards trend in place since the low on the 21st of September. Only a new swing low below 95.48 would signal a trend change.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

BEARISH ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

QUARTERLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Quarterly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

The wave count begins at 0.

A huge double zigzag may be continuing lower.

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Downwards movement from the high in January 2017 cannot be a fourth wave correction within an ongoing impulse higher because a new low below 89.62 would be back in first wave price territory.

That indicates the last big wave up may be a completed three, and for that reason this is my main wave count.

WEEKLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave I downwards fits very well as a five wave impulse. This may be reasonably expected to be followed by a three wave structure upwards.

For the USD Index, historically the first second wave correction within a new trend is usually extremely deep, about 0.80 to 0.90 of the first wave it corrects. It would be typical here to see Cycle wave II reach to 0.80 or deeper of cycle wave I.

Cycle wave II may be unfolding as a zigzag, which is the most common type of corrective structure.

Primary wave A may now be a completed five wave impulse.

Primary wave B may be complete as labelled on this weekly chart. However, it may also be labelled as incomplete as per the labelling for this movement on the alternate weekly chart below.

If primary wave B continues, then it may be as a flat, combination, double zigzag or triangle. Primary wave B may not move beyond the start of primary wave A below 88.25.

Cycle wave II may not move beyond the start of cycle wave I above 103.82.

Draw a channel about cycle wave II as shown. This is Elliott’s technique for a correction. Primary wave C may end either mid way within the channel or about the upper edge.

DAILY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

If primary wave B is complete, then primary wave C should have begun. Primary wave B will fit as a brief and shallow zigzag. This is entirely possible; B waves exhibit the greatest variety in Elliott wave structure and price behaviour.

Primary wave C may be unfolding as an ending expanding diagonal. Because the diagonal is expanding intermediate wave (5) must be longer than intermediate wave (3) and must end beyond 98.09, which is where it would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (3).

Within an ending diagonal, all sub-waves must subdivide as zigzags. Within the final zigzag of intermediate wave (5), minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A below 95.67. If price breaks below 95.67 without first moving higher to 98.09 or above, then my analysis of cycle wave II is wrong; cycle wave II may have ended.

It is also possible to move the degree of labelling within primary wave B all down one degree and see it as an incomplete flat, combination or triangle.

BULLISH ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

QUARTERLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Quarterly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

A single zigzag down to the last major low may still be complete.

A new upwards trend may continue. So far there may be two overlapping first and second waves. Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 below 72.69.

Primary wave 2 should find strong support at the lower edge of the teal base channel if it gets down that low.

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave 2 may be a complete zigzag. However, this wave down can also be seen as a five and primary wave 2 may yet continue lower.

WEEKLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

This bullish wave count sees the last wave down as a completed zigzag. If this is correct, then within primary wave 3 no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 88.25.

DAILY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (2) may be an incomplete expanded flat. The first wave down within it is labelled minor wave A, which is a complete zigzag. Minor wave B may now be complete at 1.22 the length of minor wave A, which is within the most common range for B waves of flats of 1 to 1.38 times the length of their A waves.

Minor wave C may move below the end of minor wave A at 93.81 to avoid a truncation. A target is calculated now for minor wave C to reach the most common Fibonacci ratio to minor wave A within an expanded flat correction.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

October was a strong bullish month. This may be reasonably expected to be followed by more upwards movement. This supports the main Elliott wave count.

DAILY CHART

US Dollar Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The upwards breakout above resistance at 96.80 on the 12th of November is false as price has now returned back below resistance.

However, since the 21st of September there is a series of higher highs and higher lows, the definition of an upwards trend. Only a new low now below 95.48 would provide a lower low and indicate this upwards trend may be over.

Published @ 03:15 a.m. EST.

USD Index: Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis | Charts – 9th November, 2018

A pullback or a time consuming consolidation was expected after last analysis on the 26th of August. Price continued lower until the 20th of September and from there has bounced up strongly.

