More upwards movement continued to start the new week as the main Elliott wave count expected.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th February, 2017

More upwards movement continued to start the new week as the main Elliott wave count expected.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th February, 2017

Gold is still range bound.

Classic analysis, with a heavy reliance on volume analysis, is used to determine probability of the main versus alternate Elliott wave counts today.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st February, 2017

Yesterday’s Elliott wave and classic technical analysis expected some sideways / upwards movement for Thursday, which is exactly what happened.

Price has found resistance right at the trend line on the daily chart.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th November, 2016

More downwards movement is very close now to the second target, which was at 1,240.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th October, 2016

The first target for downwards movement has been met.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th October, 2016

Downwards movement was expected.

Again, price moved overall sideways to complete a very small daily Gravestone doji.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd August, 2016

The main Elliott wave count from last analysis expected price to move higher, which is what has happened.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4th July, 2016

Last analysis expected a counter trend movement to continue. A long legged doji candlestick fits this description.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th June, 2016

Price moved lower as expected. A small candlestick, which may end as a doji for Thursday’s session, fits the Elliott wave count nicely.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 8th January, 2015

A little more downwards movement takes this move into its fifth day. I am swapping the Elliott wave counts over. Yesterday’s alternate is now the main preferred wave count. This is in line with GDX and Silver.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th December, 2014

A small red candlestick on the daily Elliott wave chart changes the wave count at the hourly chart level. The overall mid term target remains the same, and the trend is still upwards.

**Summary: This sideways movement is most likely very close to completion. Overall the trend remains up. When sideways movement is done the next move from Gold should be up and is likely to show a clear strong increase in upwards momentum. The mid term target at 1,262 remains the same.**

*Click on charts to enlarge*

Primary wave 4 is complete and primary wave 5 is unfolding. Primary wave 5 may only subdivide as an impulse or an ending diagonal. So far it looks most likely to be an impulse.

Within primary wave 5 intermediate wave (1) fits perfectly as an impulse. There is perfect alternation within intermediate wave (1): minor wave 2 is a deep zigzag lasting a Fibonacci five days and minor wave 4 is a shallow triangle lasting a Fibonacci eight days, 1.618 the duration of minor wave 2. Minor wave 3 is 9.65 longer than 1.618 the length of minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is just 0.51 short of 0.618 the length of minor wave 1. I am confident this movement is one complete impulse.

Intermediate wave (2) is an incomplete expanded flat correction. Within it minor wave A is a double zigzag. The downwards wave labelled minor wave B has a corrective count of seven and subdivides perfectly as a zigzag. Minor wave B is a 172% correction of minor wave A. This is longer than the maximum common length for a B wave within a flat correction at 138%, but within the allowable range of twice the length of minor wave A. Minor wave C may not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to minor wave A, and I think the target for it to end would best be calculated at minute degree. At this stage I would expect intermediate wave (2) to end close to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1) just below 1,281.

Intermediate wave (1) lasted a Fibonacci 13 weeks. If intermediate wave (2) exhibits a Fibonacci duration it may be 13 weeks to be even with intermediate wave (1). Intermediate wave (2) has just begun its ninth week, and so it may continue now for another five weeks in total.

So far within minor wave C the highest volume is on an up day. This supports the idea that at this stage the trend is up.

The upper maroon trend line is the upper edge of the Elliott channel drawn about this impulse on the weekly chart, and copied over here to the daily chart. See the most recent Gold Historic Analysis to see how this trend line is drawn on the weekly chart. If minor wave C lasts long enough it should find extremely strong resistance at that trend line, I would not expect that trend line to be broken while primary wave 5 is incomplete.

The aqua blue trend line is a simple TA trend line which is showing where price is currently finding resistance. The power of the middle of the upcoming third wave should break above this trend line. If this trend line begins to be breached that may be the earliest indication that the main hourly wave count is correct today. I am copying this trend line over to the main hourly wave count today.

The target for primary wave 5 at this stage remains the same. At 956.97 it would reach equality in length with primary wave 1. However, if this target is wrong it may be too low. When intermediate waves (1) through to (4) within it are complete I will calculate the target at intermediate degree and if it changes it may move upwards. This is because waves following triangles tend to be more brief and weak than otherwise expected. A perfect example is on this chart: minor wave 5 to end intermediate wave (1) was particularly short and brief after the triangle of minor wave 4.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) above 1,345.22. I have confidence this price point will not be passed because the structure of primary wave 5 is incomplete because downwards movement from the end of the triangle of primary wave 4 does not fit as either a complete impulse nor an ending diagonal.

To see a prior example of an expanded flat correction for Gold on the daily chart, and an explanation of this structure, go here.

