Last analysis expected upwards movement to continue towards a target at 1,320. Price did make a new high but was well short of the target.
Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th October, 2017
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GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th October, 2017
The overall upwards trend continues.
Summary: Note that inaccurate data from StockCharts substantially reduces the confidence in classic technical analysis today.
While price remains above 1,284.48 and most importantly within the pink base channel on the main hourly chart, assume the trend remains the same, upwards. The target is at 1,319 in the first instance and may be as high as 1,412.
If price breaks below the base channel, then expect a pullback to test support at prior resistance is underway. The target for it to end would be firstly at 1,281 but may be as low as 1,273. If a pullback does eventuate here, then use it as an opportunity to join the new upwards trend.
Always use stops and invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.
New updates to this analysis are in bold.
Last monthly charts for the main wave count are here, another monthly alternate is here, and video is here.
Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.
The wave counts will be labelled first and second. Classic technical analysis will be used to determine which wave count looks to be more likely. In terms of Elliott wave structure the second wave count has a better fit and fewer problems.
FIRST ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
WEEKLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
There are more than 23 possible corrective structures that B waves may take, and although cycle wave b still fits well at this stage as a triangle, it may still be another structure. This wave count looks at the possibility that it may be a double zigzag.
If cycle wave b is a double zigzag, then current upwards movement may be part of the second zigzag in the double, labelled primary wave Y.
The target remains the same.
Within intermediate wave (C), no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 1,205.41. However, prior to invalidation, this wave count may be discarded if price breaks below the lower edge of the black Elliott channel. If this wave count is correct, then intermediate wave (C) should not break below the Elliott channel which contains the zigzag of primary wave Y upwards.
There are two problems with this wave count which reduce its probability in terms of Elliott wave:
1. Cycle wave b is a double zigzag, but primary wave X within the double is deep and time consuming. While this is possible, it is much more common for X waves within double zigzags to be brief and shallow.
2. Intermediate wave (B) within the zigzag of primary wave Y is a double flat correction. These are extremely rare, even rarer than running flats. The rarity of this structure must further reduce the probability of this wave count.
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
The analysis will focus on the structure of intermediate wave (C). To see details of all the bull movement for this year see daily charts here.
Intermediate wave (C) must be a five wave structure, either an impulse or an ending diagonal. It is unfolding as the more common impulse.
It is possible that minor waves 1 and now 2 may both be over. Minor wave 2 may have ended very close to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio. If it continues lower, then minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 below 1,205.41.
Minor wave 1 lasted 44 days and minor wave 2 may have lasted 20 days, just one short of a Fibonacci 21.
It is of some concern now that minor wave 3 appears to be starting out rather slowly. This is somewhat unusual for a third wave and offers some support now to the second Elliott wave count. When StockCharts data is fixed, then this rise in price of the last few days may be more accurately analysed.
HOURLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
Assume the trend remains the same until proven otherwise. It is possible that minute wave ii may be over as a very shallow double combination.
If this first hourly wave count is correct, then within minute wave iii any corrections should find very strong support at the lower edge of the pink base channel about minute waves i and ii. Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) below 1,284.48.
This first wave count requires more upwards movement to have support from volume and exhibit an increase in upwards momentum.
If price breaks below the lower edge of the base channel, then use the alternate hourly chart below.
ALTERNATE HOURLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
If price breaks below the lower edge of the pink base channel on the first hourly chart, expect a pullback to test support at prior resistance is underway. Prior resistance was the upper edge of the pink Elliott channel, which has been copied over here from the first daily chart.
The first second wave correction at the start of a new trend for Gold is almost always very deep. If the target here is wrong, it may not be low enough.
Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 1,260.72.
SECOND ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
WEEKLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
It is still possible that cycle wave b is unfolding as a regular contracting or barrier triangle.
Within a triangle, one sub-wave should be a more complicated multiple, which may be primary wave C. This is the most common sub-wave of the triangle to subdivide into a multiple.
Intermediate wave (Y) now looks like a complete zigzag at the weekly chart level.
Primary wave D of a contracting triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08. Contracting triangles are the most common variety.
Primary wave D of a barrier triangle should end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line remains essentially flat. This involves some subjectivity; price may move slightly below 1,123.08 and the triangle wave count may remain valid. This is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white.