This analysis will attempt to determine if the bounce is just an upwards swing within an ongoing consolidation or the start of a new upwards trend.

Summary: Price is within a small consolidation. It looks like an upwards breakout may be more likely than downwards. A close above resistance about 96.80 on an upwards day with support from volume would be an upwards breakout. If that happens, then look for the upwards move to end about 97.19 to 97.87.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

BEARISH ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

QUARTERLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Quarterly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

The wave count begins at 0.

A huge double zigzag may be continuing lower.

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Downwards movement from the high in January 2017 cannot be a fourth wave correction within an ongoing impulse higher because a new low below 89.62 would be back in first wave price territory.

That indicates the last big wave up may be a completed three, and for that reason this is my main wave count.

WEEKLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave I downwards fits very well as a five wave impulse. This may be reasonably expected to be followed by a three wave structure upwards.

For the USD Index, historically the first second wave correction within a new trend is usually extremely deep, about 0.80 to 0.90 of the first wave it corrects. It would be typical here to see Cycle wave II reach to 0.80 or deeper of cycle wave I. If my target on the daily chart below is wrong, it may not be high enough.

Cycle wave II may be unfolding as a zigzag, which is the most common type of corrective structure.

Primary wave A may now be a completed five wave impulse.

Primary wave B may be complete as labelled on this weekly chart. However, it may also be labelled as incomplete as per the labelling for this movement on the alternate weekly chart below.

If primary wave B continues, then it may be as a flat, combination, double zigzag or triangle. Primary wave B may not move beyond the start of primary wave A below 88.25.

Cycle wave II may not move beyond the start of cycle wave I above 103.82.

Draw a channel about cycle wave II as shown. This is Elliott’s technique for a correction. Primary wave C may end either mid way within the channel or about the upper edge.

DAILY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

If primary wave B is complete, then primary wave C should have begun. Primary wave B will fit as a brief and shallow zigzag. This is entirely possible; B waves exhibit the greatest variety in Elliott wave structure and price behaviour.

Within primary wave C, intermediate waves (1) and (2) may now be complete. Intermediate wave (3) may have begun.

Within intermediate wave (3), no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 94.78.

Intermediate wave (3) may now be ready to exhibit an increase in upwards momentum, as the middle strongest portion of it passes. This may have the strength to effect an upwards breakout from the current consolidation. If price closes above resistance about 97 on an upwards day with support from volume, then have confidence that a third wave up at two degrees is underway.

It is also possible to move the degree of labelling within primary wave B all down one degree and see it as an incomplete flat, combination or triangle.

BULLISH ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

QUARTERLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Quarterly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

A single zigzag down to the last major low may still be complete.

A new upwards trend may continue. So far there may be two overlapping first and second waves. Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 below 72.69.

Primary wave 2 should find strong support at the lower edge of the teal base channel if it gets down that low.

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave 2 may be a complete zigzag. However, this wave down can also be seen as a five and primary wave 2 may yet continue lower.

WEEKLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

This bullish wave count sees the last wave down as a completed zigzag. If this is correct, then within primary wave 3 no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 88.25.

Intermediate wave (2) may be an incomplete flat, double zigzag or combination. The first wave down within it is labelled minor wave A; this is a complete zigzag. Minor wave B may now be complete or almost complete, but it may continue higher to make a new high above the start of minor wave A at 96.98 as in an expanded flat.

When minor wave B is complete, then minor wave C may move below the end of minor wave A at 93.81 to avoid a truncation.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

October was a strong bullish month. This may be reasonably expected to be followed by more upwards movement. This supports the main Elliott wave count.

DAILY CHART

US Dollar Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

There is a small consolidation with support about 95.30 and resistance about 96.80. A break above resistance would be an upwards breakout. For confidence look for any upwards breakout to have support from volume.

The strong Bullish Engulfing Candlestick pattern also completes a Morning Doji Star. This is very bullish and supports the main Elliott wave count.

Unfortunately, StockCharts do not provide volume data for currencies; no volume analysis is made for the USD Index. This does reduce the accuracy and depth of this analysis.

