Category Archives: Public Analysis

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st January, 2017

Price has moved sideways for the week. A new Elliott wave count fits sideways movement.

Summary: A new high above 55.24 would indicate an upwards breakout, and the target would be 55.60. A new low below 50.91 would indicate a downwards breakout, and the target would be 28.61 minimum, possibly 25.59.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

MONTHLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Within the bear market, cycle wave b is seen as ending in May 2011. Thereafter, a five wave structure downwards for cycle wave c begins.

Primary wave 1 is a short impulse lasting five months. Primary wave 2 is a very deep 0.94 zigzag lasting 22 months. Primary wave 3 is a complete impulse with no Fibonacci ratio to primary wave 1. It lasted 30 months.

Primary wave 4 is likely to exhibit alternation with primary wave 2. Primary wave 4 is most likely to be a flat, combination or triangle. Within all of these types of structures, the first movement subdivides as a three. The least likely structure for primary wave 4 is a zigzag.

Primary wave 4 is likely to end within the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree; intermediate wave (4) has its range from 42.03 to 62.58.

Primary wave 4 may end if price comes up to touch the upper edge of the maroon channel. The upper edge of this channel has been pushed up to sit on the end of intermediate wave (2) within primary wave 3.

Primary wave 4 is most likely to be shallow to exhibit alternation in depth with primary wave 2. So far it has passed the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio at 45.52. It may now continue to move mostly sideways in a large range.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory above 74.96.

At this stage, primary wave 4 has completed intermediate wave (A) only. Intermediate wave (B) is incomplete.

WEEKLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

The whole structure of primary wave 4 is seen here in more detail.

The first wave labelled intermediate wave (A) is seen as a double zigzag, which is classified as a three.

Intermediate wave (B) is also a three. This means primary wave 4 is most likely unfolding as a flat correction if my analysis of intermediate wave (A) is correct. Flats are very common structures.

Intermediate wave (B) began with a zigzag downwards. This indicates it too is unfolding most likely as a flat correction.

Within intermediate wave (B), the zigzag upwards for minor wave B is a 1.29 correction of minor wave A. This indicates intermediate wave (B) may be unfolding as an expanded flat, the most common type.

The normal range for intermediate wave (B) within a flat correction for primary wave 4 is from 1 to 1.38 the length of intermediate wave (A) giving a range from 26.06 to 16.33.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory above 74.96.

Within the larger expanded flat correction of primary wave 4, intermediate wave (B) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of intermediate wave (A) at 28.61 or below.

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave B is seen in this main wave count as a complete single zigzag. The upwards wave labelled minute wave a is seen as a five wave impulse.

Minor wave C downwards should have begun. Within minor wave C, minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 55.24.

Minor wave C downwards must subdivide as a five wave structure.

So far, minute wave i may be complete and minute wave ii may be an incomplete expanded flat correction. Within minute wave ii, minuette wave (c) must be a five wave structure that so far looks to be unfolding as an ending contracting diagonal that’s incomplete. The classic pattern equivalent is a rising wedge.

Contracting diagonals almost always end with a small overshoot of the 1-3 trend line. If this is seen, then expect an end to upwards movement as very likely.

Minuette wave (c) is very likely to make a slight new high above the end of minuette wave (a) at 54.32 to avoid a truncation and a very rare running flat.

A new low below 50.91 would invalidate the alternate wave count below and provide some confidence in this main wave count.

ALTERNATE DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave B is seen as an incomplete double zigzag. The first wave up labelled minute wave w is seen as a zigzag. This is the main difference between the two wave counts.

Minute wave y must subdivide as a zigzag. Sideways movement over the last few weeks may be a triangle within it for minuette wave (b).

Minuette wave (c) would be very likely to make at least a slight new high above the end of minuette wave (a) at 54.50 to avoid a truncation.

The normal range for minor wave B within the larger flat correction of intermediate wave (B) is from 1 to 1.38 the length of minor wave A, giving a range from 51.67 to 56.41. The target calculated for minuette wave (c) to end would see price end within this range.

