Category Archives: Public Analysis

Natural Gas Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Video – 16th Jan, 2017

Natural Gas Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th January, 2017

Summary: Natural Gas is in an upwards trend. The last correction ended at support on the 9th of January. The target for upwards movement to end is about 4.304.

MAIN ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

Natural Gas Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This weekly wave count for Natural Gas begins at February 2014 candlestick. Data from BarChart does not go back in history far enough to begin the count earlier.

From February 2014 candlestick, a large downwards wave is complete to the low on February 2016. This subdivides neatly as a five wave impulse. If this piece of the analysis is correct, then it should be followed by a three up that may not make a new high above 6.489.

This main wave count sees the three up as incomplete. It should be expected that this main wave count is more likely while price remains within the Elliott channel. Assume the trend remains the same until proven otherwise.

DAILY CHART

Natural Gas Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave b is seen as an incomplete zigzag. So far, within the zigzag, primary waves A and B are complete. Primary wave C is incomplete and continuing upwards.

So far only intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete within primary wave C. Intermediate wave (2) is a common expanded flat correction. This wave count now expects to see an increase in upwards momentum as a third wave for intermediate wave (3) unfolds.

A target for intermediate wave (3) is not calculated because it does not fit with the higher target of primary wave C.

Within intermediate wave (3), no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 3.099. If this main wave count is invalidated, then the alternate below would be used.

ALTERNATE ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

Natural Gas Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This wave count is identical to the main wave count up to the end of primary wave B within cycle wave b.

It is possible that primary wave C is a complete five wave impulse, which means it is possible that cycle wave b is over.

DAILY CHART

Natural Gas Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave C must be seen as a complete five wave impulse. To do that it does not have as good a look as the main wave count for this piece of movement.

A new high above 3.903 would invalidate this alternate wave count and that would add confidence to the main wave count.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

Natural Gas Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Natural Gas is in an upwards trend. The short term average is above the mid term, which is above the long term. At this stage, all three averages are pointing upwards.

ADX disagrees though. It is declining, indicating the market is consolidating and not trending. Price has been constrained within a large range from about 3.105 to 3.705, areas of prior strong resistance and support.

The upwards trend reached an extreme level at the high on the 9th of December with ADX above 35 and above both the directional lines. Thereafter, price has moved sideways in a large range. This has dropped ADX down to the low 20s, giving room again for a trend to continue.

While ADX remains pointing downwards, one approach to this market would be to use support and resistance lines on price in conjunction with Stochastics to indicate when each swing ends and the next begins. At this time, price has turned up from support and Stochastics has turned up from oversold. It is reasonable to expect price to continue overall upwards from here to reach resistance. If Stochastics reaches overbought at that time, then the upwards swing may end.

Two of the three last upwards days show some increase in volume. This supports the idea that price may continue higher at least to resistance here.

Price has turned up after reaching the extreme lower edge of Bollinger Bands. With price now at the mid line of BBs, watch it carefully here. This may offer resistance.

Finally, the strongest piece of technical analysis here is On Balance Volume. The break above the purple resistance line should be taken seriously. This is a bullish signal. OBV often leads price when using trend lines.

This analysis is published @ 12:55 a.m. EST on 17th January, 2017.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th January, 2017

Upwards movement continued, falling just short of resistance about 1,210 to reach 1,207.2 for the session.

The Elliott wave count remains the same, and this upwards movement has now lasted a Fibonacci 21 days.

Summary: It is reasonably likely now that upwards movement is over for now and a deep correction may have begun. Price confidence would come with a new low now below 1,183.15. If the gold channel on the hourly chart is breached by downwards movement, then strong confidence may be had that a deep correction has begun. The first target is 1,155, but it may be deeper than this.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here. Last historic analysis video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

MAIN ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

DAILY CHART

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This main wave count has a better fit for prior movement. To see the difference between this main wave count and the alternate below please refer to last historic analysis linked to above.

This main wave count expects Gold has had a primary degree trend change in December 2016. The new upwards wave is either a primary degree third wave, or a primary degree zigzag to complete a double zigzag.

Intermediate wave (1) is reasonably likely to be over today, lasting a Fibonacci 21 days / sessions. The long upper wick on today’s candlestick is bearish. While price remains within the gold channel, it must be accepted that minor wave 5 may extend higher. A breach of the gold channel on the daily chart would provide strong indication of a trend change.

The first in a series of second wave corrections for Gold’s new impulses is usually very deep. Intermediate wave (2) is expected to be at least 0.618 the depth of intermediate wave (1), and very likely may be deeper. It may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,123.08.

The upcoming correction for intermediate wave (2) should present an opportunity to join a new trend.

Intermediate wave (2) may be at least as long in duration as intermediate wave (1), and fairly likely it may be longer. A Fibonacci 21 or 34 sessions will be the expectation. Corrections are often more time consuming than impulses.

HOURLY CHART

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Upwards movement from the low on 15th of December will subdivide as a completed five wave impulse. This may be intermediate wave (1) as labelled, or the degree may be moved down one and it may only be minor wave 1 (as noted on the daily chart).

Minor wave 5 may have extended further today. There is no longer divergence with price and MACD for the final fifth wave. Strength is common for Gold’s fifth waves; this is not always seen, but Gold often exhibits blow off tops at all time frames. The overshoot of the upper edge of the channel looks fairly typical for a final fifth wave, but it also looks typical for the middle of a third wave. For this reason, while price remains within the channel, it must still be accepted that it is possible that it could continue yet higher.

Within intermediate wave (1), Fibonacci ratios are: minor wave 3 is 3.85 short of 6.854 the length of minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is now just 0.56 short of 0.618 the length of minor wave 3.

Indication of a trend change would be a breach of the lower edge of the gold channel. That would provide reasonable confidence in a trend change.

A new low below 1,183.15 would provide price confidence in a trend change. At that stage, downwards movement could not be a second wave correction within a final fifth wave of minute wave v, so minute wave v would have to be over.

ALTERNATE ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

DAILY CHART

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This alternate wave count expects that Gold is still within a bear market. Targets for new lows can be seen on weekly and monthly charts.

Within the bear market, a primary degree correction is underway.

Primary wave 2 is most likely to subdivide as a zigzag. So far it looks like a five up is either complete now or very close to completion. This may be intermediate wave (A). Intermediate wave (A) may now be complete lasting a total Fibonacci 21 sessions.

It is also possible to move the degree of labelling all down one degree within upwards movement for intermediate wave (A). It is possible that only minor wave 1 within intermediate wave (A) is complete. Either way the invalidation point remains the same. If a five up is complete, then the following three down may not move beyond its start below 1,123.08.

Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 above 1,374.81.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The fall in price to the last low was not supported by volume, so it should be suspicious.

The rise in price for the first two weeks has good support from volume (volume increased during the second week). The current week is incomplete, so no conclusion may be drawn at this stage for this week.

Price has found strong support about prior lines of support and resistance, about 1,140 and 1,130.

RSI almost reached oversold at the last low.

There is a Morning Star candlestick pattern at the low. At the weekly chart level, this is a reasonable reversal signal.

It would be reasonable to conclude that Gold has seen a trend change.

DAILY CHART

Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Another upwards day comes with a decline in volume. The rise in price today was not supported by volume, so it is suspicious. The long upper wick on today’s candlestick is bearish.

Price may have found resistance just below the horizontal line at 1,210 and close to the mid term Fibonacci 55 day moving average. Price has now closed four days in a row close to the upper edge of Bollinger Bands. A reversion to the mean is a reasonable expectation either here or soon. However, during Gold’s trends price can remain close to the edge of Bollinger Bands for reasonable periods of time, so this alone is not enough to indicate a high in place today.

The long term trend for Gold is still indicated as down with the long term 200 day moving average still pointing downwards. The mid term average may now be flattening off and the short term Fibonacci 13 day average is pointing up and providing support.

The short term average is still below the mid term average, which is still below the long term average. At this stage, the long term and mid term trends are still indicated as down. This would favour the alternate Elliott wave count. However, using moving averages in this manner is a lagging indicator.

On Balance Volume remains bullish. Support at the purple trend line is now some distance away.

RSI is bullish and exhibits no divergence with price to indicate weakness.

ADX is increasing and the +DX line is above the -DX line, indicating an upwards trend in place. With ADX below 35, there is room for this trend to continue. But this trend is in extreme territory with the black ADX line above both directional lines.

ATR is flat as price moves higher. This is normal for a correction within a trend, but also for the start of a new trend for Gold.

Stochastics is overbought, but this may remain extreme for reasonable periods of time during a trending market. This indicator points to an extreme trend, but it does not signal a trend change here.

Bollinger Bands are widening as price moves higher; this movement has volatility.

Overall, this analysis is still bullish. The bottom line is still that while price remains within the channel it may continue higher and an upwards trend is in place. The trend is nearing extreme though, so look out for a trend change and a pullback to come either here or soon.

GDX DAILY CHART

GDX Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Although the daily candlestick is red, GDX today made a higher high and a higher low (the definition of upwards movement). The balance of volume today was upwards, and it was lighter than yesterday. The rise in price was not supported well by volume.

The larger trend for GDX looks to more likely be upwards as all three moving averages are all pointing up. However, if there is an upwards trend, it is very new. The short term average is still below the mid term, and both are still below the long term. A crossover of the short term above the mid term average would be a bullish signal.

This movement still looks very much like a consolidation within an upwards trend. Price may be finding support at the downwards sloping gold line.

ADX today is increasing, indicating an upwards trend.

ATR is overall increasing as price overall rises. This trend looks healthy.

On Balance Volume trend lines are today slightly redrawn (the lower line did not work over the last two sessions). If OBV can break below the yellow line, then a deeper correction may be underway. But while this line provides support, then it may serve to hold up the correction and force it to be shallow.

Stochastics is overbought still, but this can remain extreme for reasonable periods of time during a trending market.

Bollinger Bands are widening as price moves upwards indicating the trend is normal and healthy. BB’s are now nearing extreme though, so some contraction may now be expected soon that may see a deeper pullback or more time consuming sideways consolidation in price.

This analysis is published @ 06:57 p.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th January, 2017

USDJPY Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th January, 2017

An update to the last USDJPY analysis, which was done July 15, 2016.

This pair has moved higher as expected. There is now structure of upwards movement to analyse.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

USDJPY Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The big picture sees a five up complete followed by a three down complete.

The risk to this analysis is that the three down is just the first in a double zigzag for a deeper correction. It is possible that cycle wave II could continue lower. It may not move beyond the start of cycle wave I below 75.573.

WEEKLY CHART

USDJPY Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The downwards wave labelled cycle wave II fits best as a single zigzag. Primary wave C is very long in relation to primary wave A, but all subdivisions fit.

A five up is not yet complete within the new upwards movement. When primary wave 1 is complete, then the following correction for primary wave 2 should last months and should be deep. It may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 below 99.075.

DAILY CHART

USDJPY Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The black channel is a best fit. The upper edge may provide resistance.

The cyan trend line may provide support. This may halt the fall in price here today for minor wave 4. However, there is still a little room for price to move lower for another day or so, and an increase in volume for the downwards session today shows volume supports the current fall in price.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory below 104.315.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

USDJPY Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Price and RSI showed double divergence at the last high. Price may now find some support about the mid term Fibonacci 55 day moving average.

The trend is up: the short term average is above the mid term, which is above the long term and the long and mid term averages are pointing upwards. The short term average is pointing downwards as a correction within the upwards trend unfolds.

ADX reached an extreme at the last high, above 40 (35 and above is extreme reading). The black ADX line was above both the +DX and -DX lines also indicating an extreme trend. This current correction has brought ADX down below 35, but it remains above both directional lines. Further downwards movement by price may be required to bring it down further.

Price is supported by volume and increasing ATR as it falls from the last high (see Elliott wave charts for volume data). This fall in price looks incomplete.

Stochastics is almost oversold. If it reaches oversold, then the fall in price may end within three days.

If price falls further, it may be only for a few days and only down to about the 55 day average.

This analysis is published @ 10:55 p.m. EST.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th January, 2017

The target for upwards movement to end was at 58.05. It has not been met. The Elliott wave count remains the same.

Summary: Downwards movement is now expected to at least 28.61. The target is at 25.59. A new low below 49.96 would add confidence that price has turned downwards.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

MONTHLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Within the bear market, cycle wave b is seen as ending in May 2011. Thereafter, a five wave structure downwards for cycle wave c begins.

Primary wave 1 is a short impulse lasting five months. Primary wave 2 is a very deep 0.94 zigzag lasting 22 months. Primary wave 3 is a complete impulse with no Fibonacci ratio to primary wave 1. It lasted 30 months.

Primary wave 4 is likely to exhibit alternation with primary wave 2. Primary wave 4 is most likely to be a flat, combination or triangle. Within all of these types of structures, the first movement subdivides as a three. The least likely structure for primary wave 4 is a zigzag.