A note about the correlation co-efficient: Any two sets of data which have a correlation co-efficient that spends time in the shaded area between +0.5 to -0.5 are considered to not have a reliable correlation. Currently, the correlation co-efficient between Gold and the USD Index is very weakly negative at -0.15. This weak negative correlation may be only due to chance and not because there exists a relationship between the two sets of data.

Published @ 03:00 a.m. EST.

USD Index – Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – 21st August, 2018

Last analysis expected a little more upwards movement at the daily chart level to complete primary wave A. This is what has happened.

Summary: A pullback here or a time consuming sideways consolidation may develop for primary wave B. Thereafter, the upwards trend may resume for primary wave C.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

BEARISH ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

QUARTERLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Quarterly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

The wave count begins at 0.

A huge double zigzag may be continuing lower.

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Downwards movement from the high in January 2017 cannot be a fourth wave correction within an ongoing impulse higher because a new low below 89.62 would be back in first wave price territory.

That indicates the last big wave up may be a completed three, and for that reason this is my main wave count.

WEEKLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave I downwards fits very well as a five wave impulse. This may be reasonably expected to be followed by a three wave structure upwards.

For the USD Index, historically the first second wave correction within a new trend is usually extremely deep, about 0.80 to 0.90 of the first wave it corrects. It would be typical here to see Cycle wave II reach to 0.80 or deeper of cycle wave I.

If cycle wave II is beginning with a five up, then it may be unfolding as a zigzag, which is the most common type of corrective structure.

Primary wave A may now be a completed five wave impulse. Primary wave B may now begin.

Primary wave B may last anywhere from a Fibonacci 13 up to a Fibonacci 55 weeks. It may be either a relatively quick sharp pullback as a zigzag, or a more time consuming large sideways consolidation as a flat, combination or triangle.

When primary wave B is complete, then the upwards trend may resume for primary wave C, which may end reasonably close to 103.82 but not above this point.

Cycle wave II may not move beyond the start of cycle wave I above 103.82.

DAILY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave A fits very well as a complete five wave impulse.

So far primary wave A remains contained within a channel. When price breaks out of the lower edge of the channel, then that would provide confidence that primary wave A is complete and primary wave B may have begun.

Primary wave B may not move beyond the start of primary wave A below 88.25.

Primary wave B may be any one of more than 23 possible corrective structures. It may be choppy and overlapping as a combination, flat or triangle, or it may be a more brief sharp pullback as a zigzag.

BULLISH ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

QUARTERLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Quarterly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

A single zigzag down to the last major low may still be complete.

A new upwards trend may continue. So far there may be two overlapping first and second waves. Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 below 72.69.

Primary wave 2 should find strong support at the lower edge of the teal base channel if it gets down that low.

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave 2 may be a complete zigzag. However, this wave down can also be seen as a five and primary wave 2 may yet continue lower.

WEEKLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

This bullish wave count sees the last wave down as a completed zigzag. If this is correct, then within primary wave 3 no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 88.25.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

DAILY CHART

US Dollar Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Last analysis noted the consolidation with resistance in a zone about 95 to 95.45. Price broke above resistance, and now downwards movement may be a backtest of support at prior resistance.

If support holds here, then expect price to bounce up and move higher.

Published @ 01:23 a.m. EST.

USD Index – Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – 3rd August, 2018

Last analysis on the 10th of June expected a deep correction for a B wave. Price has mostly moved sideways, and has now formed a fairly well defined consolidation zone. A correction has developed, but at this stage it is not deep.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

BEARISH ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

QUARTERLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Quarterly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

The wave count begins at 0.

A huge double zigzag may be continuing lower.

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Downwards movement from the high in January 2017 cannot be a fourth wave correction within an ongoing impulse higher because a new low below 89.62 would be back in first wave price territory.

That indicates the last big wave up may be a completed three, and for that reason this is my main wave count.

WEEKLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave I downwards fits very well as a five wave impulse. This may be reasonably expected to be followed by a three wave structure upwards.

So far upwards movement has developed a little more since last analysis. This now looks like an almost complete five up.

If cycle wave II is beginning with a five up, then it may be unfolding as a zigzag, which is the most common type of corrective structure.

When primary wave A is a completed five wave impulse, then primary wave B should begin.

Cycle wave II may not move beyond the start of cycle wave I above 103.82.

DAILY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

So far primary wave A fits very well as an almost complete five wave impulse.

There is excellent alternation between the double flat correction of intermediate wave (2) and the triangle of intermediate wave (4). There is no adequate Fibonacci ratio between intermediate waves (1) and (3).

Within intermediate wave (3), there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

So far primary wave A remains contained within a channel. When price breaks out of the lower edge of the channel, then that may be an indication that primary wave A is complete and primary wave B may then have begun.

While primary wave A looks incomplete, intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory.

When primary wave A could be complete, then the following correction for primary wave B may not move beyond the start of primary wave A.

Primary wave B may be any one of more than 23 possible corrective structures. It may be choppy and overlapping as a combination, flat or triangle, or it may be a more brief sharp pullback as a zigzag. It may be expected to last anywhere from about 4 to 8 months.

BULLISH ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

QUARTERLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Quarterly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

A single zigzag down to the last major low may still be complete.

A new upwards trend may continue. So far there may be two overlapping first and second waves. Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 below 72.69.

Primary wave 2 should find strong support at the lower edge of the teal base channel if it gets down that low.

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave 2 may be a complete zigzag. However, this wave down can also be seen as a five and primary wave 2 may yet continue lower.

WEEKLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

This bullish wave count sees the last wave down as a completed zigzag. If this is correct, then within primary wave 3 no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 88.25.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

DAILY CHART

US Dollar Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Price is consolidating with resistance in a zone about 95.00 to 95.45 and support in a zone about 93.45 to about 92.85. Unfortunately, neither StockCharts nor BarChart provide volume data for the USD Index. If they did, then the direction of the day with strongest volume would be an indicator of the most likely breakout direction from the consolidation.

Published @ 08:53 p.m. EST on 4th August, 2018.

USD Index – Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – 10th June, 2018

Last analysis in March expected upwards movement towards 97.97. Price has thus far continued to move higher, up to 95.02.

BEARISH ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

QUARTERLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Quarterly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

A huge double zigzag may be continuing lower.

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Downwards movement from the high in January 2017 cannot be a fourth wave correction within an ongoing impulse higher because a new low below 89.62 would be back in first wave price territory.

That indicates the last big wave up may be a completed three, and for that reason this is my main wave count.

WEEKLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

A five down may be complete within the new trend.

A three up now looks complete. This may be primary wave A within a flat correction, or primary wave W within a double zigzag or double combination.

A flat correction would require primary wave B to retrace a minimum 0.9 length of primary wave A at 88.93. Within a flat, primary wave B may make a new extreme beyond the start of primary wave A at 88.25.

A double zigzag would expect a relatively brief and shallow correction for primary wave X.

A double combination would expect a relatively deep and possibly time consuming correction for primary wave X.

Cycle wave II may not move beyond the start of cycle wave I above 103.82.

BULLISH ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

QUARTERLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Quarterly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

A single zigzag down to the last major low may still be complete.

A new upwards trend may continue. So far there may be two overlapping first and second waves. Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 below 72.69.

Primary wave 2 should find strong support at the lower edge of the teal base channel if it gets down that low.

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave 2 may be a complete zigzag. However, this wave down can also be seen as a five and primary wave 2 may yet continue lower.

WEEKLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

This bullish wave count sees the last wave down as a completed zigzag. If this is correct, then within primary wave 3 no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 88.25.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

DAILY CHART

US Dollar Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

This analysis is published @ 11:02 p.m. EST.

USD Index Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – 21st March, 2018

A quick analysis today with a bullish and a bearish Elliott wave count, and classic technical analysis.