Finally, primary wave E of a contracting or barrier triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave C above 1,295.65. Primary wave E would most likely fall short of the A-C trend line. But if it does not end there, then it can slightly overshoot that trend line.
Primary wave A lasted 31 weeks, primary wave B lasted 23 weeks, and primary wave C lasted 38 weeks.
The A-C trend line now has too weak a slope. At this stage, this is now a problem for this wave count, the upper A-C trend line no longer has such a typical look.
Within primary wave D, no part of the zigzag may move beyond its start above 1,357.09.
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
This second wave count expects the new wave down may be deeper and longer lasting than the first wave count allows for.
A common length for triangle sub-waves is from 0.8 to 0.85 the length of the prior wave. Primary wave D would reach this range from 1,170 to 1,158.
If primary wave C is correctly labelled as a double zigzag, then primary wave D must be a single zigzag.
Within the single zigzag of primary wave D, intermediate wave (A) is labelled as a complete impulse.
Intermediate wave (A) lasted 20 days, just one short of a Fibonacci 21. Intermediate wave (B) may be about the same duration, so that this wave count has good proportions, or it may be longer because B waves tend to be more complicated and time consuming.
Intermediate wave (B) may be a sharp upwards zigzag, or it may be a choppy overlapping consolidation as a flat, triangle or combination.
HOURLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
This hourly chart is essentially the same as the alternate hourly chart for the first wave count. The target is different though.
If the target for the alternate hourly wave count is wrong, it may not be low enough. This hourly chart shows a lower target which may be slightly more likely. This target would expect a test of support at the upper edge of the yellow best fit channel (this channel is drawn in exactly the same way as the pink Elliott channel on the first wave count).
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
WEEKLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The candlestick for last week is not a Hammer reversal pattern. The lower shadow must be at minimum twice the length of the real body and this one falls short. The long lower wick is still bullish though.
The lower wick with a decline in volume for downwards movement last week does look like at least an interim low is in place.
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
StockCharts data for $GOLD has been inaccurate for two sessions now. This makes any confidence in classic analysis impossible. This analysis comes with this caveat.
If this On Balance Volume is to be believed, then it is bullish. I have no confidence in volume bars for the last three sessions here.
There is room for price to rise. Look for resistance about 1,305 to 1,310.
Click chart to enlarge.
With this chart, I’m using BarChart data for some volume analysis.
The very light volume for the last four sessions does not support the rise in price, so it is suspicious. This offers more support to the second Elliott wave count, which sees upwards movement as a B wave. B waves should exhibit weakness.
I do not like using BarChart and MotiveWave for On Balance Volume analysis because it squashes On Balance Volume into too small a space and does not allow for accurate trend line analysis. The trend lines here are different for this reason. If this data is used, then On Balance Volume looks more bullish.
GDX
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The reversal pattern of the Bearish Engulfing candlestick for yesterday’s session may now be fulfilled. Today’s candlestick has a very long lower wick, which is bullish.
This candlestick may also be read as a Hanging Man pattern, but the bullishness of the long lower wick on a Hanging Man pattern means it requires bearish confirmation from the next session before it can be read as bearish.
Overall, this chart suggests an upwards day for GDX tomorrow.
Published @ 09:13 p.m. EST.
[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Specific trading advice and comments will remain private for members only.]
Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th October, 2017
GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th October, 2017
The overall upwards trend continues, which is what the Elliott wave counts expected at the daily chart level.
Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th October, 2017
GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th October, 2017
The target for downwards movement was 1,256. Price has reached 1,260.72, 4.42 short of the target.
Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th October, 2017
GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 3rd October, 2017
Downwards movement continued as both Elliott wave counts expected.
Volume analysis will be used to indicate which of three hourly Elliott wave counts looks most likely.
Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 3rd October, 2017
GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th September, 2017
Yesterday’s strong upwards movement has been reversed. A new low below 1,296.23 indicated the alternate hourly Elliott wave count should be used.
Summary: The bigger picture reverts to seeing a pullback continue here to about 1,261. It may be as low as 1,170 – 1,158.
However, the very short term picture today is unclear. Although today reversed yesterday’s gains, volume does not support today’s downwards fall in price. It is suspicious.
It is possible that an expanded flat may be unfolding. For the short term, a sideways consolidation may be incomplete.