Primary wave 4 is likely to end within the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree; intermediate wave (4) has its range from 42.03 to 62.58.

Primary wave 4 may end if price comes up to touch the upper edge of the maroon channel. The upper edge of this channel has been pushed up to sit on the end of intermediate wave (2) within primary wave 3.

Primary wave 4 is most likely to be shallow to exhibit alternation in depth with primary wave 2. So far it has passed the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio at 45.52. It may now continue to move mostly sideways in a large range.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory above 74.96.

At this stage, primary wave 4 has completed intermediate wave (A) only. Intermediate wave (B) is incomplete.

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (B) still looks like it is unfolding as a flat correction. Within intermediate wave (B), minor wave A is a zigzag and minor wave B is now a complete zigzag.

Minor wave B is a 1.29 length of minor wave A. This is within the normal range of 1 to 1.38. This indicates intermediate wave (B) is an expanded flat, as within it minor wave B is longer than 1.05 the length of minor wave A.

It must be accepted that minor wave B could continue higher while price remains above the confidence point at 49.96. A new low below the start of minuette wave (v) at 49.96 could not be a second wave correction within the last fifth wave up, so at that stage confidence may be had in a trend change.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory above 74.96.

Minor wave C downwards must subdivide as a five wave structure.

Because intermediate wave (A) fits so well as a three wave structure, it is still most likely that intermediate wave (B) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of intermediate wave (A) at 28.61. When an A wave subdivides as a three, then a flat correction is indicated.

The normal range for intermediate wave (B) within a flat correction is from 1 to 1.38 the length of intermediate wave (A) giving a range from 26.06 to 16.33.

Price has broken below the lower edge of the channel, which was drawn on the daily chart in the last analysis. Price behaviour around the upwards sloping green trend line suggests a trend change. Price may now find resistance about the downwards sloping green trend line.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

US Oil Chart Daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

For the last five sessions, the two downwards sessions have stronger volume than the upwards sessions. This suggests the trend may now be down.

ADX has today indicated a possible trend change to downwards: the -DX line has crossed above the +DX line. The ADX line is declining though, so no new trend is yet indicated.

The short term Fibonacci 21 day moving average has today turned downwards, but it remains above the mid and long term averages and those both remain pointing upwards. If there has been a trend change, then it is very early.

Price found resistance about 54.15 and 55.55. The next line of support is currently held at 52.05 and then at 50.30.

ATR has had a period of decline as price moved higher. This supports the Elliott wave count because it sees that upwards movement as a B wave. Now ATR may be beginning to increase.

On Balance Volume gives no indication yet of direction. It remains constrained below resistance and above support.

RSI has just crossed over to bearish territory today.

Stochastics is bearish and is not extreme. There is plenty of room for price to fall.

Bollinger Bands are tightly contracted.

This analysis is published @ 10:54 p.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th January, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th December, 2016

Upwards movement was expected for the short term, but this is not what happened. Price moved sideways to complete an inside day that closed red.

Summary: Upwards movement is expected for about two or seven days to 1,187, and that may complete a small correction. Thereafter, price may again fall.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly and weekly analysis is here, video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Price may be now in a small consolidation for minor wave 4.

The middle of the third wave may be complete for primary wave 1.

This wave count still suffers from a problem of disproportion between minute wave ii and the two prior second wave corrections one and two degrees higher. Minute wave ii should be quicker than minor wave 2 and especially intermediate wave (2). The fact that it is not must reduce the probability of this wave count.

If minor wave 3 is over, then it has no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1.

Ratios within minor wave 3 are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is 2.52 short of 0.618 the length of minute wave iii.

Minute wave v fits as a five wave impulse on the hourly chart even though it does not look quite right on the daily chart.

The blue channel here is a best fit. Draw the first trend line from the ends of minor waves 1 to 3, then push a parallel copy up to contain most of this movement except the spike for minute wave ii. Minor wave 4 may find resistance at the upper edge of the channel if it gets that high.

Minor wave 2 was a deep 0.77 zigzag lasting four days. Minor wave 4 may be a more shallow flat, combination or triangle. These tend to be longer lasting structures than zigzags, so at this stage an expectation of a Fibonacci eight or thirteen sessions would be reasonable. So far it has lasted six and is incomplete.

Minor wave 4 may end within the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree. Minute wave iv has its range from 1,211.60 to 1,232.48. This expectation looks now to be too high at this stage. If the target on the hourly chart is breached, then this range may be used.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory above 1,305.32.

The target for intermediate wave (3) is at 1,095 where it would reach 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave 4 is least likely to unfold as a zigzag, so it is unlikely at this stage to be over at the high labelled minute wave a.

If minor wave 4 unfolds as the most likely flat, combination or triangle, then within it minute wave a is most likely to be a zigzag. This is complete.

When A waves subdivide as threes, there is no invalidation point for the following B wave because they may make new price extremes beyond the start of the A wave as in expanded flats and running triangles. The most common range for minute wave b would be from 1 to 1.38 the length of minute wave a at 1,158.03 to 1,149.77. Minute wave b is now within this range and is a 1.28 length of minute wave a.

If minor wave 4 unfolds as a flat correction, then within it the minimum requirement for minute wave b is 0.9 the length of minute wave at at 1,155.62. This has been met.

If minor wave 4 unfolds as a triangle, then there is no minimum nor maximum length for minute wave b within it. It must only subdivide as a three. Minor wave 4 may be unfolding as a running triangle.

If minor wave 4 unfolds as a combination, then the first structure within the combination may be a complete zigzag labelled minute wave w. The double combination now would be joined by a three in the opposite direction labelled minute wave x, which now looks complete. The second structure in a possible double combination may now be either a flat or triangle labelled minute wave y. If minute wave y unfolds as an expanded flat, then it may include a new price extreme beyond its start below 1,151.96. If the invalidation point is breached, then a combination would be indicated; but that looks unlikely at this stage though because the upwards movement labelled minuette wave (i) looks like a five and not a three.

It is still impossible to tell at this stage which Elliott wave structure minor wave 4 will complete as, only to say it is least likely to be a zigzag. There are still over 20 possible structures it may be, so it must be understood that as it continues this analysis at the hourly chart level must be flexible and that the labelling of minor wave 4 may still change in coming days.

At this stage, it looks most likely (about 50%) that minor wave 4 is unfolding as an expanded flat correction. Within the expanded flat, minute wave c must continue higher and must subdivide as a five wave structure. At 1,187 minute wave c would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave a. Within minute wave c, minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) below 1,151.96.