BEARISH ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

QUARTERLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Quarterly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

A huge double zigzag may be continuing lower.

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

This cannot be a fourth wave correction within an ongoing impulse higher because a new low below 89.62 has recently occurred, which would be back in first wave price territory.

That indicates the last big wave up may be a completed three, and for that reason this is my main wave count.

WEEKLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

A five down may be complete within the new trend. This should be followed by a three up that may correct to about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio at 97.57.

Cycle wave II may not move beyond the start of cycle wave I above 103.82.

BULLISH ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

QUARTERLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Quarterly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

A single zigzag down to the last major low may still be complete.

A new upwards trend may continue. So far there may be two overlapping first and second waves. Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 below 72.69.

Primary wave 2 should find strong support at the lower edge of the teal base channel if it gets down that low.

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave 2 may be a complete zigzag. However, this wave down can also be seen as a five and primary wave 2 may yet continue lower.

WEEKLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

This bullish wave count sees the last wave down as a completed zigzag. If this is correct, then within primary wave 3 no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 88.25.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

DAILY CHART

US Dollar Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

This analysis is published @ 04:56 a.m. EST.

USD Index Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – 10th November, 2017

The USD Index continued to move lower as the last Elliott wave analysis expected. The target for a low at primary degree was 94.83. The low was reached 3.01 below the target.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

A Super Cycle degree impulse looks to be incomplete for Super Cycle wave (I).

Cycle waves I, II and now III look complete within Super Cycle wave (I) impulse. Cycle wave III is just 0.50 longer than 1.618 the length of cycle wave I.

Ratios within cycle wave III are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between primary waves 3 and 1, and primary wave 5 is just 0.5 shorter than equality in length with primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 is the longest extension and has the strongest slope.

Cycle wave II was a deep 0.89 single or double zigzag lasting 26 months. Given the guideline of alternation, cycle wave IV may be expected to be a more shallow sideways correction which would likely be longer lasting. So far it has lasted just ten months.

WEEKLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

A breach of the maroon Elliott channel provided an indication that cycle wave III was over and cycle wave IV had arrived.

If cycle wave IV is an expanded flat or a running triangle or a combination, then primary wave B or X within it may make a new high above the start of primary wave A or W at 103.82.

Primary wave B or X would most likely be a zigzag, but it may be any corrective structure. It may be a sharp upwards movement or a choppy overlapping time consuming consolidation.

For the short term, while price remains within the narrow yellow channel, assume the trend remains up.

DAILY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This labelling assumes that primary wave B may be a zigzag. But this labelling may need to change as primary wave B may be any one of more than 23 possible corrective structures.

The blue channel is an Elliott channel about the first five up. This may be intermediate wave (A). Assume the trend remains up while price remains within this channel.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory below 93.79.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

ADX is still declining, so it does not yet indicate a trend.

Both the one and two year moving averages are now negatively sloped and price is below both. The one year average may be now crossing below the two year average. This would be a full bore bearish look.

With RSI not oversold and Stochastics exhibiting no divergence with price at lows, there is room for price to fall further.

It is very important to note that at the monthly chart level Gold and the USD Index do not have a reliable negative correlation. At this high time frame, they can spend months not correlated.

Each market should be and will be analysed separately. We cannot expect that analysis of one market showing movement expected in one direction means our analysis of the other market should show it to move in the opposite direction, because the math proves that is not the case often enough. To make this correlation assumption without looking at the math is dangerous to your trading account.

DAILY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Give the bearish engulfing candlestick pattern weight, because this suggests the Elliott wave count is wrong for the short term and a reasonable pullback or consolidation may develop about here.

The upwards trend here is extreme. Look out for a turn.

This analysis is published @ 03:00 a.m. EST.

USD Index Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd May, 2017

The USD Index has been moving lower since January 2017.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

A Super Cycle degree impulse looks to be incomplete for Super Cycle wave (I).

Cycle waves I, II and now III look complete within Super Cycle wave (I) impulse. Cycle wave III is just 0.50 longer than 1.618 the length of cycle wave I.