Watch On Balance Volume carefully for a signal. It will come within a very few days.
Always trade with stops and invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.
New updates to this analysis are in bold.
Last monthly charts for the main wave count are here, another monthly alternate is here, and video is here.
Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.
The wave counts will be labelled first and second. Classic technical analysis will be used to determine which wave count looks to be more likely.
FIRST ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
WEEKLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
There are more than 23 possible corrective structures that B waves may take, and although cycle wave b still fits well at this stage as a triangle, it may still be another structure. This wave count looks at the possibility that it may be a double zigzag.
If cycle wave b is a double zigzag, then current upwards movement may be part of the second zigzag in the double, labelled primary wave Y.
The target remains the same.
Within intermediate wave (C), no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 1,205.41. However, prior to invalidation, this wave count may be discarded if price breaks below the lower edge of the black Elliott channel. If this wave count is correct, then intermediate wave (C) should not break below the Elliott channel which contains the zigzag of primary wave Y upwards.
There are two problems with this wave count which reduce its probability in terms of Elliott wave:
1. Cycle wave b is a double zigzag, but primary wave X within the double is deep and time consuming. While this is possible, it is much more common for X waves within double zigzags to be brief and shallow.
2. Intermediate wave (B) within the zigzag of primary wave Y is a double flat correction. These are extremely rare, even rarer than running flats. The rarity of this structure must further reduce the probability of this wave count.
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
The analysis will focus on the structure of intermediate wave (C). To see details of all the bull movement for this year see daily charts here.
Intermediate wave (C) must be a five wave structure, either an impulse or an ending diagonal. It is unfolding as the more common impulse.
It is possible that minor wave 1 may have been over at the last high and the current pullback may be minor wave 2. Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 below 1,205.41.
The strong reversal today indicates that minor wave 2 is most likely not over and may continue lower to reach a more normal depth of about 0.618 the length of minor wave 1, about 1,261. This would also see minor wave 2 have a better proportion to minor wave 1 in terms of duration; minor wave 1 lasted 44 days and so far minor wave 2 has lasted only 12 days. If it continues now for another 9 days, it may total a Fibonacci 21.
HOURLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
This wave count would expect minor wave 2 to now continue for another 9 days, if it exhibits a Fibonacci duration of a total 21 days.
When the first zigzag in a correction has not moved price deep enough, then a second zigzag should be considered. Here, the first zigzag of minute wave w is only a 0.45 length of minor wave 1. Second wave corrections are usually deeper than this.
X waves within double zigzags are commonly brief and shallow. Minute wave x fits this definition here.
If this correction for minor wave 2 is correctly identified as a double zigzag, then minute wave y must subdivide 5-3-5. Within the zigzag of minute wave y, minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a) above 1,313.39. Minuette wave (b) should find very strong resistance about the upper edge of the best fit channel if it gets that high.
Along the way down, to the target at 1,261, there should be another bounce to last one to three days for minuette wave (b). Price is not expected to move in a straight line. It almost never does.
Minuette wave (a) looks to be incomplete.
Note: The labelling on the alternate chart for this downwards movement works in the same way for this main wave count. Minor wave 2 may also be a single zigzag. The low of the 21st of September may be minute wave a. Minute wave b may be continuing sideways as an expanded flat or double zigzag.
This means that the expectation of continuing downwards movement here cannot be relied upon. The lack of support today from volume indicates it may be a B wave.
SECOND ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
WEEKLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
It is still possible that cycle wave b is unfolding as a regular contracting triangle.
Within a triangle, one sub-wave should be a more complicated multiple, which may be primary wave C. This is the most common sub-wave of the triangle to subdivide into a multiple.
Intermediate wave (Y) now looks like a complete zigzag at the weekly chart level.
Primary wave D of a contracting triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08. Contracting triangles are the most common variety.
Primary wave D of a barrier triangle should end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line remains essentially flat. This involves some subjectivity; price may move slightly below 1,123.08 and the triangle wave count may remain valid. This is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white.
Finally, primary wave E of a contracting or barrier triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave C above 1,295.65. Primary wave E would most likely fall short of the A-C trend line. But if it does not end there, then it can slightly overshoot that trend line.
Primary wave A lasted 31 weeks, primary wave B lasted 23 weeks, and primary wave C lasted 38 weeks.