*Main Hourly Wave Count*

My labelling of the structure of minuette wave (iii) yesterday was wrong. Because current sideways movement shows clearly on the daily chart this is not micro wave 4, and may be a second wave correction within minuette wave (iii).

Only subminuette wave i within the middle of the third wave may be complete. This would expect that minuette wave (iii) would be extending. It is very common, extremely common, for third waves to extend. When they do their subdivisions often show up nice and clear on the daily chart. So it is entirely possible that subminuette wave ii is showing on the daily chart.

If price moves below 1,221.34 then this would be my only hourly wave count.

However, it may be that the upper edge of the pink base channel about minute waves i and ii (copied over to hourly charts from the daily chart) is strong enough to provide support to downwards movement, and force this current correction to be very shallow.

I would judge this main hourly wave count to have a greater probability, maybe about 60% today, because it expects to see the most likely situation of an extending third wave with stronger momentum than the first wave.

Subminuette wave ii may not move below the start of subminuette wave i at 1,186.29.

When subminuette wave ii is complete then the next movement for Gold should be a third wave of a third wave of a third wave. It should show a clear strong increase in upwards momentum.

Minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i at 1,262. This target still remains the same.

The structure and subdivisions are seen for both hourly wave counts in exactly the same way, only the degree of labelling for the most recent movement is different.

*Alternate Hourly Wave Count*

This wave count simply moves the degree of labelling within minuette wave (iii) all up one degree. What if it is over and this sideways movement is minuette wave (iv)?

If minuette wave (iii) is over and this sideways movement is minuette wave (iv) then it must be a very shallow correction so that it does not move back down into minuette wave (i) price territory below 1,221.34. If this price point is breached this alternate wave count will be invalidated and the main count will be correct.

If minuette wave (iv) is unfolding as a zigzag then it shows some alternation with the double zigzag of minuette wave (ii), but both are of the zigzag family and both are shallow corrections. The alternation is inadequate, which points to the main wave count being more likely. I would judge this alternate to have about a 40% probability at best.

If minuette wave (iii) is over then it did not manage to have stronger upwards momentum than minuette wave (i). Sometimes third waves are not stronger than first waves, but this is unusual. This also reduces the probability of this alternate wave count today.

If minuette wave (iii) is over then it was 3.60 longer than 0.618 the length of minuette wave (i). This limits minuette wave (v) to no longer than equality in length with minuette wave (iii) at 1,276.

Minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i at 1,262. This target still remains the same for both wave counts. The mid term expectation is exactly the same.

*This analysis is published about 06:04 p.m. EST.*

Another small green candlestick overall fits the Elliott wave count. The alternate hourly wave count (with a small adjustment) is now much more likely, and so today I am swapping over the main and alternate hourly wave counts.

**Summary: The short term target is 1,218. Overall I expect choppy overlapping slowing upwards movement for about another two or three days to complete a leading contracting diagonal. When that is done I expect to see a very deep second wave correction downwards. Alternatively, it is still possible that we may see a strong increase in upwards momentum in the next 24 hours, but this is now less likely. If that happens the target is now at 1,249.**

*Click on charts to enlarge*

Primary wave 4 is complete and primary wave 5 is unfolding. Primary wave 5 may only subdivide as an impulse or an ending diagonal. So far it looks most likely to be an impulse.

Within primary wave 5 intermediate wave (1) fits perfectly as an impulse. There is perfect alternation within intermediate wave (1): minor wave 2 is a deep zigzag lasting a Fibonacci five days and minor wave 4 is a shallow triangle lasting a Fibonacci eight days, 1.618 the duration of minor wave 2. Minor wave 3 is 9.65 longer than 1.618 the length of minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is just 0.51 short of 0.618 the length of minor wave 1. I am confident this movement is one complete impulse.

Intermediate wave (2) is an incomplete expanded flat correction. Within it minor wave A is a double zigzag. The downwards wave labelled minor wave B has a corrective count of seven and subdivides perfectly as a zigzag. Minor wave B is a 172% correction of minor wave A. This is longer than the maximum common length for a B wave within a flat correction at 138%, but within the allowable range of less than twice the length of minor wave A. Minor wave C may not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to minor wave A, and I think the target for it to end would best be calculated at minute degree. At this stage I would expect intermediate wave (2) to end close to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1) just below 1,281.

Intermediate wave (1) lasted a Fibonacci 13 weeks. So far intermediate wave (2) has just begun its seventh week. I will expect it may continue for another two weeks at least to total a Fibonacci eight, and be 0.618 the duration of intermediate wave (1). Alternatively, intermediate wave (2) may last a total Fibonacci 13 weeks equalling the duration of intermediate wave (1).