In the short term, within minuette wave (c), the correction for subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i below 50.91.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

US Oil Chart Daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Price continues to move sideways with declining volume. Price is bound by resistance about 54.50 and support about 50.35. During this sideways consolidation, it is an upwards day which has strongest volume suggesting an upwards breakout is more likely than downwards. This supports the new alternate Elliott wave count.

ADX is flat and below 15 indicating the market is not currently trending; it is consolidating. The +DX and -DX lines are whipsawing about each other. There is no clear trend.

ATR is overall flat in agreement with ADX that Oil is consolidating.

On Balance Volume is bound by resistance and support. No breakout yet has occurred to indicate the next direction for price. OBV has come down to touch the yellow support line today. This may assist to halt the fall in price here. This supports the alternate Elliott wave count.

RSI is hovering about neutral. There is plenty of room for price to rise or fall.

Stochastics is returning from oversold.

A range bound approach to this market may now expect price to move higher and only end an upward swing when price finds resistance and Stochastics reaches overbought at the same time.

Bollinger Bands are tightly contracted. Volatility will return to this market. The longer Bollinger Bands remain contracted the more explosive the next movement may be.

This week’s classic technical analysis slightly supports the alternate Elliott wave count over the main Elliott wave count. The situation is still mostly unclear for Oil this week.

This analysis is published @ 01:47 a.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st January, 2017

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th January, 2017

Last analysis expected that a correction had begun for Silver. Price has moved lower for the week as expected, finding strong resistance so far at the upper trend line.

Summary: A deep correction may have begun now for Silver. The target is 16.26, but not below 15.638.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly chart is here.

ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

Silver weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The upwards wave labelled primary wave W is seen here as a complete zigzag. It will also fit as an impulse and this is seen on the alternate weekly chart below.

If primary wave W is a zigzag, then within intermediate wave (A) the correction labelled minor wave 4 is a rare running flat. This reduces the probability of this wave count. For this reason the alternate below is published. It makes no difference to expected direction nor to the target.

The channel about primary wave X is providing resistance at this time. This wave count expects that upon the next test this channel should be breached.

ALTERNATE WEEKLY CHART

Silver weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Upwards movement labelled here as primary wave A will fit neatly as a five wave impulse. Within primary wave A, it is intermediate wave (5) that is extended.

The problem of a running flat is resolved. Although this is labelled as an alternate wave count, it may have a higher probability than the main wave count. But it makes no difference at this stage to either expected direction or the target calculation.

Primary wave B is a complete double zigzag.

Primary wave C is most likely to move at least slightly above the end of primary wave A to avoid a truncation. The most likely target for primary wave C would be equality in length with primary wave A.

DAILY CHART

Silver daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Price may have found strong resistance at the upper edge of the gold best fit channel.

A five up may now be complete. This may be minor wave 1. Or the degree of labelling may be moved up one degree and it may be intermediate wave (1) or (A).

Following a five up the next three down may not move beyond its start below 15.638.

The most likely target for minor wave 2 would be the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1 at 16.26.

Minor wave 1 lasted a Fibonacci 21 days exactly. Minor wave 2 may be expected to last a Fibonacci 21 or 34 days; corrections are often more time consuming than the impulses they correct.

Minor wave 2 is most likely to subdivide as a zigzag. If it is a zigzag, then minute wave a would subdivide as an impulse.

Along the way down, corrections should continue to find strong resistance at the upper edge of the best fit gold channel.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Silver Chart Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

For the first three weeks of upwards movement, after the low in December 2016, volume supported the rise in price. The last upwards week completed with a decline in volume and a long upper wick, both of which are bearish. This supports the Elliott wave count.

On Balance Volume is now at resistance. This may assist to halt the rise in price. This also supports the Elliott wave count.

DAILY CHART

Silver Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The last two days completed red candlesticks. Overall, price moved lower with an increase in volume. This offers small support for the Elliott wave count.