Minute wave c may last another two days to see minor wave 4 total a Fibonacci eight days. If it cannot complete in just two more days, then it may continue for a further five to total a Fibonacci thirteen.

ALTERNATE DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

The larger structure of primary wave X (or primary wave 2) may be either a double zigzag or a double combination. The second structure in this double for primary wave Y may be either a zigzag (for a double zigzag) or a flat or a triangle (for a double combination).

If the next wave up is primary wave 3, then it may only subdivide as an impulse.

It is my judgement at this stage that it is more likely primary wave X will be a double zigzag due to the relatively shallow correction of intermediate wave (X). Although intermediate wave (X) is deep at 0.71 the length of intermediate wave (W), this is comfortably less than the 0.9 minimum requirement for a flat correction. Within combinations the X wave is most often very deep and looks like a B wave within a flat.

However, there is no minimum nor maximum requirement for X waves within combinations, so both a double zigzag and double combination must be understood to be possible. A double zigzag is more likely and that is how this analysis shall proceed.

Within the second zigzag of primary wave X, intermediate wave (Y) is now incomplete at the hourly chart level. At 1,106 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A.

ALTERNATE HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

There is so much overlapping within the downwards wave labelled minute wave v, it is still not possible to see this as either a complete impulse nor a complete ending diagonal. The conclusion must be that more downwards movement is required to complete the structure if this alternate wave count is correct.

The lack of momentum, the overlapping, and the breach of the channel that was drawn on this hourly chart for last analysis have all further reduced the probability of this wave count, which is still not supported by classic technical analysis.

Subminuette wave iii may now be complete. Subminuette wave iv may not move into subminuette wave i price territory above 1,169.47.

The target remains the same. At 1,106 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Gold Weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Price is falling as volume is declining. The fall in price is not supported by volume. Price is falling of its own weight, and it can continue to do this for some time. But for a healthy sustainable trend volume should be supporting the movement and that is not the case here.

There is no support line here or close by for On Balance Volume.

RSI is not yet extreme. There is still a little room for price to fall further.

DAILY CHART

Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

A small inside day moved price overall lower to close red, and this does not have support from volume as it declined. Volume is declining as price moves slowly lower over the last several days.

On Balance Volume has provided resistance today. A break above the purple resistance line would be a reasonable bullish signal.

RSI is extreme and there is triple bullish divergence with price at recent lows. This supports the main Elliott wave count over the alternate, fairly strongly, and it is difficult to see how price could fall strongly lower from here. If price does make new lows, it is unlikely to be by much or for long at this point.

ADX still indicates a downwards trend is in place. ATR still disagrees as it is declining. Bollinger Bands are contracting. This trend looks tired and weak. It would be very reasonable to expect either some consolidation for a week or so, or a trend change about here.

Stochastics also is extreme and exhibits divergence with price.

The larger trend may be now down as the 200 day moving average has rolled over and is now pointing down. This also supports the main Elliott wave count.

Both the mid and short term averages are pointing down and price is below all three. The trend is down.

GDX DAILY CHART

GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Price is moving essentially sideways and is range bound for GDX. Resistance is about 22.25 and support is about 20.15. During this range bound period, it is the downwards day of the 23rd of November that has strongest volume (ignoring the first day of the 14th of November) suggesting a downwards breakout may be more likely than upwards. This technique often works for Gold (not always). It remains to be seen how reliable it is for GDX.

Monday’s downwards session comes with a decline in volume, so the fall in price is not supported. Now Tuesday’s upwards session comes with a small increase in volume offering some small support for a rise in price.

ADX today has slightly increased again indicating a possible downwards trend still. ATR is clearly declining. Bollinger Bands are clearly contracting. Price is consolidating. This market is not currently trending. A bear flag pattern may be forming, delineated by blue trend lines. This is a continuation pattern. It is supported by declining volume.

Using the measure rule, a target of about 14.50 would be expected. First, to have confidence in this target, a downwards breakout needs to be seen below the lower blue trend line. If this is accompanied by a spike in volume, it would be given more weight. But note that for a downwards breakout stronger volume is not always necessary as the market may fall of its own weight.

On Balance Volume today may be breaking upwards above resistance at the purple trend line. This in conjunction with some small increase in volume for the session is a bullish indicator. Price may break out of the pattern upwards. This signal contradicts the implications of the flag pattern, which expects a downwards breakout.

Looking at how GDX has behaved with On Balance Volume trend lines recently (blue lines on OBV), it is noted that on the 27th of September a downwards breakout correctly predicted the next direction for price four and five days later, and on the 8th of November another downwards breakout by OBV correctly predicted the direction for price two days later.

However, on the 19th of October an upwards breakout did not necessarily correctly predict the next direction for price. Price did move higher to a new high on the 2nd of November, but this was still within a larger consolidation and the trend remained down.

In conclusion, this signal today from OBV for GDX is given some weight, but an upwards breakout from the flag pattern would still be required by price for reasonable confidence in an upwards breakout.

While the mid term trend is down and the short term trend is flat, the larger trend may still be up for GDX with the 200 day moving average still pointing upwards.

This analysis is published @ 09:05 p.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th December, 2016

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st November, 2016

Last analysis expected upwards movement to begin the new week. So far this is what has happened.

Summary: Upwards movement is expected from here. The target at 1,533 may be met in about six months time. There is divergence with price and Stochastics and RSI indicating bears are exhausted. If this view is wrong today, then Gold may make one final new low to a target at 1,203 before turning. A new high above 1,221.62 would add confidence in a trend change.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here.

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

The larger structure of primary wave X may be either a double zigzag or a double combination. The second structure in this double for primary wave Y may be either a zigzag (for a double zigzag) or a flat or a triangle (for a double combination).

It is my judgement at this stage that it is more likely primary wave X will be a double zigzag due to the relatively shallow correction of intermediate wave (X). Although intermediate wave (X) is deep at 0.71 the length of intermediate wave (W), this is comfortably less than the 0.9 minimum requirement for a flat correction. Within combinations the X wave is most often very deep and looks like a B wave within a flat.

However, there is no minimum nor maximum requirement for X waves within combinations, so both a double zigzag and double combination must be understood to be possible. A double zigzag is more likely and that is how this analysis shall proceed.

Within the second structure, minor wave A should be a five wave structure. This now looks complete.

Minor wave B found resistance at the lower edge of the wide parallel channel about primary wave X. Minor wave C may now be complete at the hourly chart level. Minor wave C has no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave A. Intermediate wave (Y) is just 0.02 longer than equality in length with intermediate wave (W).