The target for primary wave 5 at this stage remains the same. At 956.97 it would reach equality in length with primary wave 1. However, if this target is wrong it may be too low. When intermediate waves (1) through to (4) within it are complete I will calculate the target at intermediate degree and if it changes it may move upwards. This is because waves following triangles tend to be more brief and weak than otherwise expected. A perfect example is on this chart: minor wave 5 to end intermediate wave (1) was particularly short and brief after the triangle of minor wave 4.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) above 1,345.22. I have confidence this price point will not be passed because the structure of primary wave 5 is incomplete because downwards movement from the end of the triangle of primary wave 4 does not fit as either a complete impulse nor an ending diagonal.

To see a prior example of an expanded flat correction for Gold on the daily chart, and an explanation of this structure, go here.

*Note: I am aware (thank you to members) that other Elliott wave analysts are calling now for the end of primary wave 5 at the low at 1,131. I am struggling to see how this downwards movement fits as a five wave impulse: I would label the second wave within it (labelled minor wave 2) intermediate wave (1), and the fourth wave intermediate wave (4) (labelled as a double zigzag for minor wave A). Thus a complete impulse down would have a second wave as a single zigzag and a fourth wave as a double zigzag, which would have inadequate alternation. Finally, the final fifth wave down would be where I have minor wave B within intermediate wave (2). This downwards wave has a cursory count of seven, and I do not think it subdivides as well as an impulse as it does as a zigzag. If any members come across a wave count showing possible subdivisions of a complete primary wave 5 I would be very curious to see it.

*Main Hourly Wave Count*

I will show hourly charts on a 2 hourly time frame today to fit all this movement in so you can see the differences between this main count and the alternate below.

This was yesterday’s alternate. It has increased in probability, mostly because the other wave count expected an imminent increase in upwards momentum which has not happened.

This main hourly wave count expects that minor wave C is beginning with a leading contracting diagonal for minute wave i.

Within this possible diagonal minuette wave (i) is a complete zigzag. Within leading diagonals the first, third and fifth waves are most commonly zigzags, but they may also be impulses.

Minuette wave (ii) is a complete zigzag, but much shallower than the common depth of between 0.66 to 0.81, at only 0.40 of minuette wave (i). This reduces the probability of this wave count, and is a good reason for seriously considering the alternate below.

Within the zigzag of minuette wave (iii) subminuette waves a and b are complete. Subminuette wave c looks like it may be completing as an ending contracting diagonal (it must subdivide as a five). At 1,218 subminuette wave c would reach 1.618 the length of subminuette wave a.

When minuette wave (iii) is a completed zigzag then minuette wave (iv) must overlap back into minuette wave (i) price territory, but may not move below the end of minuette wave (ii) at 1,175.18.

The diagonal is expected to be contracting, so minuette wave (iv) should be shorter than the length of minuette wave (ii) which was 29.59.

If this main hourly wave count is correct then when minute wave i is a completed leading contracting diagonal I would expect a following very deep second wave correction downwards for minute wave ii. When first waves unfold as leading diagonals they are normally followed by very deep second waves.

*Alternate Hourly Wave Count*

This is a variation on yesterday’s main wave count. Thanks to one of our members, Aleforex, for this idea.

This wave count sees minute wave i as over somewhat higher, as a five wave impulse. Ratios within minute wave i are: minuette wave (iii) is 1.01 short of equality with minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minuette waves (i) or (iii). This movement fits with MACD, with minuette wave (iii) having the strongest upwards momentum.

There is a slight truncation at the end of minuette wave (ii): subminuette wave c failed to move below the end of subminuette wave a by 0.73. This slightly reduces the probability of this wave count.

Minute wave ii is a complete zigzag, but it is a shallow correction, only just below the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i. This is only a little unusual, and I would not actually judge it to be unusual enough to reduce the probability of this wave count by much at all.

The problem with this wave count is the same as previously. If the middle of a third wave is approaching we should expect to see a strong increase in upwards momentum. This alternate may yet redeem itself when upwards movement substantially increases in the next 24 hours. If that does occur I would use this again as a main wave count.

At this stage this alternate has an overlapping series of four first and second waves, and requires a strong increase in upwards momentum. At 1,249 minute wave iii would reach equality in length with minute wave i. I am using the ratio of equality to calculate the target because minute wave ii was shallow and minute wave i is long.

The adjustment to this wave count now sees downwards corrections mostly within the new base channel about minute waves i and ii. Only micro wave 2 spikes below the channel. This has a better overall look.

Micro wave 2 may not move beyond the start of micro wave 1 below 1,186.90.

*This analysis is published about 06:42 p.m. EST.*

Price has moved mostly sideways to complete a small red candlestick. The main and new alternate Elliott wave counts both remain valid.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th November, 2014