Ratios within cycle wave III are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between primary waves 3 and 1, and primary wave 5 is just 0.5 shorter than equality in length with primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 is the longest extension and has the strongest slope.

Cycle wave II was a deep 0.89 zigzag lasting 26 months. Given the guideline of alternation, cycle wave IV may be expected to be a more shallow sideways correction which would likely be longer lasting. So far it has lasted just four months. It may be in its very early stages still.

WEEKLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

There is some alternation between the combination of primary wave 2 and the flat of primary wave 4.

When the channel is drawn on the monthly and weekly charts, it shows price has not yet broken below the lower edge.

When the channel is drawn on the daily chart, it shows price has just broken below the lower edge. This is the same for both semi log and arithmetic scales.

With a breach of the channel on the daily chart, it should be assumed to provide some confidence that cycle wave III is over and cycle wave IV has arrived.

DAILY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

If cycle wave IV is unfolding as a flat, combination or triangle, then the first move down should unfold as a three. This may be a zigzag for primary wave A of a flat or triangle, or primary wave W of a double combination.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

This analysis supports the Elliott wave count at the monthly chart level.

Divergence between price and RSI is very bearish.

RSI and Stochastics are close to neutral. There is plenty of room for price to fall here.

ADX and ATR agree: the market is not currently trending at the monthly level.

It is very important to note that at the monthly chart level Gold and the USD Index do not have a reliable negative correlation. At this high time frame, they can spend months not correlated.

Each market should be and will be analysed separately. We cannot expect that analysis of one market showing movement expected in one direction means our analysis of the other market should show it to move in the opposite direction, because the math proves that is not the case often enough. To make this correlation assumption without looking at the math is dangerous to your trading account.

DAILY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

While price made a new low for the 22nd of May, Stochastics did not. This single day divergence may be followed by a small bounce. RSI is oversold also, suggesting a small bounce here.

MACD is bearish, supporting the trend. Bollinger Bands are widening as price moves lower, so the trend has normal increasing volatility.

Both short and mid term moving averages have a negative slope and the short term average is below the mid term average. The long term 200 day average still has a positive slope, but price is below it.

It is looking increasingly like the USD is within a downwards trend that may continue for some time. This supports the Elliott wave count.

The trend has plenty of room to continue given that ADX is not yet extreme.

At the daily chart level, Gold and the USD Index do not have a reliable negative correlation.

The correlation coefficient must be above 0.5 (a positive correlation) or below -0.5 (a negative correlation) for any two sets of data to have a reliable correlation. Any two sets of data that have a correlation coefficient that spends any time between 0.5 and -0.5 does not mathematically have a reliable correlation. This area is shaded on the chart.

Currently, the correlation coefficient of Gold and the USD Index is -0.43. Currently, they do not have a negative correlation.

It is often assumed that these two markets will move in opposite directions. The math proves that assumption to be false.

This analysis is published @ 12:29 a.m. EST.

USD Index Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – 12th December, 2015

I have only one bullish Elliott wave count for the USD Index.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

The US Dollar has been in a bull market since July 2011. So far there is no confirmation of a trend change. The bull market should be assumed to remain intact until proven otherwise.

Ratios within intermediate wave (1) are: minor wave 3 is 24.98 longer than 2.618 the length of minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minor waves 3 or 1.

Within minor wave 3, there are no Fibonacci ratios between minute waves i, iii and v.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 8.46 short of 0.382 the length of minuette wave (iii).

Within intermediate wave (3), minor wave 3 is 87.36 longer than 4.236 the length of minor wave 1.

Minor wave 3, within intermediate wave (3), shows strongest upwards momentum. MACD supports the Elliott wave count.

Within intermediate wave (3), minor wave 2 was a very deep 0.98 zigzag. Minor wave 4 is a shallow flat correction. There is perfect alternation between these two corrections which increases the probability of this wave count.