At 1,533 primary wave Y would reach equality in length with primary wave W.

Primary wave W lasted seven months. Primary wave Y may be expected to be about even in duration.

HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave B completed as a regular contracting triangle. Gold often exhibits surprisingly short waves out of its triangles.

Minor wave C has moved slightly below the end of minor wave A, avoiding a truncation. The structure now looks complete at the hourly chart level.

Within minor wave C, there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minute waves i, iii and v.

Within the new upwards movement, the spike labelled subminuette wave i may disappear from BarChart data tomorrow. It is not noticed on other Gold data feeds.

Intermediate wave (A) should subdivide as a five wave structure if cycle wave a is a double zigzag. Within intermediate wave (A), the upcoming correction for minor wave 2 may not move beyond its start below 1,204.05.

When there is a clear five up on the hourly chart, then more confidence may be had in this wave count.

A new high above 1,221.62 would add confidence. At that stage, the second hourly chart below would be invalidated.

SECOND HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

What if minor wave B was not a triangle but completed as a zigzag? Minor wave C may have begun earlier.

Minor wave C must complete as a five wave structure. It may need on final new low to end minute wave v within it.

Within minor wave C, there is alternation between the zigzag of minute wave ii and the combination of minute wave iv.

At 1,203 minute wave v would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i. There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii, so a ratio for minute wave v is likely.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory above 1,221.62.

While this wave count is entirely possible, it is judged to have a lower probability than the first hourly chart today.

ALTERNATE DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

This alternate wave count expects that the large upwards zigzag from the low of 1,046 in December 2015 to the last high of 1,374 in July 2016 is a complete correction. The trend is still down; Gold is still in a bear market.

If there has been a cycle degree trend change at the high labelled cycle wave b, then the new wave down must begin with a five wave structure. At this stage, there looks to be too much overlapping for an impulse, so a leading diagonal is considered.

Within leading diagonals, sub-waves 2 and 4 must subdivide as zigzags. Sub-waves 1, 3 and 5 are most commonly zigzags but sometimes may also appear to be impulses.

Within this structure, all sub-waves subdivide as zigzags. This wave count meets all Elliott wave rules. This diagonal looks correct.

Primary wave 1 lasted 94 days. Primary wave 2 may initially be expected to last about a Fibonacci 55 or 89 days. It should be a big three wave structure.

At this stage, there is no divergence in expected direction between this alternate and the main wave count. The structure of upwards movement, if it is clearly a three or five, may assist to tell us which wave count is correct in coming weeks. For now this alternate must be judged to have a low probability due to the problems outlined. It is published to consider all possibilities.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Gold Weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Last week completes with a smaller range and a substantial decline in volume. The fall in price is not supported by volume, so it is suspicious. It looks like bears are tired.

Price may find support here about 1,200.

On Balance Volume has come down to almost touch the yellow support line. There is a very little room for more downwards movement. This line should be expected to provide support and assist to halt the fall in price either here or very soon.

RSI is not extreme and does not exhibit divergence with price. There is room still for price to fall further.

DAILY CHART

Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

A small upwards day with higher high and a higher low has moved price higher. The upper wick of today’s candlestick is relatively long and the real body is small. This is not a strong upwards day. Volume is light; the rise in price today did not have support from volume. This candlestick looks like a small counter trend correction.

Sometimes Gold’s new waves do begin with some hesitancy. However, at this stage, today’s candlestick favours the second hourly chart which expects Gold to make one more slight new low before turning.

There are no support lines at the daily chart level for On Balance Volume to help stop a fall in price here.

There is still mid term divergence between price and RSI and Stochcastics at the two lows of the 7th of October and the 18th of November. This is regular bullish divergence and indicates bears are exhausted.

ADX has slightly increased further today. It still indicates a downwards trend is in place. This is a lagging indicator though as it is based upon a 14 day average.

If there is a downwards trend, then it is showing some signs of weakness; ATR is declining.

Bollinger Bands continue to widen though indicating a trending market.

The Elliott wave count here is indicating a trend change before these indicators. If the main Elliott wave count is wrong, then the second hourly chart may be right and Gold may make one more low before turning.

This analysis is published @ 09:02 p.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st November, 2016

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1st September, 2016

Both hourly Elliott wave counts expected a new low before some upwards movement. Both hourly counts remain valid.

Summary: Look out now for surprises to the upside. With price at support, a green daily candlestick, and divergence between price and Stochastics expect more upwards movement here. The target for the Elliott wave count for a third wave to end is now at 1,585.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last weekly charts are here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Thereafter, this wave count differs from the two alternates.

This main wave count will expect primary wave 3 to be longer than primary wave 1. Because this is very common, this is the main wave count and it expects the most common scenario is most likely. At this stage, the target for primary wave 3 is removed. A new target for intermediate wave (3) is calculated: at 1,585 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Intermediate wave (2) may now be complete ending just below the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1) and lasting 40 days. However, price remains within the small pink channel and has not yet offered confirmation of a trend change. It must be accepted that intermediate wave (2) may yet move lower. Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,200.07

Primary wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse.

At this stage, a new high above 1,330.01 could not be a continuation of minute wave iv, so at that stage minute wave iv and minor wave C would have to be over. A new high above 1,330.01 would provide strong confidence in a trend change and the resumption of the prior upwards trend.

Keep the small narrow pink channel on daily and hourly charts. Draw a channel about intermediate wave (2) using Elliott’s technique for a correction (blue lines). Price is finding support at the lower edge. The lower edge of this channel may stop price from falling further.

With this wave count expecting a third wave at two large degrees to begin, look out for surprises to the upside at this stage.

HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure.

The structure may now be complete. This is the main wave count today because of the green daily candlestick. At the daily chart level, it looks like minor wave C is over. Price is finding support about the lower edge of both the pink and blue channels copied over from the daily chart.

There would be no Fibonacci ratio within intermediate wave (2) between minor waves A and C.

Ratios within minor wave C are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii, and minute wave v is 1.15 short of 0.382 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) is just 0.07 short of 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 1.42 short of equality in length with minuette wave (i).

Ratios within minute wave v are: minuette wave (iii) is just 0.08 short of 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) has no adequate Fibonacci ratio to either of minuette waves (i) or (iii).

A new high above 1,315.89 would invalidate the triangle on the alternate hourly chart below. That would add a little confidence to this main wave count.