ADX is declining, indicating the market is not currently trending. The +DX line has just crossed below the -DX line indicating a potential trend change from up to down, but the black ADX line must show an increase for a new downwards trend to be indicated.

ATR continues overall to decline. Like Gold, this is normal for both a counter trend movement and the first wave within a new trend.

RSI did not reach overbought, but Stochastics did and exhibited some divergence with price while extreme. This is common prior to trend changes, but it cannot pinpoint exactly when price will turn.

Overall, this classic technical analysis well supports the current Elliott wave count.

This analysis is published @ 12:13 a.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th January, 2017

EURUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th January, 2017

Last analysis of this pair was in July 2016. That analysis expected lower movement, which did happen in the long term, but the high was not seen until a few weeks later in August.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

EURUSD Monthly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The bigger picture expects the Euro to continue its overall downwards trajectory.

A large zigzag looks like it is unfolding downwards. If the triangle labelled cycle wave b is correct, then this downwards wave cannot be anything other than a zigzag. The triangle may not be labelled as a second wave correction within an impulse, because a second wave may not subdivide with a triangle as its sole corrective structure.

Cycle wave c must subdivide as a five wave structure. It looks like it is unfolding as an impulse.

Primary waves 1 and 2 are complete within the impulse. The target for primary wave 3 expects it to exhibit the most common Fibonacci ratio to primary wave 1.

Primary wave 3 may only subdivide as a simple impulse. The structure of primary waves 2 and 3 can be seen on the weekly chart below.

The maroon channel is drawn as a best fit, and it is important. Draw the first trend line from the end of cycle wave b to the highs within primary wave 3 (better shown on the weekly chart below). The upper edge of this channel is where price is finding strong resistance, with one overshoot for the price shock of the 9th November, 2016.

WEEKLY CHART

EURUSD Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave 2 subdivides as a double zigzag. The second zigzag in the double deepened the correction achieving its purpose. However, this structure has mostly a sideways look.

Within intermediate wave (3), there is inadequate alternation in structure between the corrections of minor waves 2 and 4 because both subdivide as expanded flats. But there is alternation in duration and depth: minor wave 2 is deep at 0.75 and longer lasting at 20 weeks while minor wave 4 is shallow at 0.46 and more brief at 2 weeks. The alternation is within the middle: minor wave 2 has a time consuming B wave while minor wave 4 has a brief B wave. Minor wave 4 does not overlap minor wave 1 price territory. All rules are met.

Intermediate wave (4) may end if price again comes up to touch the upper maroon trend line. A mid line is added that is also proving useful for temporary support and resistance.

Intermediate wave (4) may end within the price territory of minor wave 4, one degree lower.

Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory above 1.10972.

The daily chart below shows all movement from the end of intermediate wave (2).

DAILY CHART

EURUSD Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (3) may be a complete impulse.

Minor wave A subdivides as a three within intermediate wave (4). Minor wave B is a quick zigzag and is a 1.04 length of minor wave A, indicating a regular flat.

The target for intermediate wave (4) to end may see it fall slightly short of the maroon trend line. The target expects minor wave C to exhibit an uncommon ratio between A and C waves within a regular flat. Regular flats are usually sideways structures and this one looks more like an expanded flat.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EURUSD Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

This pair has been sitting along the upper range of Bollinger Bands now for several days. This is common during its trends, so this does not indicate an end to upwards movement here. The length of time is a warning though that the upwards trend is nearing its end.

EURUSD tends to find resistance or support about the Fibonacci 13 day moving average during its trends. If a full daily candlestick prints below this line, then it would be an indication the upwards trend may be over.

At this stage, there is no divergence between price and RSI at highs nor between price and Stochastics at highs. There is room for upwards movement to continue. RSI is not overbought.

ADX today indicates an upwards trend in place: the ADX line is above 15 and rising, and the +DX line is above the -DX line. The trend is young; the ADX line is below both directional lines.

ATR is flat to declining as price moves higher in choppy overlapping movement. This upwards movement looks like a counter trend movement within a larger downwards trend.

Trading advice is given below for Elliott Wave Gold members only. Members must log in to see the next section.