The A-C trend line now has too weak a slope. At this stage, this is now a problem for this wave count, the upper A-C trend line no longer has such a typical look.
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
This second wave count expects the new wave down may be deeper and longer lasting than the first wave count allows for.
The blue base channel on this second wave count is drawn in exactly the same way as the pink Elliott channel on the first daily chart. For this second wave count the middle of minor wave 3 should have the power to break below support at the lower edge of the base channel. If price does behave like this, it would offer support for this second wave count over the first wave count.
A common length for triangle sub-waves is from 0.8 to 0.85 the length of the prior wave. Primary wave D would reach this range from 1,170 to 1,158.
If primary wave C is correctly labelled as a double zigzag, then primary wave D must be a single zigzag.
HOURLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
This wave count now sees the last wave down differently to the first wave count. This wave count sees a possible five down complete. Subdivisions within it are labelled at the daily chart level.
If the trend is down, then a five down labelled minor wave 1 may be complete. Now a bounce may be unfolding as a three wave structure for minor wave 2.
Minor wave 2 would be too brief and shallow, for this wave count, if it was over at yesterday’s high. That may be only minute wave w of a double zigzag for minor wave 2.
The target for this bounce to end is about 1,330.
While minor wave 2 may be a double zigzag labelled w-x-y, it may also be a flat correction labelled a-b-c. The most common type of flat is an expanded flat where minute wave b would be 1.05 times the length of minute wave a or longer. A new low does not mean that minor wave 2 is over; it would at this stage still most likely be part of minor wave 2.
Expanded flats are very common structures. They can often be identified by weakness within their B waves.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
WEEKLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Weak support here from On Balance Volume may halt the fall in price or initiate a small bounce. If On Balance Volume breaks below the support line thisweek, that would be a weak bullish signal.
Overall, this chart remains mostly bullish. At this stage, with downwards movement not being well supported by volume, it should be assumed to be a pullback within a larger trend until shown otherwise.
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Trend lines on On Balance Volume are adjusted today. On Balance Volume should be watched very carefully over the next few days. It must break out of these converging trend lines and when it does that shall offer a weak signal. The signal can only be weak because each line has only been tested twice before and neither are very long held.
A lack of support from volume for downwards movement during Tuesday’s session suggests weakness in downwards movement. This supports the alternate hourly wave count slightly; this is how B waves look.
Long lower wicks on the last two daily candlesticks are bullish. Volume short term is bullish. Stochastics is slightly bullish.
On Balance Volume is neutral. ADX is neutral. RSI is neutral.
ATR is bearish.
Overall, this chart is very mixed. It would be wisest to wait for a signal from On Balance Volume to have more confidence in the next direction for price here.
GDX
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
GDX also lacks support from volume today for downwards movement. Short term volume for both markets is slightly bullish.
Both have trend lines on On Balance Volume, which are converging quickly, so a breakout will come soon. It would be wisest also to wait for an On Balance Volume signal for GDX to have confidence in the next direction for price.
Published @ 06:35 p.m. EST.
[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Specific trading advice and comments will remain private for members only.]
Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th September, 2017
GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th September, 2017
Upwards movement continues as the main Elliott wave count expects.
Price today bounced up perfectly from the upper edge of the base channel. This gives us an important clue as to what should happen next.
Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th September, 2017
GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st August, 2017
A little downwards movement followed by more upwards movement is exactly what all three hourly Elliott wave counts expected for Monday’s session.
Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st August, 2017
GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4th July, 2017
Sideways movement fits expectations following the strong downwards day of the 3rd of July, which was also expected. The Elliott wave count is nicely predicting price behaviour at this time, and it has substantial support from classic technical analysis.
Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4th July, 2017
GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th May, 2017
An upwards breakout looks to have occurred earlier than expected.
Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th May, 2017
GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th May, 2017
A little sideways movement followed by another wave down was expected in last analysis. This is what has happened.
Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th May, 2017
GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th April, 2017
A correction was expected to continue for another one to few days. Today’s red candlestick with a long lower wick mostly fits that expectation.
Price remains above the invalidation point but the wave count no longer has the right look, so today it is changed.
Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th April, 2017
GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th March, 2017
Downwards movement continued for Thursday as expected. Price is now below the lower edge of the base channel on the hourly chart.
Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th March, 2017