Draw a channel about intermediate wave (3) using Elliott’s first technique: draw the first trend line from the highs labelled minor waves 1 to 3, then place a parallel copy on the low labelled minor wave 2. So far this contains all of intermediate wave (3). The lower edge of this channel is proving useful in showing where downwards movement is finding support.

The US Dollar was in a sideways consolidation since mid March. During this sideways movement it is an upwards week which has strongest volume. This indicates that when the consolidation is complete an upwards breakout is more likely than downwards. So far, at this stage, it looks like price has now broken out of this consolidation upwards as expected.

A final support line is shown in cyan.

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave 4 was a flat correction. Minute wave b is a 105% correction of minute wave a, so this is a regular flat. Minute wave c is longer than normal for a C wave within a regular flat. There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves a and c.

The sideways consolidation turned out to be a leading contracting diagonal for minute wave i. This was followed by a relatively deep 0.52 flat correction for minute wave ii.

At 12,601 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

At 13,421 minor wave 5 would reach equality in length with minor wave 3.

This wave count expects a long extension for minor wave 5.

Within minute wave iii, the first wave for minuette wave (i) may now be complete, but it has a slightly truncated fifth wave. This slightly reduces the probability of this wave count and indicates caution. Risk management as always is the key to successful trading. This small truncation indicates traders should be careful to manage risk, if using this analysis for trading decisions.

So far minuette wave (ii) may be a complete quick shallow zigzag, at 0.48 the depth of minuette wave (i). If minuette wave (ii) continues any further, it should find strong support at the lower blue trend line copied over from the weekly chart.

The green base channel is drawn about minuette waves (i) and (ii). If minuette wave (ii) moves lower, redraw this channel. Draw the first trend line from the start of minuette wave (i) to the end of minuette wave (ii), then place a parallel copy on the higher price extreme within minuette wave (i) at the end of subminuette wave iii.

If price breaks above the upper edge of this base channel, then a third wave up would be confirmed. Along the way up, downwards corrections should find support at the lower edge of this channel.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

At the weekly chart level, the strongest volume during the sideways range from early March to October 2015, was an upwards week. This indicated price should break out upwards. New highs in November are the result.

On 5th November price made a new high on an increase in volume. This was an upwards breakout, supported by volume.

It is consistently upwards days which show strongest volume since that breakout. This supports the trend. The rise in price is supported by volume and is not suspicious.

Short term, at the low of 10th December, there is slight divergence with price and RSI. On 10th December price made a new low below the prior short term swing low of 3rd December while RSI did not make a corresponding low. This indicates weakness in downwards movement and is very often accompanied by a trend change. In the short term, some upwards movement should be expected from here. This supports the Elliott wave count which labels this downwards correction as a complete second wave zigzag.

ADX is rising and above 15, the red -DX line is above the green +DX line, so a downwards trend is indicated by ADX. ATR disagrees: it is flat indicating no clear trend at this stage. With these two lagging indicators not in agreement with each other and not with the Elliott wave count, caution is advised. The picture here is unclear and may be resolved if price now moves higher for a few days as RSI indicates it will.

The series of blue and pink trend lines are my own technique which I strongly favour when trading. Along the way up, price may find support and resistance at these series of lines; these may assist to time entry points. The first of each series of trend lines is drawn from the price points labelled and parallel copies are placed higher up at various swing lows and highs.

On Balance Volume is bullish while it remains above the trend line.

Overall, the bullishness of volume, OBV and RSI should be favoured over the lagging indicator of ADX at this time. This indicates overall upwards movement from the USD. There will be corrections along the way up, and the third wave expected to begin does not necessarily have to start out quickly (although it may).

USD Index Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – 15th November, 2015

I have only one bullish Elliott wave count for the USD Index.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

The US Dollar has been in a bull market since July 2011. So far there is no confirmation of a trend change. The bull market should be assumed to remain intact until proven otherwise.

Ratios within intermediate wave (1) are: minor wave 3 is 24.98 longer than 2.618 the length of minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minor waves 3 or 1.