Continue reading EURUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th January, 2017

Natural Gas Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Video – 16th Jan, 2017

Natural Gas Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th January, 2017

Summary: Natural Gas is in an upwards trend. The last correction ended at support on the 9th of January. The target for upwards movement to end is about 4.304.

MAIN ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

Natural Gas Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This weekly wave count for Natural Gas begins at February 2014 candlestick. Data from BarChart does not go back in history far enough to begin the count earlier.

From February 2014 candlestick, a large downwards wave is complete to the low on February 2016. This subdivides neatly as a five wave impulse. If this piece of the analysis is correct, then it should be followed by a three up that may not make a new high above 6.489.

This main wave count sees the three up as incomplete. It should be expected that this main wave count is more likely while price remains within the Elliott channel. Assume the trend remains the same until proven otherwise.

DAILY CHART

Natural Gas Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave b is seen as an incomplete zigzag. So far, within the zigzag, primary waves A and B are complete. Primary wave C is incomplete and continuing upwards.

So far only intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete within primary wave C. Intermediate wave (2) is a common expanded flat correction. This wave count now expects to see an increase in upwards momentum as a third wave for intermediate wave (3) unfolds.

A target for intermediate wave (3) is not calculated because it does not fit with the higher target of primary wave C.

Within intermediate wave (3), no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 3.099. If this main wave count is invalidated, then the alternate below would be used.

ALTERNATE ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

Natural Gas Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This wave count is identical to the main wave count up to the end of primary wave B within cycle wave b.

It is possible that primary wave C is a complete five wave impulse, which means it is possible that cycle wave b is over.

DAILY CHART

Natural Gas Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave C must be seen as a complete five wave impulse. To do that it does not have as good a look as the main wave count for this piece of movement.

A new high above 3.903 would invalidate this alternate wave count and that would add confidence to the main wave count.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

Natural Gas Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Natural Gas is in an upwards trend. The short term average is above the mid term, which is above the long term. At this stage, all three averages are pointing upwards.

ADX disagrees though. It is declining, indicating the market is consolidating and not trending. Price has been constrained within a large range from about 3.105 to 3.705, areas of prior strong resistance and support.

The upwards trend reached an extreme level at the high on the 9th of December with ADX above 35 and above both the directional lines. Thereafter, price has moved sideways in a large range. This has dropped ADX down to the low 20s, giving room again for a trend to continue.

While ADX remains pointing downwards, one approach to this market would be to use support and resistance lines on price in conjunction with Stochastics to indicate when each swing ends and the next begins. At this time, price has turned up from support and Stochastics has turned up from oversold. It is reasonable to expect price to continue overall upwards from here to reach resistance. If Stochastics reaches overbought at that time, then the upwards swing may end.

Two of the three last upwards days show some increase in volume. This supports the idea that price may continue higher at least to resistance here.

Price has turned up after reaching the extreme lower edge of Bollinger Bands. With price now at the mid line of BBs, watch it carefully here. This may offer resistance.

Finally, the strongest piece of technical analysis here is On Balance Volume. The break above the purple resistance line should be taken seriously. This is a bullish signal. OBV often leads price when using trend lines.

This analysis is published @ 12:55 a.m. EST on 17th January, 2017.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th January, 2017

Upwards movement continued, falling just short of resistance about 1,210 to reach 1,207.2 for the session.

The Elliott wave count remains the same, and this upwards movement has now lasted a Fibonacci 21 days.

Summary: It is reasonably likely now that upwards movement is over for now and a deep correction may have begun. Price confidence would come with a new low now below 1,183.15. If the gold channel on the hourly chart is breached by downwards movement, then strong confidence may be had that a deep correction has begun. The first target is 1,155, but it may be deeper than this.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here. Last historic analysis video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

MAIN ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

DAILY CHART

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This main wave count has a better fit for prior movement. To see the difference between this main wave count and the alternate below please refer to last historic analysis linked to above.