A new high above 1,330.01 would invalidate the alternate hourly wave count below and provide further reasonable confidence in this main wave count.

Intermediate wave (1) lasted 27 days and intermediate wave (2) lasted 40 days. Intermediate wave (3) may be reasonably expected to last longer than intermediate wave (1) in both time and price. A Fibonacci 55 days would be a first expectation.

No second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 1,302.93.

ALTERNATE HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Both hourly wave counts today see minute wave iii over at the low for 30th of August.

It is possible that a final new low is yet to be made, that minute wave iv is incomplete. When minute wave iv is a complete structure, then a final wave down for minute wave v may be needed to complete the whole structure of minor wave C.

At this stage, minute wave iv may be unfolding sideways as a running contracting triangle. Within a contracting triangle, minuette wave (c) may not move beyond the end of minuette wave (a) above 1,315.89.

When minuette wave (c) is complete, then minuette wave (d) down may not move reasonably below the end of minuette wave (b) at 1,302.93. A contracting triangle must see minuette wave (d) end above the end of minuette wave (b). A barrier triangle must see minuette wave (d) end about the same level as minuette wave (b); as long as the (b)-(d) trend line remains essentially flat the triangle would remain valid. In practice, this means minuette wave (d) may end slightly below the end of minuette wave (b). This is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white.

Thereafter, a final small wave up for minuette wave (e) would most likely end short of the (a)-(c) trend line and may not move beyond the end of minuette wave (c).

If the triangle is invalidated with a new high above 1,315.89, then it would be possible that minute wave iv could be unfolding as an expanded flat or a combination.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory above 1,330.01. This wave count would be invalidated above 1,330.01 leaving only the main wave count.

ALTERNATE DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible that primary wave 3 is over and shorter than primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 shows stronger volume than primary wave 1 (see technical analysis weekly chart).

If primary wave 3 is over, then the current consolidation for Gold would be primary wave 4.

Primary wave 2 was a relatively shallow 0.35 expanded flat correction. Primary wave 4 may be unfolding as a deeper zigzag which would exhibit perfect alternation.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory below 1,282.68.

Primary wave 5 would be limited to no longer than equality in length with primary wave 3, so that the core Elliott wave rule stating a third wave may not be the shortest is met. Primary wave 5 would have a limit at 1,477.77 if it has begun at today’s low.

The hourly charts would be exactly the same except for the degree of labelling.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Gold Weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

A strong downwards week with an increase in volume supports the main and alternate III wave counts. Overall, volume is still declining and price remains range bound.

The prior two green weekly candlesticks had long upper shadows which was bearish.

Price may find some support about 1,310.

On Balance Volume at the end of last week has come down to find support at the purple trend line. This may help to stop price falling much further.

RSI is not extreme. There is some hidden bullish divergence with price and RSI: RSI has made a lower low below the low of 25th of July but price has made a higher low. This indicates some weakness to this downwards movement. It is more likely to be a smaller correction than a sustainable trend.

DAILY CHART

Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Volume for today’s upwards day comes with slightly lighter volume than yesterday’s downwards day, but overall volume has not substantially reduced. The volume profile is short term slightly more bearish than bullish.

Price found support very close to the lower edge of the support zone today, which is 1,305 – 1,310. With this area being the lower edge of the larger consolidation, which began back on 7th of July, it would be reasonable to expect downwards movement to end here or very soon indeed.

Stochastics exhibits multi day bullish divergence with price: Stochastics has made a higher low above the prior low for 26th of August as price made a slight new low today. With Stochastics oversold and now exhibiting divergence, it would be reasonable to expect downwards movement to end here or very soon indeed.

On Balance Volume is giving a weak bullish signal today with a move up and away from the yellow line. This line is offering support, but it has recently been weakened with a breach and return. For this reason the signal is only weak. OBV may find some resistance now at the purple line.

RSI is not extreme. There is still room for price to fall further. There is no divergence between price and RSI to indicate weakness.

ADX and ATR are both declining, indicating that the market is not trending; it is consolidating. Bollinger Bands remain contracted and slightly narrowed today. All three of these indicators are in agreement that this market is consolidating.

After a period of declining ATR, it should be expected that range will again begin to increase at some stage.

After a period of declining and low volatility, it should be expected that volatility will again return to the market and Bollinger Bands will again widen at some stage.

The shorter 13 day moving average is declining but remains above the mid term 55 day moving average. The 55 day average is also still declining. The long term 200 day moving average is still increasing and price remains above it. The longer term upwards trend should be assumed to remain intact. With the shorter term average still above the mid term average, it should be assumed that this downwards swing is a correction and not necessarily the start of a new downwards trend.

This analysis is published @ 06:37 p.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1st September, 2016

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st August, 2016

Downwards movement was expected from yesterday’s analysis.

Summary: While price remains within the narrow pink channel, then assume the short term downwards trend remains intact. If the channel is breached and if price moves above 1,330.01, then assume the upwards trend has most likely returned.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last weekly charts are here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Thereafter, this wave count differs from the two alternates.

This main wave count will expect primary wave 3 to be longer than primary wave 1. Because this is very common, this is the main wave count and it expects the most common scenario is most likely. At 1,582 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1.

Only intermediate wave (1) so far is complete within primary wave 3. Intermediate wave (2) may be close to completion. It may find support at the lower edge of the base channel drawn about primary waves 1 and 2. Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,200.07

Primary wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse.

Minute wave iv should now be complete. A breach of the dark blue channel drawn about intermediate wove (2) would provide trend channel confirmation that intermediate wave (2) is over and intermediate wave (3) is underway.

At this stage, a new high above 1,330.01 could not be a continuation of minute wave iv, so at that stage minute wave iv and minor wave C would have to be over. A new high above 1,330.01 would provide strong confidence in a trend change and the resumption of the prior upwards trend.

At 1,288 minute wave v would reach equality in length with minute wave i. If this target is wrong, it may be slightly too high. Price may find strong support at the lower edge of the base channel; this trend line may stop price moving lower.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,200.07.

Primary wave 2 lasted 56 days (one more than a Fibonacci 55). So far intermediate wave (2) is more brief in duration. It has lasted 40 days and may be just one or two days away from completion.

Keep the small narrow pink channel on daily and hourly charts. Draw a channel about intermediate wave (2) using Elliott’s technique for a correction (blue lines). Price is finding support at the lower edge. If this wave count is wrong, then it may be in expecting more downwards movement. The lower edge of this channel may stop price from falling further.

With this wave count expecting a third wave at two large degrees to begin very soon, look out for surprises to the upside at this stage.

HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure.

Within minor wave C, the structure may be still incomplete. Minute wave iv may have been a relatively brief and shallow zigzag exhibiting only alternation in depth with minute wave ii.

At 1,288 minute wave v would reach equality in length with minute wave i.

So far, for this main wave count, the structure within minute wave v looks incomplete. There is too much overlapping for the middle of its third wave to have passed. This wave count expects to see another one or two days of downwards movement.

Within minuette wave (iii), no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 1,315.89.

ALTERNATE HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

This alternate is new.

It is possible that minute wave iv was over more recently as labelled. There is still only alternation in depth between minute waves ii and iv. Both are zigzags.

Minute wave iv may be very close to completion. It may end when price again touches the lower edge of the dark blue channel. After a final slight new low below the end of minuette wave (iii) at 1,305.32, then intermediate wave (2) could be over.

Thereafter, a breach of the narrow pink channel that contains recent downwards movement would provide some confidence in a trend change. A new high above 1,315.89 would provide first price confidence. A new high above 1,330.01 would provide stronger confidence. At that stage, upwards movement could not be a continuation of minute wave iv, so minute waves iv and v would have to be over.

ALTERNATE DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible that primary wave 3 is over and shorter than primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 shows stronger volume than primary wave 1 (see technical analysis weekly chart).

If primary wave 3 is over, then the current consolidation for Gold would be primary wave 4.

Primary wave 2 was a relatively shallow 0.35 expanded flat correction. Primary wave 4 may be unfolding as a deeper zigzag which would exhibit perfect alternation.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory below 1,282.68.

Primary wave 5 would be limited to no longer than equality in length with primary wave 3, so that the core Elliott wave rule stating a third wave may not be the shortest is met. Primary wave 5 would have a limit of 174.84.

This wave count expects more downwards movement to complete a five wave impulse for intermediate wave (C) in the same way as the main wave count expects a five wave impulse down to complete minor wave C. Only the degree of labelling differs; this wave count is one degree higher.

The hourly charts would be exactly the same except for the degree of labelling.

It is no longer possible for intermediate wave (4) to be a triangle. Within a contracting or barrier triangle, minor wave C may not move beyond the end of minor wave A. If intermediate wave (4) is labelled as a triangle, then minor wave A would be at the low of 1,310.84. The new low today to 1,305.82 invalidates this idea, so this may not be minor wave C.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Gold Weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

A strong downwards week with an increase in volume supports the main and alternate III wave counts. Overall, volume is still declining and price remains range bound.

The prior two green weekly candlesticks had long upper shadows which was bearish.

Price may find some support about 1,310.

On Balance Volume at the end of last week has come down to find support at the purple trend line. This may help to stop price falling much further.

RSI is not extreme. There is some hidden bullish divergence with price and RSI: RSI has made a lower low below the low of 25th of July but price has made a higher low. This indicates some weakness to this downwards movement. It is more likely to be a smaller correction than a sustainable trend.

DAILY CHART

Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Price is still range bound and today has reached support. During this range bound period, which began back on 7th of June, it is two upwards days of 8th of July and 26th of August that have strongest volume. This suggests an upwards breakout is more likely than downwards. This trick usually (not always) works well for Gold. This supports the Elliott wave counts.

Volume today is slightly stronger than yesterday, but it is still relatively light.

Price should be expected to find strong support about 1,310 to 1,305. This is an area of prior resistance and support.

On Balance Volume may be finding support today at the yellow trend line. A break below this yellow line would be a bearish signal, but only a weak one because this line has recently been weakened. A break above the purple line would be a bullish signal.

RSI is not yet extreme. There is room for price to fall further. There is no divergence today to indicate weakness between price and RSI.

ADX continues to decline indicating the market is not trending. The +DX and -DX lines continue to whipsaw about each other, typical of a consolidating market. ATR continues to agree as it too is declining.

No clear trend is evident. This downwards movement looks like a swing within a larger consolidation.

Stochastics is oversold and exhibits multi day divergence now with price. With price now at support, an end to this downwards swing would be a reasonable expectation. An upwards swing should be expected to begin about here.

Bollinger Bands are beginning to widen for five days in a row. A trend may be about to return.

The shorter term 13 day moving average is pointing downwards and price is below it. The short term trend is down. The mid term 55 day moving average has just turned and is also pointing downwards today. This indicates the mid term trend may have changed to down. The shorter 13 day average has not yet crossed below the mid term 55 day average yet though, so a trend change has not yet been indicated from up to down.

This analysis is published @ 09:32 p.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st August, 2016

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th August, 2016

The main Elliott wave count has been confirmed with a new low below 1,310.84.

Summary: Some more downwards movement this week looks most likely, to about 1,279. If this target is wrong, it may be a little too low. A new high now above 1,330.01 would confirm downwards movement as over and a third wave up as just beginning.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last weekly charts are here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Thereafter, this wave count differs from the two alternates.

This main wave count will expect primary wave 3 to be longer than primary wave 1. Because this is very common, this is the main wave count and it expects the most common scenario is most likely. At 1,582 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1.

Only intermediate wave (1) so far is complete within primary wave 3. Intermediate wave (2) may be close to completion. It may find support at the lower edge of the base channel drawn about primary waves 1 and 2. Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,200.07

Primary wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory above 1,330.01.

At 1,279 minor wave C would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave A. Price may end downwards movement when it finds support at the lower edge of the maroon base channel drawn about primary waves 1 and 2. Because this target at 1,279 would expect an overshoot of the lower edge of the base channel, the target may be too low. Support at the base channel may not allow price to move this low.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,200.07.

Primary wave 2 lasted 56 days (one more than a Fibonacci 55). So far intermediate wave (2) is more brief in duration. It has lasted 39 days and may be just a few days away from completion.

Draw a small channel about minor wave C, using Elliott’s technique, and copy it over to the hourly chart.

At this stage, it is just possible to see a complete structure for minor wave C downwards. A new high above 1,330.01 at any stage short term could not be a continuation of minor wave C, so at that stage minor wave C would have to be over. A new high above 1,330.01 would tell us now that intermediate wave (2) should be over and intermediate wave (3) upwards should be underway.

HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure.

Minor wave C is unfolding as an impulse. The question today is whether or not minute wave iv within it is complete.

Minute wave ii was a deep 0.73 zigzag lasting six days. Given the guideline of alternation, minute wave iv would most likely be a very shallow sideways flat, combination or triangle. To have good proportion with minute wave ii, it is likely that minute wave iv will last at least three or four days, if not longer.