Within minor wave 3, there are no Fibonacci ratios between minute waves i, iii and v.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 8.46 short of 0.382 the length of minuette wave (iii).

Within intermediate wave (3), minor wave 3 is 87.36 longer than 4.236 the length of minor wave 1.

Minor wave 3, within intermediate wave (3), shows strongest upwards momentum. MACD supports the Elliott wave count.

Within intermediate wave (3), minor wave 2 was a very deep 0.98 zigzag. Minor wave 4 is now complete as a shallow flat correction.

Draw a channel about intermediate wave (3) using Elliott’s first technique: draw the first trend line from the highs labelled minor waves 1 to 3, then place a parallel copy on the low labelled minor wave 2. So far this contains all of intermediate wave (3). The lower edge of this channel is again proving useful in showing where downwards movement is finding support.

The US Dollar was in a sideways consolidation since mid March. During this sideways movement it is an upwards week which has strongest volume. This indicates that when the consolidation is complete an upwards breakout is more likely than downwards. So far, at this stage, it looks like price has now broken out of this consolidation upwards as expected.

A final support line is shown in bright aqua blue.

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave 4 did not complete as a triangle, as last analysis expected, but was over sooner as a flat correction. Minute wave b is a 105% correction of minute wave a, so this is a regular flat. Minute wave c is longer than normal for a C wave within a regular flat. There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves a and c.

The sideways consolidation was not a fourth wave triangle, which was what I had expected. Instead, the sideways consolidation turned out to be a leading contracting diagonal for minute wave i. This was followed by a relatively deep 0.52 flat correction for minute wave ii.

At 13,062 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i.

This wave count expects a long extension for minor wave 5.

No second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 11,855 within minute wave iii. Minuette wave (ii) should find strong support again about the lower edge of the blue channel copied over here from the weekly chart.

USD Index Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – 25th September, 2015

I have only one bullish Elliott wave count for the USD Index.

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

The US Dollar has been in a bull market since July 2011. So far there is no confirmation of a trend change.The bull market should be assumed to remain intact until proven otherwise.

Ratios within intermediate wave (1) are: minor wave 3 is 24.98 longer than 2.618 the length of minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minor waves 3 or 1.

Within minor wave 3, there are no Fibonacci ratios between minute waves i, iii and v.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 8.46 short of 0.382 the length of minuette wave (iii).

Within intermediate wave (3), minor wave 3 is 87.36 longer than 4.236 the length of minor wave 1.

Minor wave 3, within intermediate wave (3), shows strongest upwards momentum. MACD supports the Elliott wave count.

Within intermediate wave (3), minor wave 2 was a very deep 0.98 zigzag. Minor wave 4 may be unfolding as a very shallow triangle which would exhibit perfect alternation.

Draw a channel about intermediate wave (3) using Elliott’s first technique: draw the first trend line from the highs labelled minor waves 1 to 3, then place a parallel copy on the low labelled minor wave 2. So far this contains all of intermediate wave (3). Minor wave 4 may find support at the lower edge of this channel if it gets that far.

The US Dollar has been in a sideways consolidation since mid March. During this sideways movement it is an upwards week which has strongest volume. This indicates that when the consolidation is complete an upwards breakout is more likely than downwards.

A final support line is shown in bright aqua blue.

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

The daily chart shows the whole structure of minor wave 4 which may complete as a triangle, as expected, but it is also possible the triangle may be invalidated and the structure may morph into a combination.

Minute wave d may not move beyond the end of minute wave b above 12,096 for the triangle to remain valid. This invalidation point is not black and white because for a barrier triangle D may end slightly above B, as long as the B-D trend line remains essentially flat.

Minute wave e may not move beyond the end of minute wave c below 11,867. This point is black and white for the triangle. If it is breached, then minor wave 4 may be morphing into a combination.

I would not consider the possibility that minor wave 4 could be over at the low labelled minute wave a because it would not exhibit alternation with minor wave 2; they would both be zigzags.