This main wave count expects Gold has had a primary degree trend change in December 2016. The new upwards wave is either a primary degree third wave, or a primary degree zigzag to complete a double zigzag.

Intermediate wave (1) is reasonably likely to be over today, lasting a Fibonacci 21 days / sessions. The long upper wick on today’s candlestick is bearish. While price remains within the gold channel, it must be accepted that minor wave 5 may extend higher. A breach of the gold channel on the daily chart would provide strong indication of a trend change.

The first in a series of second wave corrections for Gold’s new impulses is usually very deep. Intermediate wave (2) is expected to be at least 0.618 the depth of intermediate wave (1), and very likely may be deeper. It may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,123.08.

The upcoming correction for intermediate wave (2) should present an opportunity to join a new trend.

Intermediate wave (2) may be at least as long in duration as intermediate wave (1), and fairly likely it may be longer. A Fibonacci 21 or 34 sessions will be the expectation. Corrections are often more time consuming than impulses.

HOURLY CHART

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Upwards movement from the low on 15th of December will subdivide as a completed five wave impulse. This may be intermediate wave (1) as labelled, or the degree may be moved down one and it may only be minor wave 1 (as noted on the daily chart).

Minor wave 5 may have extended further today. There is no longer divergence with price and MACD for the final fifth wave. Strength is common for Gold’s fifth waves; this is not always seen, but Gold often exhibits blow off tops at all time frames. The overshoot of the upper edge of the channel looks fairly typical for a final fifth wave, but it also looks typical for the middle of a third wave. For this reason, while price remains within the channel, it must still be accepted that it is possible that it could continue yet higher.

Within intermediate wave (1), Fibonacci ratios are: minor wave 3 is 3.85 short of 6.854 the length of minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is now just 0.56 short of 0.618 the length of minor wave 3.

Indication of a trend change would be a breach of the lower edge of the gold channel. That would provide reasonable confidence in a trend change.

A new low below 1,183.15 would provide price confidence in a trend change. At that stage, downwards movement could not be a second wave correction within a final fifth wave of minute wave v, so minute wave v would have to be over.

ALTERNATE ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

DAILY CHART

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This alternate wave count expects that Gold is still within a bear market. Targets for new lows can be seen on weekly and monthly charts.

Within the bear market, a primary degree correction is underway.

Primary wave 2 is most likely to subdivide as a zigzag. So far it looks like a five up is either complete now or very close to completion. This may be intermediate wave (A). Intermediate wave (A) may now be complete lasting a total Fibonacci 21 sessions.

It is also possible to move the degree of labelling all down one degree within upwards movement for intermediate wave (A). It is possible that only minor wave 1 within intermediate wave (A) is complete. Either way the invalidation point remains the same. If a five up is complete, then the following three down may not move beyond its start below 1,123.08.

Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 above 1,374.81.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The fall in price to the last low was not supported by volume, so it should be suspicious.

The rise in price for the first two weeks has good support from volume (volume increased during the second week). The current week is incomplete, so no conclusion may be drawn at this stage for this week.

Price has found strong support about prior lines of support and resistance, about 1,140 and 1,130.

RSI almost reached oversold at the last low.

There is a Morning Star candlestick pattern at the low. At the weekly chart level, this is a reasonable reversal signal.

It would be reasonable to conclude that Gold has seen a trend change.

DAILY CHART

Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Another upwards day comes with a decline in volume. The rise in price today was not supported by volume, so it is suspicious. The long upper wick on today’s candlestick is bearish.

Price may have found resistance just below the horizontal line at 1,210 and close to the mid term Fibonacci 55 day moving average. Price has now closed four days in a row close to the upper edge of Bollinger Bands. A reversion to the mean is a reasonable expectation either here or soon. However, during Gold’s trends price can remain close to the edge of Bollinger Bands for reasonable periods of time, so this alone is not enough to indicate a high in place today.

The long term trend for Gold is still indicated as down with the long term 200 day moving average still pointing downwards. The mid term average may now be flattening off and the short term Fibonacci 13 day average is pointing up and providing support.