Within flats, combinations and triangles, the first wave subdivides as a three. This would now be a complete zigzag for minuette wave (a) or (w).

Within expanded flats and running triangles, minuette wave (b) may make a new price extreme beyond the start of minuette wave (a). The new low today may be part of minute wave iv. There is no maximum limit for X waves within combinations; they too may make new price extremes beyond the start of W waves.

If minute wave iv is a flat correction, then it would be an expanded flat. These are very common structures. The normal range for minuette wave (b) would be 1 to 1.38 the length of minuette wave (a), at 1,315.42 to 1,311.82. Minuette wave (b) is now longer than the common length. There is no rule stating a maximum limit for B waves within flat corrections, but there is an Elliott wave convention which states that when the potential B wave is longer than twice the length of the potential A wave the idea of a flat correction should be discarded based upon extremely low probability. That price point here would be below 1,305.95.

So far minuette wave (b) should be complete and is 1.78 the length of minuette wave (a).

If minute wave iv is unfolding as an expanded flat, then a target for minuette wave (c) would be just below the invalidation point at 1,330. Minuette wave (c) would be close to 2.618 the length of minuette wave (a). Minuette wave (c) would be extremely likely to make at least a slight new high above the end of minuette wave (a) at 1,324.89 to avoid a truncation and a very rare running flat.

If minute wave iv is unfolding as a triangle, then minuette wave (c) may not move beyond the end of minuette wave (a) above 1,324.89. A triangle would be invalid above this point. Thereafter, price should move sideways in an ever decreasing range for another few days for a triangle to be complete. MACD should hover about zero. At this stage, a triangle does not look likely because MACD has moved too far below zero.

If minute wave iv is unfolding as a combination, then within it the first structure labelled minuette wave (w) would be a complete zigzag. The zigzag would be joined by a three in the opposite direction, a zigzag labelled minuette wave (x), which should now be over. The second structure in the double would very likely be a flat correction but may also be a triangle. It should end about the same level as minuette wave (w) at 1,324.85, so that the whole structure moves sideways. Minuette wave (y) should last about two or three days.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory above 1,330.01.

ALTERNATE HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible that minute wave iv is over as a brief and very shallow zigzag. Minute wave iv would exhibit little alternation with minute wave ii: they would both be zigzags. There would be some alternation in depth: minute wave ii was deep and minute wave iv was shallow. There would be a little alternation within the structure: minute wave ii had a long complicated B wave and minute wave iv had a brief B wave.

Minute wave ii lasted six days. If minute wave iv is over already, it would have lasted only one day. The proportions at the daily chart level do not look very good, but sometimes Gold does exhibit fourth waves which are more brief and shallow than its second waves. This tendency normally shows up in a third wave though and not so often in a C wave.

If minute wave iv is over, then at 1,288 minute wave v would reach equality in length with minute wave i. This would see the base channel on the daily chart only very slightly overshot.

Within minute wave v, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 1,324.89.

Due to the lack of alternation and the poor proportions between minute waves iv and ii, this wave count is possible but has a low probability. It should only be used if price makes a new low short term below 1,305.95.

ALTERNATE DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible that primary wave 3 is over and shorter than primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 shows stronger volume than primary wave 1 (see technical analysis weekly chart).

If primary wave 3 is over, then the current consolidation for Gold would be primary wave 4.

Primary wave 2 was a relatively shallow 0.35 expanded flat correction. Primary wave 4 may be unfolding as a deeper zigzag which would exhibit perfect alternation.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory below 1,282.68.

Primary wave 5 would be limited to no longer than equality in length with primary wave 3, so that the core Elliott wave rule stating a third wave may not be the shortest is met. Primary wave 5 would have a limit of 174.84.

This wave count expects more downwards movement to complete a five wave impulse for intermediate wave (C) in the same way as the main wave count expects a five wave impulse down to complete minor wave C. Only the degree of labelling differs; this wave count is one degree higher.

The hourly chart would be exactly the same except for the degree of labelling.

It is also possible that primary wave 4 may be a regular contracting triangle. If sideways movement continues in an ever decreasing range, then that idea would be published. At this stage, a zigzag looks more likely because the subdivisions have a slightly better fit.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Gold Weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

A strong downwards week with an increase in volume supports the main and alternate III wave counts. Overall, volume is still declining and price remains range bound.

The prior two green weekly candlesticks had long upper shadows which was bearish.

Price may find some support about 1,310.

On Balance Volume at the end of last week has come down to find support at the purple trend line. This may help to stop price falling much further.

RSI is not extreme. There is some hidden bullish divergence with price and RSI: RSI has made a lower low below the low of 25th of July but price has made a higher low. This indicates some weakness to this downwards movement. It is more likely to be a smaller correction than a sustainable trend.

DAILY CHART

Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Overall, price remains range bound with resistance about 1,375 and support about 1,310 – 1,305. This range bound period began back on 7th of July. During this range bound period, it is the two upwards days of 8th of July and 26th of August which have strongest volume suggesting an upwards breakout is more likely than downwards. This supports all three Elliott wave counts.

Yesterday saw an upwards day with lighter volume; the rise in price was not supported by volume. Now a strong downwards day comes with a slight further decline in volume. A decline in volume is typical of a consolidating market, and volume should be expected to decline further towards the end of the consolidation. In the short term, this decline in volume suggests some upwards reaction about here, so this supports the main hourly Elliott wave count over the alternate hourly count.

The 55 day moving average has not provided support.

On Balance Volume has moved down and away from the purple line which is now strengthened and is providing resistance. OBV may find some support at the yellow line, but this line has been weakened recently with a breach.

Price should find support in the area of 1,310 to 1,305.

RSI is not extreme. There is room for price to rise or fall. There is no divergence today between price and RSI to indicate weakness.

ADX continues to decline and the +DX and -DX lines are whipsawing about each other. ADX indicates this market is not trending. ATR agrees as it too continues overall to decline.

Stochastics is oversold. Price has not yet reached support at 1,310 though, so a little more downwards movement from price may be expected before this downwards swing is over. There is some small day to day divergence between Stochastics and price: price today made a slight new low but Stochastics did not. This indicates weakness in price. Price may not be able to get down to touch support. This divergence suggests that downwards movement may be over for this swing.

Bollinger Bands are widening now for four days in a row. A trend may be beginning to return. If it is, then it would be down. However, this contradicts ADX and ATR.

This analysis is published @ 07:30 p.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th August, 2016