The short term average is still below the mid term average, which is still below the long term average. At this stage, the long term and mid term trends are still indicated as down. This would favour the alternate Elliott wave count. However, using moving averages in this manner is a lagging indicator.

On Balance Volume remains bullish. Support at the purple trend line is now some distance away.

RSI is bullish and exhibits no divergence with price to indicate weakness.

ADX is increasing and the +DX line is above the -DX line, indicating an upwards trend in place. With ADX below 35, there is room for this trend to continue. But this trend is in extreme territory with the black ADX line above both directional lines.

ATR is flat as price moves higher. This is normal for a correction within a trend, but also for the start of a new trend for Gold.

Stochastics is overbought, but this may remain extreme for reasonable periods of time during a trending market. This indicator points to an extreme trend, but it does not signal a trend change here.

Bollinger Bands are widening as price moves higher; this movement has volatility.

Overall, this analysis is still bullish. The bottom line is still that while price remains within the channel it may continue higher and an upwards trend is in place. The trend is nearing extreme though, so look out for a trend change and a pullback to come either here or soon.

GDX DAILY CHART

GDX Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Although the daily candlestick is red, GDX today made a higher high and a higher low (the definition of upwards movement). The balance of volume today was upwards, and it was lighter than yesterday. The rise in price was not supported well by volume.

The larger trend for GDX looks to more likely be upwards as all three moving averages are all pointing up. However, if there is an upwards trend, it is very new. The short term average is still below the mid term, and both are still below the long term. A crossover of the short term above the mid term average would be a bullish signal.

This movement still looks very much like a consolidation within an upwards trend. Price may be finding support at the downwards sloping gold line.

ADX today is increasing, indicating an upwards trend.

ATR is overall increasing as price overall rises. This trend looks healthy.

On Balance Volume trend lines are today slightly redrawn (the lower line did not work over the last two sessions). If OBV can break below the yellow line, then a deeper correction may be underway. But while this line provides support, then it may serve to hold up the correction and force it to be shallow.

Stochastics is overbought still, but this can remain extreme for reasonable periods of time during a trending market.

Bollinger Bands are widening as price moves upwards indicating the trend is normal and healthy. BB’s are now nearing extreme though, so some contraction may now be expected soon that may see a deeper pullback or more time consuming sideways consolidation in price.

This analysis is published @ 06:57 p.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th January, 2017

USDJPY Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th January, 2017

An update to the last USDJPY analysis, which was done July 15, 2016.

This pair has moved higher as expected. There is now structure of upwards movement to analyse.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

USDJPY Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The big picture sees a five up complete followed by a three down complete.

The risk to this analysis is that the three down is just the first in a double zigzag for a deeper correction. It is possible that cycle wave II could continue lower. It may not move beyond the start of cycle wave I below 75.573.

WEEKLY CHART

USDJPY Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The downwards wave labelled cycle wave II fits best as a single zigzag. Primary wave C is very long in relation to primary wave A, but all subdivisions fit.

A five up is not yet complete within the new upwards movement. When primary wave 1 is complete, then the following correction for primary wave 2 should last months and should be deep. It may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 below 99.075.

DAILY CHART

USDJPY Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The black channel is a best fit. The upper edge may provide resistance.

The cyan trend line may provide support. This may halt the fall in price here today for minor wave 4. However, there is still a little room for price to move lower for another day or so, and an increase in volume for the downwards session today shows volume supports the current fall in price.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory below 104.315.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

USDJPY Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Price and RSI showed double divergence at the last high. Price may now find some support about the mid term Fibonacci 55 day moving average.

The trend is up: the short term average is above the mid term, which is above the long term and the long and mid term averages are pointing upwards. The short term average is pointing downwards as a correction within the upwards trend unfolds.

ADX reached an extreme at the last high, above 40 (35 and above is extreme reading). The black ADX line was above both the +DX and -DX lines also indicating an extreme trend. This current correction has brought ADX down below 35, but it remains above both directional lines. Further downwards movement by price may be required to bring it down further.

Price is supported by volume and increasing ATR as it falls from the last high (see Elliott wave charts for volume data). This fall in price looks incomplete.

Stochastics is almost oversold. If it reaches oversold, then the fall in price may end within three days.

If price falls further, it may be only for a few days and only down to about the 55 day average.

This analysis is published @ 10:55 p.m. EST.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th January, 2017

The target for upwards movement to end was at 58.05. It has not been met. The Elliott wave count remains the same.

Summary: Downwards movement is now expected to at least 28.61. The target is at 25.59. A new low below 49.96 would add confidence that price has turned downwards.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

MONTHLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Within the bear market, cycle wave b is seen as ending in May 2011. Thereafter, a five wave structure downwards for cycle wave c begins.

Primary wave 1 is a short impulse lasting five months. Primary wave 2 is a very deep 0.94 zigzag lasting 22 months. Primary wave 3 is a complete impulse with no Fibonacci ratio to primary wave 1. It lasted 30 months.

Primary wave 4 is likely to exhibit alternation with primary wave 2. Primary wave 4 is most likely to be a flat, combination or triangle. Within all of these types of structures, the first movement subdivides as a three. The least likely structure for primary wave 4 is a zigzag.

Primary wave 4 is likely to end within the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree; intermediate wave (4) has its range from 42.03 to 62.58.

Primary wave 4 may end if price comes up to touch the upper edge of the maroon channel. The upper edge of this channel has been pushed up to sit on the end of intermediate wave (2) within primary wave 3.

Primary wave 4 is most likely to be shallow to exhibit alternation in depth with primary wave 2. So far it has passed the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio at 45.52. It may now continue to move mostly sideways in a large range.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory above 74.96.

At this stage, primary wave 4 has completed intermediate wave (A) only. Intermediate wave (B) is incomplete.

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (B) still looks like it is unfolding as a flat correction. Within intermediate wave (B), minor wave A is a zigzag and minor wave B is now a complete zigzag.

Minor wave B is a 1.29 length of minor wave A. This is within the normal range of 1 to 1.38. This indicates intermediate wave (B) is an expanded flat, as within it minor wave B is longer than 1.05 the length of minor wave A.

It must be accepted that minor wave B could continue higher while price remains above the confidence point at 49.96. A new low below the start of minuette wave (v) at 49.96 could not be a second wave correction within the last fifth wave up, so at that stage confidence may be had in a trend change.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory above 74.96.

Minor wave C downwards must subdivide as a five wave structure.

Because intermediate wave (A) fits so well as a three wave structure, it is still most likely that intermediate wave (B) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of intermediate wave (A) at 28.61. When an A wave subdivides as a three, then a flat correction is indicated.

The normal range for intermediate wave (B) within a flat correction is from 1 to 1.38 the length of intermediate wave (A) giving a range from 26.06 to 16.33.

Price has broken below the lower edge of the channel, which was drawn on the daily chart in the last analysis. Price behaviour around the upwards sloping green trend line suggests a trend change. Price may now find resistance about the downwards sloping green trend line.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

US Oil Chart Daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

For the last five sessions, the two downwards sessions have stronger volume than the upwards sessions. This suggests the trend may now be down.

ADX has today indicated a possible trend change to downwards: the -DX line has crossed above the +DX line. The ADX line is declining though, so no new trend is yet indicated.

The short term Fibonacci 21 day moving average has today turned downwards, but it remains above the mid and long term averages and those both remain pointing upwards. If there has been a trend change, then it is very early.

Price found resistance about 54.15 and 55.55. The next line of support is currently held at 52.05 and then at 50.30.

ATR has had a period of decline as price moved higher. This supports the Elliott wave count because it sees that upwards movement as a B wave. Now ATR may be beginning to increase.

On Balance Volume gives no indication yet of direction. It remains constrained below resistance and above support.

RSI has just crossed over to bearish territory today.

Stochastics is bearish and is not extreme. There is plenty of room for price to fall.

Bollinger Bands are tightly contracted.

This analysis is published @ 10:54 p.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th January, 2017